Keep The Senate!--FOCUS ON "THE FIVE"!!

[BlueDemKev]

Okay guys....IT IS ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE THAT THE DEMOCRATS KEEP AT LEAST THE SENATE or the Rethugs are going to cut off funding necessary to implement the new health reform law and not hold hearings on Obama's judicial appointments.

We currently have 59 seats. However, we most likely will not be able to pick up any GOP seats this year (that's understandable, given that we captured 6 GOP seats in 2006, and another 8 seats in 2008). The only two states where we have a remote chance of snatching a Republican-held seat are Kentucky (against Rand Paul) and Missouri (against Roy Blunt). However, both are long shots.

We are definitely going to lose our seats in North Dakota & Arkansas. We are probably also going to also lose our seats in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and most likely, Colorado. So be it.

This brings our total down to 54. We should be able to keep at least 46 of these seats. I think we can add in Connecticut & Delaware, bringing us to 48. Which brings us to the BIG FIVE:

CALIFORNIA (Boxer) Slightly Ahead
WASHINGTON (Murray) Dead Heat, but momentum is swinging our way
ILLINOIS (Giannoulias) Dead Heat, but momentum is swinging our way
WEST VIRGINIA (Manchin) Dead Heat, but momentum is swinging our way
NEVADA (Reid) Dead Heat, it's anybody's guess


If we can win these five races, which is VERY doable, we will be able to keep a 53-47 majority in the Senate, firmly maintaining control of this chamber and will be able to easily contain the crap that Boehner & Co. ram through the House.

Let's take a look at these 5 races:

California, Washington, & Illinois--these are very reliably Democratic states and there is no excuse for not winning all 3 of these races. The hurdle is getting out the liberal base voters. Nevada is tougher--Reid would probably be toast had the Republicans put up a candidate who wasn't as controversial as Sharron Angle. This is still a slightly uphill race for us, but we can win it. West Virginia is a stickler...a conservative, rural state where President Obama is unpopular. Obviously, the voters there want to vote "against" Obama's agenda. The Democrats put up the best possible candidate--a popular governor who has said he will not march in lockstep with the White House. However, we are facing in West Virginia what the Republicans faced in Massachusetts back in 1996 when popular GOP Gov. Bill Weld ran against John Kerry. Although most MA voters liked Weld, voting for Kerry allowed them to vote "for" Bill Clinton's agenda AND keep Weld as their governor. However, polls taken this week have shown that Gov. Joe Manchin has caught up and may have even taken the lead in this crucial race. Again, getting out the vote and making sure we have enough money in NV & WV so our candidates can continue flooding the airwaves will be crucial.

ALSO, in addition to our "Focus on the Five" above, there's HAWAII...86-year-old Daniel Inouye will be re-elected, but his age and his health give reason for concern as to whether he will be able to complete his new six-year term. The Hawaii governor's race has Neil Abercrombie now only barely ahead of his GOP opponent. We MUST win back the governor's mansion in Hawaii to ensure that the seat will remain Democratic in the event something happens to Sen. Inouye over the next few years.

If you live in ANY of these six (6) states, in addition to voting, PLEASE--if at all possible--volunteer some time in helping their Get-Out-The-Vote drive. Even phone-banking for one Saturday afternoon can really help turn out the party base. Conservative voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year than they were back in 1994 and we MUST match them at the poll sites body for body on election day. If you do not live in any of these states, please consider donating at least $5 to each of these five (5) individual Senate candidates as well as Hawaii's gubernatorial candidate, so they will have the resources necessary to compete these last two weeks (specifically with getting out the vote and swaying undecided voters).

Above all, please, PLEASE don't let your frustration over the slow economic recovery or any disappointment you may have with the Obama-Biden Administration so far cause you to make a horrible mistake by staying home this year. We did that in '94, with catastrophic results.

We MUST keep the Senate. Focus on "The Five" and we will succeed. YES, WE CAN!

:dem: :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem:

[Scuba]

1. Don't forget Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, who is in....

... a tough battle against a corporatist.

russfeingold.org

[BlueDemKev]

2. I mentioned Wisconsin....

...but we need to put most of our resources on the lowest-hanging fruit. Wisconsin, unfortunately, is up a few branches. Sad, because I lived in Wisconsin back in '92 and voted for Feingold the first time he ran. Great guy, and he's been a great senator.

[Scuba]

3. Yes, and thank you for mentioning the state... Russ is not just....

,.. any Democrat, so I sneaked in another pitch.

[BlueDemKev]

4. True, however...

...it appears that Russ Feingold's time is coming to an end. It's unfortunate that he's become a victim of the ugly mood of 2010, much like Gaylord Nelson and Birch Bayh were victims of the 1980 GOP sweep--both those men were great leaders and had been in the Senate for 18 years, also. It's just the nature of the beast.

[Scuba]

5. Defeatist attitude. We're working hard to make sure he wins.

[BlueDemKev]

12. I hope he does

I'm just saying from a national, DSCC-type perspective, we need to go after the lowest-hanging fruit if we are to save our Senate majority.

[Scuba]

18. Thanks Blue. We here in Wisconsin WILL return Russ to the Senate.

And for the record: when Russ and Michelle Obama spoke at our luncheon in Milwaukee Wednesday, the biggest outbreak of applause was easily for Russ's mentioning of health care reform.

