Do we have an in-house expert on voter identification and polling?
My question pertains to a stat I just heard from Tweety and his interpretation of it.
He said independents favor Republicans over Dems in generic preference 44% to 30% with the comment "that is nasty".
What I'm wondering is this:
We know that towards the end of the Bush era was a significant drop in those who identify themselves as Republican. Those voters went somewhere and since they were running from R instead of to D it is reasonable to conclude they ended up as I. It also seems reasonable to conclude that they are largely still inclined to support the R as a "generic" choice.
Does anyone know the firm numbers behind the shift in voter identification and how that might be skewing the polling?
What might be the degree the true Independent vote (as opposed to the set with disaffected Rs) is significantly different than the split quoted above?
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