Do you think BP/US/WhoEver will stop this leak by November?

[eilen]

Outside of the horrific environmental, health and commerce implications of this... a thought just occurred to me that if it isn't the elections will be very disappointing for the Democrats and 2012 won't look good either.

What kind of impetus do you think will give a 3rd Party-- like the Green Party in 2012? Just asking because life doesn't seem much different 2006 around here and actually things are a lot worse economically, devastating environmentally, war war war, and on the human rights front-- nothing new to see here.

[LeftyFingerPop]

1. No. n/t

[tekisui]

2. No.

I don't think it will be stopped before next year, at the earliest. The relief wells will not get it on the first shot, it will take a few tries. That is only if everything goes well and there aren't too many hurricane disruptions/problems. And, still the relief well is no guarantee, if there are leaks from the well casing or from the seabed.

[AsahinaKimi]

3. Not even

Superman could stop this leak..

[Tutankhamun]

20. What about the time when Superman flew around the world

in the opposite direction it was rotating. It was in one of the movies. He flew around and around over and over, reversing time on the entire planet.

If he could just reverse time, we'd be saved (although it WOULD make for an incredibly stupid plot convenience and open him up to criticism -- why doesn't he just do that all the time? Wouldn't it be a lot easier?)

[Systematic Chaos]

4. Not to offend, but are you fucking KIDDING me?

Nah, it'll stop when the pressure of the water finally comes into equilibrium with the pressure of the oil under the rock -- which is to say, a very long time from now.

:banghead:

[Statistical]

5. Yes. Relief wells are a proven method.

Now will the Gulf be cleanup up by November? Hell No.
Will even the majority of the oil be skimmed by November? Not even close.

Will they capture the well via a relief well bottom kill. 100% positive of that.
BP knew that from day 1. Everything else they have tried and will try is simply longshots and Hail Mary.

The relief well is the only proven method to stop a blow out of this magnitude.

The Mexicans used relief wells, the Iranians used relief wells, the Australians used relief wells.

[customerserviceguy]

11. Agreed

The relief wells are the best solution. Anything else is just something to show the "We've got to do something, anything!" crowd.

[dgibby]

16. That's only if the original well casing is intact.

There is growing consensus that there are multiple leaks from the seabed itself. If that's true, it will never be stopped.

Also, tropical storms/hurricanes will stop all work on drilling and containment, so even if the relief well is successful, I,like you, wouldn't expect it to be on line by Nov.(well, not THIS Nov, anyway).

[Statistical]

17. Relief well can resolve even a damaged casing.

Part of the earth is non-permeable. If it wasn't then oil would simply leak out naturally. Ohio valley was believed at one time to contain more oil than Saudi Arabia but something happened to the cap rock and the oil leaked to surface over the course of milions of years.

The relief well junction point is inside the cap rock (non-permeable) rock formation holding the oil field in place. Any cracked casing below that point is not material. Why? because there is nowhere for oil to leak to above it is solid cap rock.

Any cracked casing further up the well (near surface) in permeable rock is no longer relevant once relief well seals the well at junction point. It simply becomes empty pipe.

[Laelth]

6. Chances are that the relief wells will work.

No guarantee. They could blow too, but it's the best chance we have. I'd say there's a 70% likelihood that the gusher in the Gulf will be shut down before November.

:dem:

-Laelth

[Ganja Ninja]

7. No because BP is only drilling 2 relief wells.

Obama should be ordering them to start at least 3 more right now. It took 5 or 6 to stop the well in East Timor. So if the first 2 don't work we'll be sitting around for another 4 months while BP drills new ones.

[Statistical]

12. This is a misnomer.

Only one relief well was drilled in Australia.

The correct fact is that it took 5 ATTEMPTS not 5 wells to cap the Timor oil well.

However somehow that has morphed into drilling 5 independent wells is the answer.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. Americans will be sad that there is such a loss of oil for their SUVs

they will be concerned that there won't be enough oil for their SUVs and will vote republican.

I would hope that Americans are more intelligent and lobby for alternative fuel rather than oil. The media is so powerful that it would humiliate a third party so much that it would die on the vine unfortunately.

[Child_Of_Isis]

9. It's according to how busy god is

and how much everybody prays. Evidently it is divine intervention from here on out.

[donco6]

10. They haven't told the truth on anything yet? Why believe now? n/t

[ixion]

13. Nope. The gusher will ebb when the pressue equalizes.

And probably not before.

[OHdem10]

14. The RELIEF WELL is scheduled to be completed in August.

Surely, the thing will have stopped gushing by then.

[LaurenG]

15. Yes I do

I'm guessing late August or September.

[newfie11]

18. hell no n/t

[FLPanhandle]

19. Watch BP's stock price and credit rating

That'll tell you what the insiders know.

[SidDithers]

21. Yes...

I believe the relief wells being drilled will allow the leak to be sealed.

Sid

[TheKentuckian]

22. I hope so

but I don't actually believe it, no.