kos: The Dems improving Senate picture

[babylonsister]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/3/889839/-The-Dems-improving-Senate-picture

The Dems improving Senate picture
by kos
Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 08:46:02 AM PDT


It's ironic given how broken the Senate is, and how afraid its Democrats have been of using their majority, but they will likely come out far better this November than their House colleagues.

And the picture for Senate Dems is improving.

If you simply look at the national trends Democrats are in pretty bad shape right now. Barack Obama's approval numbers are hitting record lows in a lot of polling and the balance of the generic ballot surveys show Republicans in the lead.

If you look at the trends in the actual races though things are getting sunnier for the Democrats. In June and July PPP polled eight Senate match ups that we had a previous poll to compare to- in all eight the Democratic candidate improved his/her position, by an average of 4.25 points.

The chart above also shows how Dems are actually playing some serious offense this cycle -- Ohio, New Hampshire, Louisiana, North Carolina and Kentucky are all pickup opportunities. Throw in Missouri and Florida (with independent Charlie Crist), and you've got seven legitimate pickup opportunities to offset the guaranteed GOP pickups in North Dakota and Arkansas, plus tough contests in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, as well as potentially tough races in California, Washington and Wisconsin.

Throw in fading GOP challengers in Nevada and Illinois, and we've got something approaching parity heading into November. As Gov. Brian Schweitzer said at Netroots Nation, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and so far, luck is keeping Democrats in the game.

[Radical Activist]

1. Missouri is a likely pickup.

That's why Obama was there campaigning in the Senate race recently. I'm not sure if it was just an oversight to leave it off the list.

[saltpoint]

2. Recommended. A quick run-down of the list of

GOP challengers is a very despairing experience.

These numbers are looking good.