Bank economists are not known for taking big risks, so when a local analyst predicted that the region had seen the peak of unemployment for the recession, it might have been a fair bet.
Looking at the regional data for the Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area for March, PNC economist Robert Dye said, "My expectation is that February will hold up as the peak month."
February marked the largest single change in the unemployment rate in 21 years by rising seven-tenths of a percentage point from January to hit 8.8 percent.
In a report being released today, Pennsylvania Department of Labor statistics show that the regional unemployment rate fell back four-tenths of a percentage point for March to 8.4 percent.
The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is made up of the seven counties surrounding Pittsburgh, has seen its unemployment rate slowly tick up since March 2007 when the rate was 4 percent, the lowest it had been since March 1974 when Richard M. Nixon was president. For the past three years, the rate has been rising, typically by less than a half of a percentage point per month, and usually just by a tenth or two-tenths of a percentage point.
That made the increase in February's rate to 8.8 percent from the January mark of 8.1 percent remarkable, because not only was it the highest rate of the recession but also the largest jump even with the rate seasonally adjusted.
Today's numbers moderate that gain, showing the rate is down four-tenths of a percentage point from February -- or looking at it with a longer view, up three-tenths from January or two-tenths from December.
"The smaller the region, the 'lumpier' the data," Mr. Dye said, but he added, "I do think the data is consistent with slow improvement."
The monthly unemployment report is a compilation of two surveys: a survey of households in which people are questioned about their employment status and a separate survey of employers, known as the establishment survey, in which businesses are asked about their payrolls. It is the second survey that determines how many jobs the region has.
The State Department of Labor and Industry's report this morning shows that not only did the Pittsburgh area gain 1,300 jobs in March, but it also was the first time in three years that none of the metropolitan areas in the state lost jobs.
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http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10117/1053576-407.stm#ixzz0mHPEPipL
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