Automation Insurance: Robots Are Replacing Middle Class Jobs

[AngryAmish]

"The middle class is disappearing and the problem is deeper than politics. How will we understand work in the coming age of robotics?
Last April, the MIT economist David Autor published a report that looked at the shifting employment landscape in America. He came to this scary conclusion: Our workforce is splitting in two. The number of high-skill, high-income jobs (think lawyers or research scientists or managers) is growing. So is the number of low-skill, low-income jobs (think food preparation or security guards). Those jobs in the middle? They’re disappearing. Autor calls it “the polarization of job opportunities.”

These days, all of us, from President Obama on down, are thinking about jobs. The unemployment rate is hovering around 10 percent, we’ve watched the ground disappear from under Detroit and Wall Street, and there’s a pervading sense that other industries might be next."

Read the whole thing.

This has been my hobby horse for a few years: there are fewer and fewer jobs that can't be done faster and better by computers and robots. Cashiers at the grocery store. Bank clerk. Insurance adjuster. Pilot.

People have to figure out what to do with their lives. Doing a job that a robot can do will not work.

My advice: unless you are real smart become a plumber or electrician. Learn to fix these things before you are redundant.

[bbgrunt]

1. and importantly, what is going to happen to all

those "useless eaters" once they are no longer needed for production?

[Edweird]

2. There's nothing wrong with being a real smart plumber or electrician.

[shanti]

4. my oldest son

has a BA in history. he was going to teach, but changed his mind and is now in plumbing school.

[Kat45]

3. I remember when this was touted as a good thing coming in the future,

because it would free us up from the drudgery and give us more time to pursue things that interest us, spend more time with our families, etc. But never mentioned was how we would all earn a living to support ourselves so we could pursue other things. That future is here, and that issue has not been solved. We are now losing our jobs and unable to support ourselves on a very basic level, never mind being comfortable enough to pursue our preferred activities.

[SoCalDem]

9. Yep.. every new thing, comes with a self-destruct button built in

all that free time we were promised...well we got it..UNPAID free time..

Did anyone ever really believe that "someone" would send/give us checks for labor saved?

[The2ndWheel]

5. Not just competing against each other

We're competing against technology as well. Technological advancement has become the goal. It's not about making it easier for someone to hit a nail. It's about taking the need for someone to hit a nail out of the equation.

You have to conform to it. If some advance takes your job away, sorry about your luck. You have to go back to school, learn a new skill, etc. If some advance makes those new skills obsolete, sorry about your luck. Where are you going to go? What are you going to do? Nothing, but go back to school again. It's not like you can pick up and move somewhere, a place where you're needed. Whatever job it is can probably be done by a lot of people, anywhere on the planet. Or, of course, automated.

[billlll]

6. "share the work" plus "income floor"

Corporate econ has most starve after full automation.

Oversupply of plumbers someday.

Progressives say STW... Two do one job at full pay for Co op or gov WPA (as WPA in 30's).

Also... Some of Euro has income floor, but needs to be much higher.

Article not even mention that Private Sector is going to India. Again, only progressive econ has a solution. Tariffs.

R Reich, 2 Nobelists at
Jobs For All-

www.njfac.org

[arbusto_baboso]

7. Maybe THIS is what we need.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYTJuP34WYc

[SoCalDem]

8. Um.. when I hire an electrician or plumber, I WANT a smart one, thank-you-very-much

many smart people choose to work with their hands and use their brains for the other parts of their businesses:)

[Spike89]

10. Nails it and black-box manufacturing is coming...

That is going to be as disruptive as any technology ever. Basically, black box manufacturing is a concept where much smaller (possibly portable), inexpensive and efficient "factories" can produce a variety of goods basically by tossing in raw ingredients and adjusting the programing. Although we're obviously a ways away from the Star Trek replicator, the concept is getting closer and closer to reality.
Ironically, black box manufacturing is extremely democratic and can seriously devalue capital. One of the last big factory pushes will be making the first "multi-purpose" home factories. Before long, you'll be able to download a software program and buy the raw materials needed to have a borrowed (or rented) factory make a copy of itself. In a real sense, the capitalists will be selling the very rope that will hang themselves.
Obviously, this scenario doesn't mean you can make anything or that nothing will be in short supply. Housing (and especially the land it sits on) will remain a valuable economic prize. Raw material extraction and distribution, at least until the sci-fi dream of atomic-level nano technology arrives, will be much more important than it is now.
How this inevitable (and nearer-term than many imagine) future will affect society is a huge question. It is clear that when "average" people can control their own means of production, capital will become seriously devalued. However, so will labor.

[SoCalDem]

11. The village model worked well for most of the time humans have been here

Not everyone is able to do everything, so cooperative living, with chores divided, according to skills, seems to be the best way.

[Spike89]

13. I agree and hope we get there pretty quickly

I don't think it's going to be a smooth transition by any means, but eventually the village concept with a few modifications will probably prevail. I do think resource allocation will be the squeeky wheel that keeps this from being a utopian future. Raw materials will always be hot commodities, as will basic food stuffs, water, land and energy sources. Because these things will still be needed and aren't dispersed equitably, there will be a need for commerce and trade. The rare items will still be root causes for war and still account for disparities in wealth. I would hope that at the least, the bottom rises--it could be possible that the poorest people in a few generations will still be better off than the average today.

[Greyhound]

12. Good short-term advice.

In the longer term, we will have to reject our concept of "working for a living" to accommodate the inevitable obsolescence that smarter machines is producing.

Socialism is the only alternative to becoming a nation of beggars.

[Spike89]

14. I think the balance will shift toward socialism

However, I don't think "pure" socialism will arise. Rather, I hope to see a much higher base level of living with a meritocracy biased toward intellectual and artistic talents.