where are the Democrats who are flipping Republican this year?

[cap]

I don't see anybody. I have been canvassing pretty solidly for the past couple weeks and the best I see is 10% undecided or not voting and only 1 person admit to switching parties?

I assume 10% is an average figure even for Republicans. Not everyone stays the same year to year.

Also, everyone is swearing on the Bible that they will vote this year (We shall see!).

But I can't get over the difference between what I am seeing on the ground and relatively nonpartisan pollsters like Larry Sabato. Sabato is calling my district and Senate for R slightly... but where's it coming from?

I don't like to think that I am being blindsided somehow so I don't discount them totally but where are the dropouts from 2008?

[spanone]

1. do not believe the media/pollsters

[cap]

2. yeah... but sabato has been a relatively sober take

on things....

[FBaggins]

3. There aren't many of them.

The story of the election hasn't (IMO) been one of democrats flipping to republicans, it's been independents who previously voted for us now being upset at the economy, combined with existing republicans being far more energized about the election.

[cap]

5. in my state we are heavily registered D

I dont see the stay at home Democrats...People are swearing they'll vote. I don't know about independents switching .... we still have the Rs who switched to D in 06 and 08

[Statistical]

6. Thats it.

People rarely flip and if they do it is a once or twice in a lifetime event.

Some people do flip back and forth each year but personally I think they are just confused. They ARE independents they just don't know it.


Election win = good chunk of base + pull majority of independents.

This year republicans "seem" to have strength in both pieces of the puzzle. A lot of indies are disatisfied and the Rep base is charged up.

The number of true Republicans or Democrats who flip each year is a rounding error.

[Uben]

4. What? I've been flippin off repuglicans for years!

Haven't you?

[hendo]

7. It's all polling, and polling cannot be trusted ;)

However, mid term elections often see a change in the balance of power away from the president's party.
and I really hate to cite wikipedia, but here:
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/United_States_midterm_election