255 to 178

[kentuck]

The present number of Democrats and Republicans in the House with two vacancies.

That means the Repubs have to win 39 races to take the House. That seems like a lot but when there are 435 races going on at one time, then that doesn't seem like a large number to gain or lose?

If the Democrats were to lose 50 seats, they would still have 27 more seats than the present Republican Party. The Repubs would have a small working majority of ten votes.

If the Democrats were to lose 40 seats but gained five, then they would still be in the majority. Anyone can play with the numbers but we should not give the House to the Republicans until they win it.

[rurallib]

1. sadly of that 255 there are only @ 215 that can be counted on.

[maxrandb]

4. Right

It would be much better to have John Boehner as Speaker and Repubs as Chairs of all the Committees.

Seriously, the "oh well, we didn't get 100% of what we wanted, so let's put the Repukes back in charge" crowd have me ready to move to Europe!

[rurallib]

6. Um - I was just commenting. I am not 'let the pukes back in charge'

person.
congratulations on being the second on my ignore list. I am a very tolerant person.
give yourself a cheney and learn how to discuss things.

[maxrandb]

8. My, my...such outrage

I was simply stating an opinion, not accusing you of anything, so please...

When folks say we had 255 seats and only 215 reliable, it gives the impression that unless we act as repukes, and march in "lock-step", it's better to be in the minority.

Unfortunately, what's going to happen...PRECISELY BECAUSE OF THAT ATTITUDE...is that the Repukes win, and when they do, it's going to be portrayed as the "country taking a swing to the right". Well, this time, that "swing to the right" will include all these tea-bagging militia "wannabees" that we will have to listen to "screeeech" about how they "took back their country".

What is going to happen to those 215 "reliable" votes is that they are going to get the message, and that message is, "compromisde with the right".

So please, be happy with yourself if that's the message you want to send to those 215 "reliable" votes.

You know, that's the kind of crap that can ruin a country. Congratulations!

[lapislzi]

7. We need to work like every seat is in play

Unless the Republican candidate is DOA...we can assume nothing. In this campaign season, we have seen drooling idiots with the IQ of pond scum win primaries for US Senate seats. Every Democrat is fighting for his or her political life, and that of their constituents.

As far as I'm concerned, there are ZERO seats that can be counted upon.

[maxrandb]

10. Exactly

Please see my post above.

Unfortunately, those "215 reliable" votes are going to be pressured to move to the right, or to compromise with the Repukes.

That will just work out great, won't it? :sarcasm:

[gratuitous]

2. Not to mention . . .

I believe this advantage in the House is bigger than any enjoyed by the Republicans during their majority days from 1995 to 2007. It's a mystery to me why that little tidbit of information isn't more well known. Mostly what I hear is that the Democrats are in disarray, whatever just happened is good news for Republicans, and the Republican majorities were hueueueueuege! instead of razor thin and didn't represent a mandate for anything.

[Cosmocat]

12. it truly is mindnumbing ...

the "liberal press" handed the Rs the house in this election pretty much the day after the last election, when the Ds, who had stronger tides in their favor were cruising to cut a MUCH smaller margin in 2006, it was all how hard it would be, all the time, when it wasn't them screaming for Nancy Pelosi to promise to not investigate Bush if they did get the majority ...

I would feel better if even ONE of the "pollsters" were not calling it so hard to the Rs, but either I am just blocking it out, or I think the odds are A LOT longer for the Rs to get the house than the prevailing "wisdom."

[soleft]

3. All I hear about are the RW nutjobs running for Senate who will not win

Who are this Republicans poised to beat the dems - and who are the dems.

I know Grayson's in trouble.

Hoping, my own congressman, Frank Pallone, will pull it out.

[Dawson Leery]

9. Pallone is in trouble?

:wtf:

[soleft]

15. In my town all I see are Little signs

I want to make stickers that say "Brain" and stick them on each one.

[kentuck]

5. On the average...

About 95% of all of Congress win re-election. That would mean Democrats could expect to lose about 22 seats if no Republicans lost at all.

It was reported that Democrats won 49 seats in districts which John McCain carried. The Repubs expect to win all of those.

[Dawson Leery]

11. A few of those 49 seats where McCain won have

the Democrat leading though.

[unhappycamper]

13. And we need only 216 votes in the House to end the occupations.

:(

[KharmaTrain]

14. Most Of The Action Are In "Purple" Areas

We're battling here to hold onto two seats that were held for years by rushpublicans. It's tough sledding. It took the absolute corruption of the GOTB Congress in '06 and fatigue with boooosh and disgust with McCain/Palin in '08 to swing those districts. Sadly the Democrats in those areas still haven't established themselves and the dissatisfaction of the "independents" and "moderate rushpublicans" who did vote for the Democrat in recent years isn't there this year. Outisde money has also made a difference as many of these Democrats have been targetted and outspent 3 or 4 to 1. There are enough of these districts in play that it could swing the balance of power...sad to say.

The ultimate problem is that the Democrats won many of those seats despite, not because of who they are. Important issues weren't properly presented and many Democrats ran on the "I'm not a rushpublican"...that isn't going to cut it this year. The right wing spin machine has framed this election and Democrats have had few answers...appearing weak and helping amplify the memes.

Honestly, I'm not about to predict numbers as the polling this year has been so inconsistant and not very thorough in many districts. But I'm also a realist and been down this road too many time to ignore the fact Democrats will lose seats this election and that the combntation of big spending to promote lies along with a party with poor messaging could make the ugly, despicable thought of Boner as Speaker a distinct possibility.

Unfortunately, America is now stuck on stupid.