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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 07:47 PM Original message |
Chanelling TruthIsAll: An Open Letter to Nate Silver |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 07:52 PM Response to Original message |
1. Zogby doesn't even pretend to be accurate. He weights by party ID in PREVIOUS election. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 07:56 PM Response to Reply #1 |
2. I suppose the millions of discarded ballots is BS too.... |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:19 PM Response to Reply #2 |
5. "millions of discarded ballots" |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:27 PM Response to Reply #2 |
8. Sure, there are always going to be ballots that are not properly filled out and are discarded. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 02:57 AM Response to Reply #8 |
29. Greg Palast and RFK Jnr proved that discarded ballots alone decided the 2004 election. |
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Major Hogwash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 04:02 AM Response to Reply #2 |
45. That's exactly the answer he is push-polling for in this thread. That there was no fraud in 2004. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 05:41 AM Response to Reply #45 |
48. If you took the position you are currently taking on Daily Kos, you would have been BANNED. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 10:53 PM Response to Reply #48 |
51. Well that is an interesting observation for reasons which will soon become obvious.... |
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Chan790 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:00 PM Response to Original message |
3. I'm with Nate Silver. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:15 PM Response to Reply #3 |
4. No one is suggesting replacing elections with voodoo.... |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:30 PM Response to Reply #4 |
9. The pollsters got the 2008 election EXACTLY right, matched with the recorded vote you despise. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:52 PM Response to Reply #9 |
11. Some more channelling..... |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 09:08 PM Response to Reply #11 |
14. The total sample of all polls in the RCP average is FAR greater than 20 thousand. Nice try though. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 10:24 PM Response to Reply #14 |
18. You can't add polls together like that....... |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 11:36 PM Response to Reply #18 |
20. Sure you can. They just did. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 11:46 PM Response to Reply #20 |
23. It doesn't reduce the margin of error |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:56 PM Response to Reply #9 |
12. Of the 15 Polls - None of them were registered voter (RV) polls |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 09:11 PM Response to Reply #12 |
15. That is a good thing. If any were of registered voters, they should be thrown out of the average. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 10:27 PM Response to Reply #15 |
19. The overall phenomena you point to is that pollsters adjust to the circumstances.... |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 11:38 PM Response to Reply #19 |
21. What a joke. Zogby SPECIFICALLY adjusts his results based on the party ID from the LAST election. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 12:24 AM Response to Reply #21 |
24. Do you believe the recorded vote is correct in all elections ? |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 01:04 AM Response to Reply #24 |
27. What do you mean "correct"? |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 02:56 AM Response to Reply #27 |
28. Not persuasive? |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 03:03 AM Response to Reply #28 |
30. We all know what happened in 2000, and Bush did indeed win in 2004. |
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EFerrari (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 03:10 AM Response to Reply #30 |
31. Right. Bush won in Ohio. That's why Ken Blackwell turned himself into a pretzel |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 05:39 PM Response to Reply #31 |
32. Well said Elizabeth :) |
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EFerrari (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 06:37 PM Response to Reply #32 |
34. It's always good to see you at DU. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 05:56 PM Response to Reply #31 |
33. I never said Blackwell did nothing wrong, or that there wasn't voter suppression. |
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EFerrari (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 06:39 PM Response to Reply #33 |
35. Neither you nor anyone else knows who won Ohio. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 07:42 PM Response to Reply #35 |
37. Neither you nor anyone else knows who won Wyoming. n/t |
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EFerrari (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 07:56 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. Precisely. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 07:58 PM Response to Reply #33 |
39. Some reading material.... |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 10:51 PM Response to Reply #39 |
40. Correct RFK Jnr Link Re Ohio |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 12:12 AM Response to Reply #40 |
41. The problem is the assumption that the exit poll is actually correct. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 10:45 PM Response to Reply #41 |
