WTF - isn't it kind of early for a tropical depression off Africa

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201092_sat.html#a_topad

First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L

An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. Surface winds measured by the 8:23am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite revealed that 92L already has a closed surface circulation, though the circulation is large and elongated. Top winds seen by ASCAT were about 25 mph. METEOSAT visible satellite loops show a large and impressive circulation that is steadily consolidating, with spiral bands building inward towards center, and upper-level outflow beginning to be established to the northwest and north.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[rotund1]

1. Er, no, it's right on schedule.

...

[malaise]

5. You're wrong

Storms at this time of year form around Central America. Some cross from the Pacific into the Caribbean sea or the Gulf. It is very unusual for Atlantic storms to form this early in the hurricane season.

[ThomWV]

14. What a nice way you have of saying things to people

Hurricane season began June 1, and storms don't give a shit where you think they should come from, they will form where the water is hot enough.

[iamthebandfanman]

18. if you dont want an answer

you shouldnt make the subject a question.

[malaise]

19. OK then

Maybe an informed answer was what I was seeking. From 1851 to 2006 - two June storms formed in the Atlantic. Ana died before she reached the ABC islands and Arlene was nowhere near land.

Peace.

add

[Xenotime]

20. Excellent point. Thank you for providing real facts not just speculation.

[Uncle Joe]

25. Well that's a fascinating graph.

Thanks for the thread, malaise.

[malaise]

26. It sure is Uncle Joe

:hi:

[Politics_Guy25]

2. It is early

Have been following this one on Storm2k. This is very omnious indeed. For those of you who aren't aware, the experts are predicting that 2010 could rival 2005 hurricane-wise. To see a CV wave in early June is frightening to say the least (one this well organized that is)-it is 6 weeks ahead of time!! Usually, June storms would be homegrown messes.

[malaise]

6. Not sure this one will stay together

with those overhead winds but this early development is ominous

[Ruby the Liberal]

7. Is there a link for Storm2k's tracking that you can share?

[Gaedel]

8. flhurricane.com

That is a really good site with links to all kinds of tropical weather sites. Trust me, you will enjoy it.

[Ruby the Liberal]

11. Cool - thanks!

[Politics_Guy25]

9. Sure-Storm2k is a message board mind you but it's pretty cool

It's storm2k.org.

Politics is banned on the site but you may see some distasteful comments from time to time. Just try to ignore those.

[Ruby the Liberal]

10. Thanks!

[Ex Lurker]

3. the season doesn't really get cranked up until August-September, but storms do form in June

although they usually originate in the GOM. It IS highly unusual for a Cape Verde storm to form this early.

[GoCubsGo]

4. It's early for the Southeast to be so hot, too.

Upper 90's to low 100's this weekend through at least Tuesday. We usually don't see such temperatures--when we see them, until late July or August.

[dixiegrrrrl]

12. It was this hoti n 2006 here ( ala).

We were coming off a few years of drought.
I remember because we had guests from Ca. and they were melting into the pavement here.
In 05 the high temps hit early in May and stayed that way till Nov, if memory serves.

[madrchsod]

13. nope...the ocean is a degree warmer and....

one of the "ninos" is changing...

stay high and dry this season...do`t want to lose ya!

[BrklynLiberal]

15. Not in the world in which we are living today.

[Are_grits_groceries]

16. I believe the weather is

so screwed up that none of the older patterns are really operable. Everything seems off kilter and extreme. That's what worries me about this hurricane season. With el Nino and all the other factors, the storms could be huge this year.

[zeemike]

17. A storm in the Gulf right now would literally be

a disaster on top of a disastar...and no one can tell what that would mean.

[Xenotime]

21. The oil better be cleaned up before that happens.

[malaise]

22. That will not happen

We are up Oil creek without a paddle

[alfredo]

23. A dreadful parade in the Atlantic

[malaise]

24. Damn

Hopefully all three will self destruct. Otherwise we're fugged real early.

[alfredo]

27. Last I checked they are say wind shear in the GOM will

prevent anything from developing. Passing over the islands and the Yucatan will weaken it. It will have to thread the needle to get into the GOM unharmed.

[Mudoria]

28. With the freakish weather we've been having

I'd say the "norm" isn't the norm anymore. With climate change a lot of things we've come to expect may not hold water any longer.

[malaise]

29. True

We should know if this will peter out sometime tomorrow

[hobbit709]

30. But the SST is about as warm as it is in August.

Not a good sign.

[GrantDem]

31. Great...

Leaving for the Caribbean next week.