Russ WILL win, and other Dems should take note the he is running on, not from HCR.

This issue resonates with voters. Don't fall for the lies.

[BlueDemKev]

19. Then why is he running 9-10 points behind in the polls?

What are they putting in the water up in Wisconsin? :shrug:

[Scuba]

20. He's not. At least not according to Russ, per his comments on ....

... Wednesday.

Besides, if you believe the polls, you need help. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it. Looks like it worked with you.

They want a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Hey, my poll shows Americans love Republicans. Jump on board."

Add to that the "cell phone/land line" transition going on, etc., polls are meaningless. All except one. It's November 2nd.

[BlueDemKev]

21. RCP is showing a very different story....

...realclearpolitics.com.

[MrsCorleone]

26. Isn't realclearpolitics as unreliable and RW as Rasmussen? Just curious. nt

[Scuba]

29. They're all unreliable except....

...the one by the government on election day.

[BlueDemKev]

32. Not really....

...RCP shows polls from NUMEROUS sources including CNN, WSJ, NBC, Fox, PPP(D), Quinnipiac, and many others. They take an average of those polls (called the "RCP Average) for a given period of time (usually 10 to 14 days).

[BlueDemKev]

22. Okay, okay.....

....best of luck and let's return Russ Feingold to the U.S. Senate! :applause:

[Scuba]

25. Jeepers you give up easily....

Just kidding. Welcome to DU and thanks for your support of ANY Progressive candidate.

[BlueDemKev]

33. Thanks

But actually I've been here for well over a year.

[hfojvt]

10. McGovern also had been in 18 years in 1980 and lost

but Wisconsin is not South Dakota. Wisconsin has a history of being progressive, even if the progressives were Republicans.

[BlueDemKev]

16. Except...

...Joe McCarthy. :nuke:

[MrsCorleone]

24. I tuned into the last Feingold/Johnson debate, and Johnson seemed like a teabagger loon.

Most all of his responses were corporate propaganda talking points of the lamest kind. Why is this race even close? I mean, my god, not only did Johnson make clear that the "free market" is the way to go, but he is also heavily funded by outside, anonymous donors. How is this a good thing for the people of WI?

I think it's foolish to write off Feingold so soon.

He's gaining ground and needs our support.

[Junkdrawer]

6. Well, as long as we hold 41 seats, we can still block everything....

You know, "60 votes are needed to pass anything".

[BlueDemKev]

14. Not the Budget!

The budget can pass with a simple majority. And with Republicans controlling the committee chairs and the majority leader's office, they can hold up any piece of legislation or judicial appointment for no reason whatsoever.

[ThomWV]

7. Manchin, in West Virginia, is reported to be 10 points ahead of the Republican

[BlueDemKev]

13. That's only 1 poll.....

....most polls show the race to be a tie or within the margin of error. We know every conservative in West Virginia will be at the polls on election day to vent their unfounded anger at Obama. We must get every left-of-center voter in WV to the polls as well. By the way....did Manchin get the NRA's endorsement? That could be critical.

[cilla4progress]

8. GOTV in Washington State

I'm signed up to do this in the coming weeks! Just got my mail-in ballot yesterday; treating it like gold!

[terrya]

9. I've never done phone banking. Ever. But...

I'll contact the Giannoulias campaign and see if I can volunteer next Saturday afternoon (busy this weekend). If they will accept a complete novice at this, I'll do it. Alexi Giannoulias is a good man.

I did vote for him in early voting Wednesday. :-)

[BlueDemKev]

11. Don't worry....it's actually very easy and fun to do

I did it for John Kerry, and later in 2006, for Heath Shuler in NC-11. It's easy to do and the worst thing that can happen is someone hangs up on you as soon as you identify that you're with a campaign. Don't let it bother you. Those calls remind and encourage people to go vote! You won't believe how much your vote will "multiply" just by calling some people.

[madamesilverspurs]

15. Don't write off Colorado just yet.

In the wake of Buck's 'buyer's remorse' revelations, women are dropping support in significant numbers. That, along with his record of ethics violations and law-breaking, are starting to have some effect. Belatedly, to be sure, but it IS happening.

-

[BlueDemKev]

17. Colorado & Wisconsin

These two races are not totally written off yet, but our chances of winning there are pretty slim. Colorado is a traditionally right-leaning state with a strong anti-federal gov't sentiment. Conservatives are in a majority there, and they are heavily motivated to vote this year. Don't think we'll be able to overcome it, and that's just being honest.

Time is short and resources are limited. We've got to focus our attention on the lowest-hanging fruit.

[Scuba]

23. And just for the record...

... I do not buy into the low-hanging-fruit/triage policy. Let's try to win them all, as per Howard Dean. We have a plethora of enthusiastic volunteer for Russ here, and a base big enough to win again.

Russ is revered here. His supporters will return him to office.

[PeaceNikki]

27. This

Yes, this.

Do NOT give up on Russ. He needs help now more than ever.

[Scuba]

30. We're not giving up here in the Fox Valley !!!!! ...

...we know Johnson and we know Russ. We're working hard for Russ.

[PeaceNikki]

28. Do NOT give up on Feingold.

He needs our help now more than ever.

[Scurrilous]

31. K & R

:thumbsup: