California Pot Vote May Save Jerry Brown and Senator Boxer's election campaigns

[Better Believe It]

WSJ: Pot is Saving Brown and Boxer
By: Jane Hamsher
October 6, 2010

Democrats Look to Cultivate Pot Vote in 2012
Party Considers Legalization Efforts in Swing States Amid Signs California Measure Is Exciting Young, Liberal Voters
By PETER WALLSTEN
October 6, 2010

Surveys by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling suggest California voters under 30 years old are more likely to vote this year than their counterparts in other states. People in that age group make up 11% of California voters likely to turn out in November—compared with 8% of the likely electorate or less in Illinois, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Michigan, all of which have competitive statewide elections. In the last midterms, in 2006, voters under 30 were 6.5% of the California electorate, according to data compiled for the non-partisan Field Poll.

Tom Jensen, polling director for PPP, said the results suggest the marijuana initiative is driving voter interest among those under 30. He said the interest may be boosting Democratic candidates, particularly Sen. Barbara Boxer (D., Calif.), who has built a lead over GOP challenger Carly Fiorina recently.

The trend was identified in recent days by Jon Walker, an analyst at the liberal blog Fire Dog Lake, which has been pushing for marijuana legalization. Mr. Walker wrote that “the evidence is strong” that Proposition 19, not California Democratic candidates, was mobilizing young voters.

Blair Butterworth, a Democratic consultant in Washington state who works with legalization advocates, estimated a pot ballot measure could drive up youth turnout by two to four percentage points—enough to influence a tight race. “It’s not like a home run. But with elections being so close these days, it’s a big difference,” he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298504575534321493828944.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

The PPP poll (PDF) found that people age 18-29 favor Democrats over Republicans on the generic ballot by a margin of 62% to 18%. It’s ironic that both Boxer and Brown will benefit from higher youth turnout for Prop 19, considering the fact that both have come out against the measure, and Diane Feinstein is demagoguing pot brownies as the co-chair of the No on 19 campaign.

But on November 3, if people on both sides of the aisle see that young voters will turn out for weed, the issue has the ability to seriously impact the 2012 political landscape. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson has been barnstorming marijuana festivals across the country with an emphatic pro-legalization message, and most think he will announce his presidential candidacy for 2012 soon.

As Chris Good says in the Atlantic, this could pose problems for Barack Obama. Nine former DEA chiefs recently demanded that he oppose Prop 19 if it passes:

"One can…envision a coalition of younger and marginalized voters being disappointed in Obama if Prop. 19 passes and he decides to sue. Call them the Shepard Fairey coalition. In 2008, Obama was cool among this crowd; if he attacks Prop. 19, a lot of that mojo will disappear. Being seen as a buzzkill never helped any politician among young and disaffected voters, much less Obama, who rode their support to victory."

http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2010/10/06/wsj-pot-is-saving-brown-and-boxer/#

[asdjrocky]

1. The republics have done it for years.

They put measures on the ballot to get the base out like say, oh I don't know, gay marriage? The funny thing is Boxer will benefit from something she has come out on the record as being against.

[flamingdem]

2. They don't need pot to win, they are both great and their opponents are asshat Repukes nt

[Better Believe It]

5. No one is suggesting they should use pot

That would not be helpful at news conferences and debates.

:)

[onehandle]

3. I had a feeling this would help Dems in California. nt

[Mike Marble]

4. It would be ironic if the pot vote helps Brown and Boxer...

...since both of them have come out against Prop 19.

Still, let's hope the get out the vote drive for Dems in California is strong. If that's the case, we can elect Brown and Boxer AND we can legalize weed.

[RZM]

7. Indeed that's the irony

Kind of rubs me the wrong way, too. If they win because of the increased turnout yet Prop 19 still fails, that would be rather sad.

[karnac]

6. I'm an alkie, not a pottie

Just speaking for myself.


Both things SLOW you down and make you lethargic. hyper intelligent get a pass. they NEED the controversy to forgive their transgressions. but what percentage is it? 1 percent? 10 percent? 20 percent? let's get real. either you are so smart that you don't have to pay the price because you are are SOOOOOOOOOOOOO intelligent, that that all the less intelligent will suck your d**k because they are SOOOOOOO grateful. even if they are SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO i**egal.

