Been a while for me, so Question: Are the polls right?

[Up2Late]

How's it going here?

It's been a while since my last visit to DU, so I have one question:

Are the current polls right? (that the ReThuglicans are going to make big gains in Congress in November)

Or have the ReThuglicans just convinced the stupid Cable "news" idiots to repeat their lies through constant repetition?:shrug:

[bluestateguy]

1. No, they are pimped by people pushing an agenda

And I have added many DUers to my ignore list because of their propensity to rush to the computer and peddle the latest shiny new poll to come out.

[Up2Late]

2. Me too, I think the current polls are crap...

...but they are beginning to worry me.

[BlueCheese]

3. I think they are in good faith...

... meaning the polling firms believe them to be accurate. In other words, I don't think there's any conspiracy or intentional misdirection going on.

Of course there may be biases (in a statistical sense) based on polling methodology, likely voter screens, etc.

[AmericanMan1958]

4. We need to vote and

make those phone calls,,,,
then the polls will be wrong...
Denial, alone will not change them..
But we are looking better then what is be said by the MSM

[LatteLibertine]

5. Polls are often used to influence public opinion rather than report it

[Up2Late]

6. I agree, but what do you think...

... of the current batch of polls that keep getting reported, are they crap or should we worry about them?

[BzaDem]

7. They are likely correct. The same pollsters have been very accurate in the past in their predictions

It has nothing to do with the cable news idiots. It has everything to do with reputable pollsters who have been more or less right in the past for decades.

[beyondthecastlewalls]

8. Hello from Australia

Hello everyone I'm new..and I'm from Australia.. I'm very concerned about the polls and the horrifying thought that Republicans will win office again. I'm a huge supporter of Obama. As you may know, in Australia we have recently had an election and by a very small margin my great Australian Labor Party scraped back in with our first female PM elected Yeee haa!;) Go the girls! But seriously..our political scene is so like yours here now..our Republican Party are called The Liberal Party, yeah crazy..and their leader is a guy called Tony Abbott..he is the love child of that nasty little man John Howard, your former President Bush's buddy. Very scary man..more far right than Howard..and with the help of media mogul Rupert Murdoch and his rag press and some incredible grotesque lies plastered on the front page daily, they nearly managed to sweep into power..it was way too close for comfort..I nearly had a fit during the campaign..the lies were atrocious..I was threatening to leave the country if this creepy neo-con got into power. The saddest thing of all was that so many people believed his lies..I was devastated and so ashamed. I'm sure some will relate to this feeling..I can't imagine what it was like to have Sarah Palin in such a high position breathing down your necks..scary. Anyway..we won in the end..only just and thanks to the Green Party and 2 independents, long story.. But what I have noticed there in America is this very loud media mouth piece called Alex Jones? Has anyone heard of him? He's real crazy..a conspiracy nut..he has Rand and Ron Paul on his show a lot..very creepy people. Now..I go to a site called Bagism..a John Lennon Peace board..it used to be great for years..but the moderator left and now for the last few years a gang of angry nasty far right republicans and this strange woman who seems to be spreading his word have turned the place into a hell hole..they are like locusts..they spread their fear and hatred..they tell shocking lies and abuse anyone who supports President Obama. It's destroyed a great site..and this crazy dude Alex Jones seems to be behind it all. Has anyone here heard of how these types of people do this sort of thing? They also support those crazy tea pot people..really nasty abusive people..What is happening in America? That's my question..people believe anything they read in the news papers..and news papers all seem to be owned by right wing moguls like Murdoch!Fox News for instance..that channel is horrific..so racist and such lies. Can America fight back..is there hope for the future and Obama. I'm so worried..Who is this Alex Jones nutter? Does he have any power at all?

[Swamp Rat]

9. Welcome to DU

:hi:

Alex Jones is a laughable nutjob, most do not take him seriously, and he has absolutely no power whatsoever.

[Up2Late]

15. Welcome btcw, yes AJ is very well known here...

...and you're right, he is a very scary loud-mouth, but mostly unknown outside of Texas. I'm not sure what the solution is either, but you nailed the problem, Rupert Murdoch and his right-wing propaganda channel, Fox "news."

[B Calm]

20. beyondthecastlewalls I hope you keep posting. Very insightful view

from Australia. . .

[onenote]

10. for the most part, they are probably close to the current state of things

will Democrats suffer big losses? Yes. How big? Still unclear. The repubs momentum seems to have slowed and the outcome of a number of races now hangs in the balance, as the most current polls suggest.

I know its not a popular thing to say, but the notion that the polls are all crap is itself crap. The Democratic staffers and campaign advisors that I've spoken to are not optimistic and that's based on their campaigns' own internal polling, not just the publicly reported polls that many here are quick to discount (at least when they report bad news).

Again, its not over until its over, but I don't think anyone would doubt that the Democrats are going to lose at least six Senate seats, or more than 15 percent of the seats up for election. Losing just ten percent of the House seats would mean a loss of more than 40. I still hold out hope we can cut the House losses to less than that, but people here need to face up to the situation and not pretend it doesn't exist.

[Scuba]

11. The one on November 2nd will be right. All the others are BS.

[Mudoria]

12. The only poll that matters is Nov 2

Till then I don't pay attention to polls.

[pintobean]

13. Follow the money

It's being pulled from races that should be competitive and moved to protect, what should be, safe seats. The targets keep moving in the wrong direction.

[RC]

14. When coupled with electronic touch screen voting machines,

then yes, they will be accurate... when favoring republicans.

I saw a TV ad here in North Dakota yesterday, The Land of Paper Ballots, pushing how great Electronic Touch Screen Voting Machines are. Every person in the ad looked to be over 65. All were in praise of them. That scares me and it should scare you also.

[Up2Late]

18. I doesn't just scare me, it is a reality for me as a Georgia resident...

...I lost my right to have my vote COUNTED and audited, way back in 2002 when Georgia was the first State to switch entirely to the Diebold "Accuvote TS" machines, which offer no paper trail and absolutely no way to actually audit an election, which is required by State Law!

But guess what, the Republicans who got "elected" thanks to these machines have not show any interest in investigating weather these machines can be easily hacked (yes, they can) and have shown no interest in replacing them with machines that could be audited, go figure.:argh:

So since 2002, Democrats lost the Governorship and the House (also in 2002 I think) and then the Senate in 2004, funny how that happened, huh? Both the loss of the House and Senate where the first time in over 100 years. I still go and vote, but I no longer assume that my vote is actually counted anymore, it really sucks.:puke:

So good luck fighting those, because getting rid of touch screen machines is very difficult once they are in place.:pals:

[TexasObserver]

16. Pollsters are contractors who work for big business all the time.

When they're not working elections, they're helping XYZ Corporation International figure out who they can sell their shitty products to.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Yes with a big caveat

They're correct insofar as fhe groups polled are concerned. They are missing swaths though, for example younger cell phone uses. This will lead to a Dewey defeats Truman moment IMHO.

[B Calm]

19. Well lets prove their polls wrong and vote!