does THE POST from the Oil Drum ring true to you?

[Syrinx]

I'm talking about the post quoted by Olbermann the other night.

I'm not sure, but it's got me pretty scared.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

[TheWraith]

1. We're assuming anonymous internet speculation as credible now?

Seriously?

[tkmorris]

3. It's an opinion with as much validity as most

How accurate is it? I don't know. Neither do you I surmise. But then, why does that post from the Oil Drum carry any less weight than say, anything you have ever posted at DU?

The question raised in the OP is does it ring true to you? Given that the only things laid out in the post are 1) The portion of the well beneath the sea floor is likely deteriorating, in part due to the sheer volume and pressure of the oil spewing from it, 2) We are barely halfway into the event, assuming that it will continue AT LEAST until the relief well(s) can be completed, and 3) the damage caused by all of this is massive and getting worse, what DOESN'T sound true to you? I honestly see nothing in the slightest controversial about any of those statements, and frankly wonder what motivates you to question them.

Edited to add: It would seem that the most controversial portion of the post is the poster's conclusion that the pipe beneath the sea floor will collapse and fail before the relief wells are completed. If you believe that is incorrect would you please state your reasons for believing so? As I said, I think it is as valid an opinion as any other. Perhaps true, perhaps not, I am unworthy to judge it. Are you?

[RC]

9. Why did 'Top Kill' not work?

It should have if the well were intact down there. As top kill is a proven method of killing wells.
With all the 'short cuts' on this well, how are we to believe the cement job was done correctly? If it wasn't, this scenario could very well be true.

[TheWraith]

29. I don't want something I've posted on DU being treated as news.

Which is what KO did with that post, and which frankly I'm disappointed in him for, despite normally being a big fan of his. We don't know if this person is an expert or not, and neither does Keith. I can testify that I've written a ton of speculative shit on DU about what I thought might be the case, but based on absolutely no certain knowledge to that effect. Someone taking one of those screeds and interpreting it as an "inside look" would be doing a massive disservice to news as a whole.

We don't know if "Doug" is a qualified structural engineer who knows what he's talking about, or if he's some random guy with a laptop who thinks that too much time watching the Discovery Channel means that he knows the situation better than actual scientists on site. Nor does anyone. For that reason, assuming his speculation to be valid and true is reckless.

[Syrinx]

7. I didn't assume anything

I asked for opinions on whether it sounded like it could be true.

Seriously.

[Mojorabbit]

35. I think Sen Nelson Fl

mentioned the possibility f the well itself being compromised so I am assuming it is probably true that it is. He mentioned it a couple of weeks ago.

[dipsydoodle]

2. No.

.

[Fumesucker]

4. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better,

The rest of the piece seems to stem from that one statement, which doesn't seem to be all that controversial to me.

I wouldn't take the piece as being gospel but It's certainly a point of view that should be considered.

Sometimes the worst does happen and it's not beyond the realm of possibility in this case.

[Syrinx]

8. that's what has me so concerned

If the worst really does happen, this could have implications far beyond dirty beaches and some dead pelicans.

I'm thinking a virtual Armageddon. Interruptions in the natural food chain, and rain, far inland, poisoned, if not by the oil itself, then by the poisons called "dispersants" they are pouring into the gulf, that decimate not only agriculture, but also biology itself at the most basic level.

We all know that this is a seriously bad situation. But if "dougr" is in any way credible, then the situation may be something unimaginable by anyone but a screenwriter of a Bruce Willis blockbuster.

I'm not ashamed to admit that the Deepwater Horizon disaster has me seriously saddened and fearful. Even if it is only as bad as we are being told, it is still the worst ecological disaster in the history of Mankind. And that includes Chernobyl. And I'm worried that it may be even many times worse than that.

[justabob]

26. me too

Best case scenario is bad enough, but any number of bad things (and worse) can happen at any moment. I am particularly worried about the weather/water cycle you noted. It won't be long before a significant amount of oily Gulf water gets into the weather systems to be dropped dog knows where, contaminating both the soil and the local water tables with toxic oil and chemicals. I find myself hoping for drought this year...not really, but the oil+ scares me... a lot.

[femmedem]

5. There's a great rebuttal on dailykos here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/6/24/878834/-Fishgrease:-Booming-The-Bullsh*t-

The update is a thank you from the oildrum, which also isn't finding the comment credible.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

10. I'm glad to have read that.

It assuaged some of the fear.

The good thing about that post is that it did scare people just shitless and possibly made people ponder about how severe the consequences could be when we just don't know what the hell we are doing, but do it anyway.

[SidDithers]

21. Fantastic....

thanks for posting that link.

Sid

[Kokonoe]

6. No, the oil would not leak from the miles of rock. nt

[AndyA]

11. I read the entire post on the Oil Drum, which is quite long and took some time to digest.

It surely seems reasonable to me.

Certainly at least as reasonable as the "official" version we're being given by the media. It would seem a lot of things have gone wrong with this particular well, I would find it surprising that the below-ground work was done properly, when nothing else it seems, was.

[Urban Prairie]

12. Personally I find the drilling of just two relief wells

To be woefully insufficient, IF neither are able to plug the original leaking well. I think that there should be three more being drilled, not to reach the leak, but to the reservoir itself to pump oil and gas out of it, in an effort to possibly reduce the pressure and amount of crude oil and methane freely escaping, in case both relief wells fail.

[Statistical]

13. Australians plugged their well with a SINGLE relief well.

They simply made 5 attempts with the single well.

Attempt 1) - miss
Attempt 2) - miss
Attempt 3) - hit but glanced off casing
Attempt 4) - intersected main well but has insufficient mud/pressure
Attempt 5) - no new drilling just more mud - killed well.

Somehow this has morphed over time into a belief that they drilled 5 wells and that somehow drilling 5+ wells is a good thing. The Mexicans & Iranians also only used a single relief well. Drilling 5 wells at the same times does nothing but add a lot of complexity and a lot more ships in an area already congesting with traffic.

BP isn't drilling relief wells they hired experts. The lead on relief well team has been on 40 relief well operations and has hit target on 40 of 40 attempts.

[Urban Prairie]

15. And how much pressure was the crude oil AND any methane gas under

for any of those wells that were successfully plugged?

At what depth were those leaks plugged?

Maybe three additional wells is overkill, and one more could be drilled at sufficient distance to avoid congestion at the site of the leak, but I was under the impression that the reserve was massive, and may extend underneath the continental shelf into Alabama.

[Statistical]

18. The pressure is irrelivent to discussion of relief well.

Many people think a relief well somehow relieves pressure and thus 3, 4, 20 relief wells would relieve 3x, 4x, 20x as much pressure.

That simply isn't true.

Relief well is very simple concept
1) Drill to intersection point in non-permeable rock
2) At the moment the drill intersects the main well it has 5 miles of mud behind it.
3) If weight of mud > than hydrostatic pressure than well will stop. If it isn't then it won't.
4) Having 3, 4, 5, 20,000 relief wells doesn't change that dynamic.

So 5 mile relief well (4 mile drill depth + 1 mile to ocean floor).
1 ft radius^2 * 25,000 ft height * Pi ~= 75,000 cubic feet. Average drilling mud is about 75 pounds per cubic feet (weight can be increased by adding weighting agents).

So at the moment of intersection the relief well has roughly 6 million pounds of mud behind it. This will be enough to hold back the oil. We know it is because the main well didn't leak/explode the second they hit the pocket. It only happens when they removed drilling mud (and improperly poured/cured concrete failed.

Of course if somehow the relief well can't generate the necessary pressure (via gravity & mud column) then 20, or 100 reliefs won't be able to either and nothing will stop the flow. Physics would indicate that is an impossibility.

[Urban Prairie]

27. Well...uh...no, I did not mean to imply that drilling any more relief wells

that did not intersect the wellbore gusher would reduce the pressure accordingly, based upon the amount of extra wells drilled into the reserve.

But in the (hopefully unlikely) event that the two that they are now drilling fail to plug the leak, what other options, besides trying to blow it up, if any, would be considered next?

Seems to me that drilling more wells within 1000' feet or so the reserve for the time being, and attempting to reduce the amount of crude and methane gas within it, in the event of epic fail to plug the gusher, would be doing SOMETHING, other that just permitting it to largely flow unabated, and continue just dispersing, capturing, and burning it, or....gulp...detonating a nuke device at sufficient depth nearby to try stopping it, which is what I think would have almost certainly been attempted next if this catastrophe would have happened instead back in 2005 with a GOP majority in Congress and the Chimp as POTUS.

[northernlights]

23. that BP isn't drilling the relief well

is the best news I've read about this catastrophe.

I did read somewhere that the company drilling them was the best.

[Statistical]

24. Yeah from various oil drum dicussions it looks like the company picked only does difficult wells.

They are high paid experts only called in for various high challenge drills. They leave the lower margin, mundane stuff to other companies.

Then again remember BP wasn't drilling on the DWH either. They were simply in charge, and their demands to cut corners, and take risks is what lead to the disaster despite them not actually doing any drilling.

The only thing that worries me is this company is a contractor for BP. Would much rather the US govt be in charge of relief wells and they hired this company to act as a contractor for the taxpayers (with ultimate bill going to BP). I would hope this company doesn't succumb to any pressure from BP to cut corners. I would imagine they have seen the PR disaster that BP corner cutting caused and demand to do it "by the book" given the intense media scrutiny.