Now, Do I trouble myself with the one thing that prevents me from being a productive member of society? I.E. legality..

course not. i'm going to do what I want to do. I will find A way!

I WILL vote. not because I am right.

BUT BECAUSE IT enables ME. And enables YOU.
Because it enables what i *KNOW* I am. that I matter. that i matter in my thought, and not what the quality of my thought IS actually.

VOTE DEMOCRAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ps. VOTE FOR SHROOMS too.

They make me a better person. and YOU(other high tax bracket lewzer) should pay for it when i crash a car on doobies.

[asdjrocky]

10. I've read this twice.

I still can't figure out what in the hell you are talking about.

[karnac]

12. I think you need more pot.

THEN you would understand.

Add a little Peyote and it would be crystal clear.

Intoxicants for ALL I say. a human right!

Add a little packratting and all will be right with the world. :D


(ummm sarcasm?????)

[asdjrocky]

15. Nope.

I have plenty of cannabis. I just can't figure out what you are talking about.

[Warren DeMontague]

32. Um, maybe sarcasm written by someone with elementary school writing "Skillz"

Dude, you're all over the map. And I don't believe you're drunk, which gives you even less of an excuse.

Let me put it simply: As a philosophical baseline, what consenting adults do with their own bodies ISN'T THE GOVERNMENT'S FUCKING BUSINESS. Period. And even if it was, there is no logical basis upon which marijuana -once described by a DEA Judge as "one of the most pharmacalogically benign substances known to man"- should be illegal, certainly not to the point of the $40 Billion a year we spend "fighting" it. :eyes:

If you 'crash your car on doobies' the penalty should be exactly the same as it would be if you 'crashed your car on a bottle of jack daniels'. IE, it's the getting behind the wheel intoxicated that is the crime, not the recreational use of the legal, regulated substance.

And alcohol fucks some people up, causes a lot of damage, societal and otherwise. Far and away, by any yardstick, it is a terribly dangerous drug. Yet prohibition of that didn't work, either.

But telling people what to do, armchair moralizing, attempting to run their lives for them--- those activities have a long tradition in this country... hell, on this planet.

That's why we have the genuises of the GOP who are so enamored with "smaller government" that they can't wait to import forensic vagina inspectors from El Salvador to make sure no women are denying 14th amendment rights to fertilized eggs-- by taking oral contraceptives.

However, these efforts- like efforts to stop pot smoking- are doomed to fail.

So, either you accept reality, or you hold onto the fantasy that somehow you can run everyone else's lives. Or maybe you can't accept reality? Must be the booze.

[eShirl]

23. you alkies!

*ruffles hair*

[thereismore]

8. No, they would win anyway. nt

[Better Believe It]

9. Really? Do you have any information indicating the "pot" ballot measure will make no

difference in youth turnout and that a higher youth turnout in the election will not help Democrats or Republicans?

Links please.

[thereismore]

13. Jesus, I did not say it won't help. I said it's not going to save them because they don't need

saving. Got it?

[Better Believe It]

14. Glad to hear their election is a done deal. Would you call it a landslide?

Links please.

[thereismore]

16. No. Did I say it was? Did I say I had a link? Just drop it will you. nt

[Better Believe It]

17. Just say you don't believe the polls are accurate and don't be so defensive!

Relax!

[JI7]

30. haha,h you telling the other poster to relax

[Mike Marble]

28. Well, things are looking up for Boxer and Brown

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/geo/CA

TPM has Boxer up five points in the average of all polls, though just hovering around 50%.

TPM has Brown up just under five points in the average of all polls, though also just hovering around 50%

I know the Prop 19 GOTV campaign is getting underway, and I hope it assures Democratic victory, even though Brown and Boxer both oppose it.

