Liberal enthusiasm is all but irrelevant to this campaign season

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The WH has spread the theme. The news media picks up the theme.

Everyone "knows" that disaffected liberals are not going to vote this year and that it is a substantial factor in the elections.

Except it's complete crap.

The biggest drop-offs in enthusiasm (likelihood to vote) from 2008-2010 are found among young, hispanic and black voters. Hispanic voters are a particular issue being far and away the lowest "I will vote this year" group.

The chief defectors are white rural and suburban Democrats who voted for Obama in 2008 and will stay home or, worse yet, will vote for Republicans in 2010.

Obama alienating the left will have little effect at the ballot box. The left, alienated or not, will vote Dem in the greatest percentage of anyone.

Similarly, left critiques of Obama will have little effect at the ballot box. The voters we are struggling to retain and energize are mostly lower information voters, not political junkies. (They think Firedog Lake is a clothing optional resort near Reno.)

[Mefistofeles]

1. Moderates are no fun to kick around

Hippie-punching is safer.

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. Maybe there is method in the madness -

by picking on the left, saying that we won't vote, they are subtly encouraging the disaffected middle to vote Dem to prove they are NOT leftists.

Sounds like something Rahm would come up with.

[Vincardog]

3. The PTB have set the stage. WIN WIN if they keep the House and Senate they Win if they lose them it

is because of us LIBERALS didn't carry their water. They WIN again and now have an excuse to go FURTHER right.

[phantom power]

4. My understanding is the whole "Liberal enthusiasm gap" was brought up because of GOTV...

In other words, the problem is not that we aren't going to vote (we are), it's that the "liberal enthusiasts" are the ones who actually staff the GOTV efforts that bring the low-info voters to the booth.

So, the actual problem chain is:

Sucky Center Right Democrats
--> Liberal Base Enthusiasm Gap
--> Fewer staff for Dem GOTV
--> Low Dem voter turnout
--> Dem Losses in House and Senate
--> Center Right Dems conclude they need to triangulate even further right
--> GOTO BEGIN

[geek tragedy]

5. The truth is that it's Republican excitement rather than Democratic malaise

driving this. The Republicans are smart when they pander to the Teabagger crowd--the "pox on both houses" crowd doesn't usually vote.

[socialist_n_TN]

7. Well it's easy for them to pander to the Teabaggers.............

because the Teabaggers ARE the Republicans. It was just a corporate rebranding because the Republican label was so tarnished from '06 on. They're the same thing.

[AtomicKitten]

6. Speak for yourself and don't presume to speak for others. nt

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

8. "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." - Mahatma Gandh