Joe Conason: NPR poll: Republican midterm tide has crested

[babylonsister]

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/2010_elections/index.html?story=/opinion/conason/2010/10/16/nprpoll

NPR poll: Republican midterm tide has crested
A new national survey of battleground districts strongly suggests that the Democrats aren't quite dead just yet
By Joe Conason

snip//

First, in ten “battleground” House districts currently held by Republicans, the latest numbers suggest that the GOP will “lose a fair number” of those seats because their lead has been cut in half since June.

Second, in 58 House districts polled last June and this month, Democrats are gaining ground, with the Republican lead cut by more than half from eight points to three. Those advances are not enough to save the seats for the Democrats but suggest that the trend is now moving in their direction. If it keeps going that way, they may save some of those seats.

Third, independent voters have stopped moving toward the Republicans and reversed direction. Back in June, the Republicans held a 21-point lead among independents, which has shrunk since then to 13 points – still sizeable but not insurmountable if the numbers keep moving.

Finally, the NPR survey shows the Democrats winning the “message debate” in recent weeks, a development that the pollsters call “amazing” – and it is, considering how poorly the Democrats have fashioned their messaging in this election. In the June poll, Democrats “lost every message contest” by 12 points; now, the Democratic message is prevailing. If this is a “wave election” that will produce a Republican tsumami, voters ought to have tuned out the losing party by now.

As Democratic activist and analyst Simon Rosenberg noted today, a Democratic resurgence meme surfaced and then disappeared within a matter of days. But the NPR poll ratifies a growing strain of analysis suggesting that the Republican tide has crested -- and that voter sentiment has begun to reverse direction.

[jerryster]

1. But this on msnbc.com this morning...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39707725/ns/politics-decision_2010/

[jaxx]

3. That's an AP article.

It's full of rightwing talking points. This is the kind of crap the AP is putting out for the election.

[jerryster]

7. Good morning

Thanks for responding. I wish I could just dismiss it. Unfortunately, fivethirtyeight.com has the repubs taking the house as well. The most recent prediction from there is the house going to the repubs with 227 seats. Not a huge margin, but enough. Now I certainly hope that there will be enough of a last minute surge to prevent it, but it just doesn't look good right now.

The Senate will stay in democratic hands. Unfortunately there, however, all the repubs will have to do is threaten to filibuster and the dems will back down. With only 52 dem senators they won't be able to muster the votes to break it. We are in for 2 years of total gridlock. Not going to be pretty

[jaxx]

8. We've had nearly 2 years of total gridlock and still got things done.

It's easy to give up, harder to try. We won't know the outcome of the election until it's over.

[jerryster]

10. I do agree with that

That's why if I have the day off on Nov 3rd I will stay up late to watch the returns.

[Cirque du So-What]

4. Don't let that corporate media propaganda get you down!

It's time to stop shitting our collective pants & to double-down on energizing voters to get out and vote on election day.

[peekaloo]

6. made the front page of my local cat box liner today

their mindfucks are tiresome.

[KharmaTrain]

2. The Real Americans Started To Wake-Up

Nothing will make me happier than to see Chuckles Toad and Woflie and all the right wing talking heads stammering to explain where the tsunami went. I'd love to see Boner cry cause he'd bought all these new drapes for the Speaker's office and Speaker Pelosi didn't like the color scheme (orange, of course). I've been very cynical due to the canvassing I was doing combined with the non-stop barrage this administration and Democrats in general have gotten in the corporate media, but maybe, just maybe the GOTB peaked too soon and voters are taking a closer look and starting to call the rushpublicans on their bullshit.

Add to that all the money being spent by the rushpublicans to buy majorities and the verbose rhetoric of the teabaggers and we may just be seeing a "tsunami"...but in the other direction.

Perchance to dream...

[Scuba]

5. There's only one poll that matters. Please help get out the vote.

[placton]

9. and here come the flying pigs!

and the unicorns and rainbows.

Face it sis, the current Dem leaders have blown it in every way imaginable.