[musiclawyer]

11. The DNC should quietly help put legal bud measures on ballots

in the western states in 2012. Pretty much assure turnout necessary, and saving funds for east and midwest battles. But first, get rid of Tim Kaine. Next assuming we still have a slight majority in the Senate, kill the filibuster and secret hold rules, And then pass legislation to mitigate Citizens United. If the Democrats do not do this right away in 2011 they are fools.

[JuniperLea]

18. Save? Pft... they were going to win anyway...

More spin from FDL... "blame" their win on the pot... couldn't possibly be that they are better candidates compared to their GOTP counterparts.

[Better Believe It]

19. So all Democrats "are better candidates" than Republicans and for that reason are elected.

Thanks for the info!

Well, that means we should see huge gains for Democrats in both the House and Senate this November according to your penetrating political analysis.

[JuniperLea]

20. Wrong, wrong, wrong on so many levels...

Which Republican candidate do you think is better than the Democratic candidate? Whitman? Fiorina? Do tell!

I was speaking of the California candidates... you know, the state where the pot vote is happening.

[Better Believe It]

21. Neither. But, the Democrats will always run a "better candidate" than the Republicans in

California.

So what's your point?

That the election of Brown and Boxer is guaranteed without the pot proposition on the ballot and that this proposition will have absolutely no impact on the youth turnout?

Or perhaps you don't have any political point to make at all.

[JuniperLea]

22. You sure don't follow a conversation well, do you?

I'm done with you... I've watched you play your spin-o-matic tactics with everyone long enough. If you can't follow a conversation, nuts to you.

Oh, I'm sure there will be a snappy keyboard commando comment... I really don't care.

[Better Believe It]

24. I don't understand your point .... if you have one.

[RainDog]

25. actually, no one is blaming - the youth vote cares more about legalization than the candidates

there's some historical bg for this too. In 1972, four counties gave more votes to the decriminalization proposition than they did to McGovern.

here are the poll numbers:

“Young voters in California are not just tuned in to the debate over Prop 19, but are planning to support it in big numbers. PPIC found 70 percent of likely voters under 35 (PDF) plan to vote for it, and a PPP poll found 67 percent of voters under 30 (PDF) planning to vote yes. Tom Jensen at PPP discovered California is one of the only states where they are not predicting a likely large drop-off in the youth vote this midterm.”

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/nov05election/detail?entry_id=61539

FDL is only repeating what the California Democratic party chair Burton said back in April:

California Democratic Party chair John Burton has never been one to mince words -- and last night he gave up his view about what will turn out the all-important youth vote in the 2010 election year: pot.

It's true, the Tax Cannabis 2010 crowd is here in force at the Democratic Party convention in Los Angeles this weekend with flyers promising "union jobs!" in agriculture, security, and more if the current ballot measure to tax and regulate pot is approved by the California voters in November.

But last night Burton, in a conversation with us, suggested there could be another benefit -- it could help get out those young voter for the crucial 2010 general election.

The chairman made the comments after being asked how Democrats can attract the Obama nation voters back to the polls to vote to help its top candidates in 2010. His take: "Pot."

As it turns out, as of Sept. 30th, Prop 19 has more support than any candidate.

Historically, ballot initiative campaigns lose support in the months prior to election day. But Prop. 19 is bucking this trend, as recent results from the Field Poll, Survey USA, and polltracker.com clearly show that marijuana legalization is maintaining, and in some cases gaining, voter support as we approach November 2, 2010.

Proposition 19 is endorsed by a broad coalition of divergent and powerful interest groups, including the California NAACP; the Latino Voters League; the Service Employees International Union (SEIU); the National Black Police Association; the United Food and Commercial Workers, (UFCW) Western States Council; the California Council of Churches IMPACT; Firedog Lake; the California Green Party; and the Republican Liberty Caucus. These organizations, along with millions of Californians, agree that it is time to end criminal marijuana prohibition in California.

iow, the "dirty hippie" stereotype is SERIOUSLY out of touch.

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JI7]

27. they have won many statewide elections before without this

[Mike Marble]

29. But if it drives up Democratic turnout, that's a good thing, no?

[B Calm]

31. We need to do this measure in more states. Republicans have been

doing this kind of stuff for years to get out their voters.