[northernlights]

31. that's why I wish the government had taken over the whole recovery

not because the government knows how to do it themselves, but because the people who actually do the work would be reporting to us, instead of reporting to BP. A lot of people don't seem to understand the difference in priorities.

BP:
1. minimize costs
2. maximize profits (or minimize losses)
3. hide the damage
4. pr
5. pay themselves bonuses

gov:
1. stop the gusher
2. limit the damage
3. clean up the mess
4. bill BP
5. collect on the bill

[JoeyT]

34. Of course the thing about contractors like this group

is that when you hire the best of the best and order them to cut corners to save you some money, they're more likely to tell you to go piss up a rope and quit than they are to actually do what you told them to do.

They've got their reputation to keep.

[HughMoran]

14. Dunno, but I've been reading this one repeatedly

If it happens, it happens, there's nothing man can do to stop this from happening other than cement the well shut with a relief well.

[AngryAmish]

16. We could nuke it.

[HughMoran]

19. lol

I hope you were joking.

[SidDithers]

17. No....

the poster, dougr, is not credible.

Sid

[slackmaster]

20. Trying to get my head around the intense pressures miles below a mile of seawater, no.

In my head I see any catastrophic failure of the well bore most likely resulting in a chaotic collapse of sediment and rock that would ultimately seal the leak, although in a messy way.

[RoyGBiv]

22. Olbermann quoted that!?

Ohdearlord, he or his research people are slipping.

The poster "dougr" is not the kind of individual I'd be quoting if I were in a position of as much prominence and respect as Olbermann.

"dougr" is also a poster known as "SHR," an administrator at a lunatic conspiracy site called "godlikeproductions." This was the same site that some years ago had unearthed "proof" that the Earth was about to be impacted by a meteor that would result in an extermination level event and that the government as covering it up. I don't know that SHR was involved in that in any way, but that's the type of stuff that shows up there.

What also shows up is the fact that "SHR" is a racist loon in his own right.

Here's a post I made on the subject the day this post showed up:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8549020&mesg_id=8550003

This is the problem I've mentioned before that's been developing at The Oil Drum. It is a credible site. It has a large number of credible people that post there. And now, unfortunately, it's being inundated by people that aren't credible but who are apparently being granted imprimatur merely because they posted there.

"Dougr" has been a member of the site since 2005. Prior to that post, he'd posted, IIRC, four times, and none of those times did he show any evidence of knowing anything about the oil business, drilling, etc.

[SidDithers]

25. Our very own mod Lithos urged caution a month ago...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8436021&mesg_id=8436137

At this time, I think the oildrum has become an open forum. A quick look at the membership in that thread showed that for the four names I checked, only one of them had been on the forum more than 2 days. The site is now filled with armchair pundits and the sites popularity as a source has now proved its undoing...

I don't think the site has become completely undone, but certainly, one should be cautioned about believing what they read there, just because they read it there.

Sid

[Syrinx]

33. thanks Roy

It eases my mind a bit to hear that dougr is likely a flake. I'm still very disturbed about the ongoing disaster in the gulf though.

[Daphne08]

28. I hope this helps...

BP's Deepwater Oil Spill - Response to DougR's Concerns

Posted June 25, 2010 - 7:30am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: deepwater horizon, oil spill

This is a guest post from Oil Drum commenter shelburn, who is a retired manager for an offshore underwater service company. Shelburn also wrote a previous guest post related to the oil spill. - Gail

----------

In this post, I would like to respond to a long comment made by DougR a few days ago, that has received a lot of publicity.

First, I will say that in one area we are in complete agreement. BP and the USCG have been less than forth coming, and in doing so have hurt both themselves and the general public as all kinds of wild rumors and technical misinformation abound. Some of this misinformation results in harm to individuals and businesses as people suffer increased stress and tourists cancel vacations.

In this information vacuum it is easy to make wrong assumptions that lead to mistaken conclusions. It can be made worse if you have some degree of technical knowledge and verbiage and use that to make a case for a scenario that doesn’t pass muster with actual engineering analysis but sounds highly authoritative to many people, some TV commentators and various politicians.

Continued at link: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6655?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:%20theoildrum%20%28The%20Oil%20Drum%29

[NYC_SKP]

30. Great link, thanks very much.

:thumbsup:

There's waaaay too much misinformation out there.

[Fumesucker]

36. The sad part is that much of the misinformation has been promulgated by the government and BP..

It would be much easier to discount worst case scenarios if those in authority did not have a long and sordid history of lying to the public.

[IDemo]

32. For DU'ers who want to keep up on the technical end of things

ProfGoose offers regular posts in the Energy/Environment forum with links to the latest updates from the Oil Drum:

Thread with a rebuttal of DougR's post (and other topics) here - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x251872