50. Only thing is the previously perfect exit polling method, only fails in the US and only since 1998 |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jul-22-10 02:37 PM Response to Reply #50 |
59. I don't need the "reluctant Bush Responder" explanation. That assumes the Exit Poll model was |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jul-22-10 05:32 PM Response to Reply #59 |
61. The creator of the exit poll was deeply troubled by its failure - he invented RBR |
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Fri Jul-23-10 09:08 AM Response to Reply #61 |
62. rbr == a rationalization. nt |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-24-10 10:08 PM Response to Reply #61 |
64. An exit poll is somehow valid because the poll conductor couldn't think of any other explanation? |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 12:24 AM Response to Reply #21 |
25. Do you believe the recorded vote is correct in all elections ? |
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HughMoran (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:20 PM Response to Original message |
6. . |
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Major Hogwash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:24 PM Response to Original message |
7. Wow, this is unbelievable! I'd like to meet this guy. Thanks for the channelling. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 08:44 PM Response to Reply #7 |
10. Kerry did not even have close to a 7 point lead going into the final weekend. Bush was ahead by 1.5. |
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Major Hogwash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 02:53 AM Response to Reply #10 |
42. Bullshit!! That's why I didn't post here at that time. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 03:04 AM Response to Reply #42 |
43. Are you being serious? You are claiming that the PAGES WERE ALTERED??? |
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Major Hogwash (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 03:59 AM Response to Reply #43 |
44. You're not serious at all about the outcome of the 2004 election. |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 05:22 AM Response to Reply #44 |
46. You have the right to your false beliefs, but that doesn't make your beliefs any less false. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 08:45 PM Response to Reply #46 |
49. A Comprehensive state pre-election poll trend proves that Kerry was leading in the polls in 2004 |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jul-22-10 02:35 PM Response to Reply #49 |
58. Ah. Having finally backed off the idiotic premise that Kerry was leading the national polls |
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jul-22-10 05:09 PM Response to Reply #58 |
60. Monthly averages of 18 National Pre-Election polls in 2004 and Undecided Voters allocation: |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-24-10 10:13 PM Response to Reply #60 |
65. Kerry rarely led in ANY national poll after the conventions. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 09:06 PM Response to Original message |
13. Excellent reccing DU..... |
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Octafish (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 09:12 PM Response to Original message |
16. TruthIsAll is Tops! |
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Thu Jul-22-10 02:26 PM Response to Reply #16 |
57. k! nt |
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matt819 (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 10:07 PM Response to Original message |
17. Why such antipathy toward TIA? |
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BzaDem (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sun Jul-18-10 11:39 PM Response to Reply #17 |
22. Anyone can cook up a model to support a conspiracy theory. That doesn't mean it deserves respect. |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 12:27 AM Response to Reply #22 |
26. So it is a conspiracy theory with no merit? All the election results are hunky dory.... |
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Freddie Stubbs (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 05:35 AM Response to Reply #17 |
47. Perhaps for the same reason he was tombstoned from DU |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 10:54 PM Response to Reply #47 |
52. And why was he tombstoned Freddie? |
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Freddie Stubbs (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jul-21-10 10:56 AM Response to Reply #52 |
54. He appeared to be mentally unstable, unable to accept any critiques of his ideas |
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Name removed (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jul-21-10 01:15 PM Response to Reply #54 |
55. Deleted message |
Freddie Stubbs (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Wed Jul-21-10 01:46 PM Response to Reply #55 |
56. No, just a Democrat who has been posting here since 2002 |
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ConsAreLiars (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Jul-19-10 07:42 PM Response to Original message |
36. A kick for substance and a rec to counter the unreccers (nt) |
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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Sat Jul-24-10 09:55 PM Response to Reply #36 |
63. kick! nt |
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althecat (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Tue Jul-20-10 11:25 PM Response to Original message |
53. You can read/download TIA's full 2004 election analysis as a PDF here.... |
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DU AdBot (1000+ posts) | Mon Apr 29th 2024, 09:53 PM Response to Original message |
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