Why are the polls saying one thing and pundits another about November?

[Taverner]

If you read the polls, it looks good for Democrats. We are ahead, but most if not all are neck and neck races

If you read the news, we're headed for catastrophic losses.

Who's right?

Keep in mind many folks have won with less enthusiasm than their competitor.

[polichick]

1. Because pundits are hoping to persuade non-thinking voters to...

...go with the team they perceive to be winning.

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. agreed

[OHdem10]

3. Otherwise the Pundits might be proven wrong. They have been

predicting the Democrats to be crushed for so long.

It is difficult to change the narrative once you buy in.

[polichick]

6. Plus, their parent companies love Republican policies. nt

[spanone]

4. polls are numbers...they may be skewed but they're numbers. pundits ALL have opinions.

and they are paid by people who have an agenda and a greater opinion

[eleny]

5. Some people vote for who they think will win

They want to vote for the winner - for bragging rights.

I'm not kidding. I had an elderly guy tell me this once before Reagan was elected. He asked me who I was going to vote for. Since I was on the job I let him know that I couldn't discuss politics. And then he said he was voting for Reagan and didn't I want "to vote for the winner?".

Until then, that notion never occurred to me. But I've remembered that conversation ever since.

[old mark]

7. A lot of the media is owned or being paid by the GOP - they are liars...nt

[blm]

16. exactly...their job is to convince gullibles to use their vote for the sure 'winner'

.

[BzaDem]

8. The polls actually look HORRIBLE for Democrats. The polls look much worse than 1994.

Gallup's Congressional generic in 1994 was GOP+7, and the resulting vote was GOP+7. They gained 54 seats.

Currently, Gallup's generic Congressional has GOP up 13-18 points, depending on turnout model (with the 18 points being the more likely turnout scenario).

[Taverner]

9. I thought the Teabagger candidates scared off or split off the Moderate Republicans?

[BzaDem]

14. No, they didn't. There are few if any districts where there is a teabagger 3rd party.

And in districts they won in the primaries, the teabaggers are often AHEAD of Democrats in the competitive districts.

[Ozymanithrax]

10. Because when asking likely voters in a poll, Republicans are ahead...

Historically, the first midterm in a Presidential term sees gains by the opposite party...


And building the drama, will Democrats continue to rule unimpeded or will Republicans stop them is a good story.

I have seen no real indications that Democrats will come out ahead. So I think we will see Republican gains in the House and Senate. But to me it appears more and more that the House and Senate will remain in Democratic Hands.

[Milo_Bloom]

11. What polls are you looking at?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. The polls are worse than 1994

[Betty Karlson]

18. Is that a good thing?

Or were the pundits harsher back than?

[Taverner]

20. I don't think so - but I don't want to detract from the GOTV calls

But yes, EVERYONE GO OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!

ALL OF US!!!!!

IF we turned DU into a measurable voting block, there would be value add....

VOTE!!!!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. So 1788.

:patriot:

[babsbunny]

15. When the elections are stolen

they can say, Well, the polls were right on target."

[K8-EEE]

17. I KNOW IT'S UNBELIEVABLE.

When the GOP was obviously heading for disaster in 2006 & 2008 they were always sunny about their chances. With the Dems surging all over the place, they remain gloomy about the Dems. WHAT CORPORATE MEDIA BULLSHIT!

[Honeycombe8]

19. Everything, polls & pundits, have the Dems losing in November. What polls are YOU seeing?

The losses vary, depending on the poll or the pundit, or when it was taken, but everything shows a loss.

Losing in the mid-terms is normal. Add a horrible recession, and you've got sky-high losses. What I'm surprised at is how surprised everyone seems by it, or why people keep blaming Obama. Given the situation and the timing, losses are inevitable (if history is accurate).

But will it be a tsunami? It's too early for polls OR pundits to tell us that. I hope it's not too bad. If the Dems keep one of the houses of Congress, I think that'll be a win for Dems. All I can do is vote and not denigrate the current administration any more than others are doing, and keep my criticisms to the point and constructive, so as not to spread doom & gloom.

[Spazito]

21. Because pundits get their paychecks from corporations...

and corporations don't want the Dems to win. See, easy, peasy, lol.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

22. Please show me these polls, because everyday I'm trying to find them

I want some good news.