Poll--FL Senate: Rubio (R) 40% Crist (I) 33% Meek (D) 16%

[book_worm]

Well, another poor third showing by Meek:

Conducted on September 27-30, the poll of 800 likely voters shows:

· GOVERNOR: Rick Scott leading Alex Sink, 46% to 42%

· U.S. SENATE: Marco Rubio leading Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek, 40% to 33% to 16%

· ATTORNEY GENERAL: Pam Bondi leading Dan Gelber, 38% to 26%

· CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER: Jeff Atwater leading Loranne Ausley 38% to 24%

· AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER: Adam Putnam leading Scott Mattox , 36% to 28% With four weeks remaining before the November 2 General Election, the poll also gauged voters’ interest in the upcoming elections.

· REPUBLICANS: 60 percent of registered Republicans rated their interest a “10” on a “1-10” scale · DEMOCRATS: 49 percent of registered Democrats rated their interest a “10.” “The candidates have four weeks left to ensure voters hear their messages,” Johnson added. “In a campaign, four weeks is a lifetime, and I fully expect we will see candidate leads fluctuate.” The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent in 95 out of 100 cases.

***It's hard to believe that the people of Florida want to elect a guy who took the fifth on Medicare fraud over 70 times as Governor of this state!? I had such high hopes for FL governor at one time. It's still close enough that Sink could win, but it's hard to believe that Scott is ahead given his track record.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/10/chamber-poll-repubs-beating-dems-in-all-statewide-races.html#tp

[ananda]

1. That is SO bad.

And sad.

[FBaggins]

6. It's a somewhat reduced lead for Rubio... but mostly due to a shift from Meek to Crist

Which doesn't help much.

[The Backlash Cometh]

25. It really depends where they're polling.

Florida is a schizophrenic state politically.

[sharp_stick]

2. Even the Chamber of Commerce in Florida

is doing their own polling? I think I'd take this one with a grain or two of salt, especially the Scott / Sink match up. Have there been any other polls showing Scott with a lead on Sink?

[flyarm]

5. another poll a couple of days ago showed Sink falling in numbers..

sorry I don't remember what poll it was ..last Thursday or Friday.

[book_worm]

7. Yes--most recent polls have shown Scott up (and by about the same margin) see below:

Pollster Dates N/Pop Scott Sink Chiles Other Undecided Not Voting Margin
Rasmussen 9/28/10 750 LV 46 41 - 5 7 - +5R
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 786 LV 47 45 - 6 2 - +2R
Quinnipiac 9/23-28/10 1151 LV 49 43 - 1 7 - +6R
Rasmussen 9/22/10 750 LV 50 44 - 6 0 - +6R
Mason-Dixon 9/20-22/10 625 LV 40 47 - - - - +7D
Rasmussen 9/14/10 750 LV 47 48 - 4 1 - +1D
Ipsos/Reuters 9/10-12/10 486 LV 47 45 - - 8 - +2R

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/03/10-fl-gov-ge-svs_n_728244.html

[seafan]

3. For the record, this poll is from the Florida Chamber of Commerce. The GOP rah-rah squad. n/t

[book_worm]

8. yet does it really tell any different story than any other poll?

Pollster Dates N/Pop Rubio Meek Crist Other Undecided Not Voting Margin
Rasmussen 9/28/10 750 LV 41 21 30 3 5 - +11R
CNN/Time 9/24-28/10 786 LV 42 23 31 2 3 - +11R
Quinnipiac 9/23-28/10 1151 LV 46 18 33 - 3 - +13R
Rasmussen 9/22/10 750 LV 41 23 30 2 4 - +11R
Mason-Dixon 9/20-22/10 625 LV 40 23 28 - 9 - +12R


Except that Meek is performing somewhat less well, but still in third place. If anything it's good news for Crist as it shows him doing better vs. Rubio than most recent polls.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/15/10-fl-sen-ge-rvmvc_n_727351.html

[flyarm]

4. The Key in this race is the interest of Independents! And which way they go.

Another key is the Snow Birds and how they vote.

Do they know Rubio? Or Meek?

They do know the Governor.

[HockeyMom]

9. Thought snowbirds couldn't vote

that only permanent residents could. You have to declare Florida as a permanent residence to vote. Anyway, if Crist dropped out, then it would be competitive.

At least on the Gulf Coast, too many conversatives (Tea Party) for a Dem to win. I live in Naples and the Tea Party is VERY strong here. We also have a lot of rich retirees and snowbirds. The East Coast would be a different story.

[flyarm]

23. many many permanent residents are snow birds! Particularly Seniors!

they go up north in the Summer months, and many do not return till around Thanksgiving time!

I am one such Snow Bird.

I just come north later and go back down earlier than most snow birds.

Where I am on the Gulf..it is all condo's everywhere on the Gulf. It is a Ghost town until after Thanksgiving.

I vote!

I vote by mail.

So do many snow birds.

For the primary alone, our SOE sent out 250,000 ballots by mail.

[DCBob]

10. Meek is going backwards.. those are the same numbers he had pre-primary..

I have said it before many times.. Crist is our best hope to stop Rubio. That must becoming clear to most FL Democrats by now.

[The Backlash Cometh]

26. Don't ever believe anything the chamber of commerce says.

[flyarm]

34. it is not just the Chambers polls! all of the polls are showing this! eom

[DCBob]

11. I dont understand why Sink is sinking?

She had a good lead not long ago. What happened?

[KaryninMiami]

28. Terrible Ads and not nearly enough of them. She's also too nice

and not the least bit angry or fired up. Whereas Scott has a HUGE ad budget and they are fierce ads- disgusting but fierce and very strong. She comes across as a nice enough person but there's not enough fire in her. She also has not been around enough - people just don't get her or the importance of electing her. It's very sad.

[flyarm]

35. You nailed it..plus she is a bad campaigner. Great lady , just not good at campaigning! eom

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. RCP pretty much echoes these numbers

Florida Senate: RCP Average 9/20 - 9/28 -- Rubio 42.3 Crist 30.5 Meek 21.3 Rubio +11.8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_meek_vs_crist-1456.html

I haven't seen anything showing Meek at 16%, but one of the Quinnipiac surveys used in the RCP average has him at 18%


Florida Governor: RCP Average 9/20 - 9/30 -- Scott 45.5 Sink 44.0 Scott +1.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/fl/florida_governor_scott_vs_sink_vs_chiles-1607.html

The numbers on the polls in this average are all over the road.

[DCBob]

13. If this poll is accurate then Crist is within striking distance..

The Wexler endorsement helped for sure. Perhaps more coming?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. This Is Embarrassing

If Meek was to drop out and endorse Crist he would avoid the embarrassment of coming in a distant third.

Before anybody has a hissy fit I am not counseling anybody to vote for anybody. But Meek is not going to make up a 33% gap.

[DCBob]

15. Actually its a 24% gap.. but its still a huge gap.

Meek is toast.

[MattBaggins]

22. Strange; I was thinking it's clearly time for Crist to drop and endorse Meeks.

[Fla_Democrat]

30. Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner.

:smoke:

[flyarm]

36. That will not win it for Meek..many of Crist's indy's will go to Rubio. eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Don't Tell Him That. Meek Is The Worst Democratic Candidate For Senator Since Hugh Rodham

~

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Without Crist In The Race Meek (No s) Would Be Losing By Thirty To Forty Points

[RagAss]

16. Florida is some sad assed shit !

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. We Have Good Weather

I was in Ft. Lauderdale today. It was almost perfect

[RagAss]

18. I'm a Floridian too....hehehhe

[JI7]

19. Could Meek win if Crist dropped out ? dropped out and endorsed Meek ?

[DCBob]

20. I doubt it.. Crist's support is from Independents and moderates and folks who simply like Charlie.

Its hard to imagine a large chunk of them going to Meek. I suspect most will either go to Rubio or just not vote.

[flyarm]

37. Ding Ding Ding!! you win Bingo! eom

[flyarm]

24. nope! The indys will decide this. The people on the west coast hardly know Meek nor do the

dixiecrats.

The media is all Rubio - Crist. and have been from the get go with barely a mention of Meek on the West Coast and up north.

Meek did not campaign hardly until before the primary.

It was a bad tactic.

Rubio and Charlie started in full campaign mode in early spring! And got all the media attention.

[Lorien]

29. He has very little name recognition here in Central Florida

It's been an uninspired campaign from day one.

[flyarm]

32. Exactly..we in Fla have been telling people this repeatedly on DU only to be called names and bashed

Who they should have been bashing is the Dem party who allowed this! And followed this stupid asinine tactical plan!

Anyone who knows politics in Fla knows..if you don't carry the I-4 corridor..you are not going to win free bubble gum!

The I-4 corridor is watched in all national Presidential elections and all other elections.

Meek will not and can not now win the I-4 corridor. Not now..he sat quiet for too long when Rubio and Crist got all the media attention on the I-4..

It was a stupid tactic!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Crist Would Then Become The Biggest Joke In State Politics Since Claude Kirk

~

[flvegan]

21. We have FAR too many STUPID voters in this state.

Seriously...Scott? Rubio?

*shakes head*

[w4rma]

27. Good. Either Meek or Crist has to drop down in the percentages for one of them to win.

I'm glad one of them is dropping and one of them is gaining on Rubio.

[AtomicKitten]

31. Not my state, but I really, really don't want the teabagger to win. nt

[flyarm]

33. We in Fla are in terror of Rubio winning! He is Jeb's creation!

But the Indy's will determine this election!..and whoever joins them.