Obama's National Security Carousel: Recurring Miscalculations

[unhappycamper]

Obama's National Security Carousel: Recurring Miscalculations
Michael Brenner
Senior Fellow, the Center for Transatlantic Relations
Posted: October 11, 2010 12:05 PM

The essential job of the National Security Advisor is to act as custodian of the policy process -- to ensure its procedural integrity. Responsible decisions depend on coherent deliberations that are intellectually honest. Honesty in a careful vetting of information, in making explicit premises and assumptions, in laying out all reasonable alternatives along with their benefit/cost/risks. To do this formidable job effectively, the NSA ideally should combine intelligence, knowledgeable understanding of foreign policy issues and also a measure of dispassion. For advancing his own views can jeopardize his main function.

The other key is a good working relationship with the president whom he serves. The president must see the need to have a custodian, and then must pick someone he trusts. Otherwise, who holds the post is of secondary importance. The Bush the Elder/Scowcroft relationship stands as one model for an effective partnership.

Perhaps the NSA's most delicate assignment is protecting the president from himself. That means two things. First, to curb impulsive action -- whether it emerges from personality, pet ideas, or a combination. This is of little concern in the Obama White House since Obama has no fixed ideas in the foreign policy realm and, in any case, is an ultra cautious person.

Second, there is the obligation to protect the President's thinking from being captured by powerful persons, cliques or dogmas. Obama's instinctive respect for all established forces has made him singularly vulnerable to capture. Indeed, on Afghanistan he fell victim to the Pentagon phalanx of Gates, Petraeus, Mullen and McChrystal who imposed their mindset on him in last year's review.

~snip~

We are learning the hard way -- once again -- that you don't mess with someone like General Kayani. Rather than his telling a fawning journalist how tough he is, Kayani acted and acted decisively. 150 fuel trucks ablaze punctuated an offer we could not refuse, i.e. return to the status quo ante or we tighten our choke-hold on your vital supply route. The supra-text, too, was unmistakeable -- and, by the way, keep in mind that we have far more at stake here than you do and we intend to shape the outcome. So long as David Petraeus is allowed to call the shots with his legend on the line, and other senior administration officials are off on their own ego trips, these costly miscalculations will recur. That is true whether it's Jones, Donilon or whoever at the NSA desk.