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Simply because, the Tea Party are not reliable voters for the Republicans at large. They may vote for the crazy Tea Bagger on the ticket but they will not be as quick to vote for establishment Republicans, especially those that helped to run up the debt.
If the Democrats have a turn-out that is slightly higher than usual for mid-term elections, this could be one of those "Dewey Defeats Truman" moments? I do not believe this election cycle is as predictable as some might think?
There could be some Democratic victories that are unexpected and there could be some Republican defeats that we don't expect, such as the "crazy lady" Michele Bachman and the "diaper-man" David Vitter. Also, there could be a couple of others in this environment.
The Democrats could very well keep the House and Senate. Most voters have not made up their minds yet. They will make their decisions in the next few days. They may not be as crazy about the Republicans as we or Mitch McConnell and John Boehner might think? This could be a surprising and historic election. We simply do not know. I keep having this vision of Harry Truman smiling and holding up the newspaper...
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