Holy Crap. Nate Silver has Angle @ 76% chance of winning in NV

[Emit]

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate/nevada

Meanwhile, local rightwing radio here in NV and fox news are claiming SEIU members are manipulating the voting machines: "...Reid's name was already checked when they went to cast their ballots for his opponent, Republican Sharron Angle. Fox5Vegas.com reported that several voters in the Clark County jurisdiction experienced the same problem. ..."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/27/watchdog-warns-seiu-contract-nevada-voting-machines-poses-fraud-concern/

[madmax]

1. Heard all that craziness that Angle was spouting

about Reid trying to steal the election. I CAN NOT believe this woman is beating Harry Reid. I'm not from Nevada so I'm not familiar with their politics or how Reid's votes affected his constituants. But, this woman... it so off the wall! I can't even think of someone so insane as to compare her to.

[Turborama]

27. Faux news are all over this "voter fraud" thing

Unsurprisingly.

[Dawson Leery]

2. unrec

[Donnachaidh]

3. unrec for what?

:crazy:

[budkin]

4. Angle is pulling away... it makes me want to slam my head into a brick wall

[Donnachaidh]

5. Nate Silver has started to believe his own publicity

he needs to back off the crack pipe and calm down.

[KansasVoter]

7. Come election day if he is right I will look for your apology post!

[BlueCheese]

15. The nice thing about predicting with percentages...

... is that you can never be proven wrong, at least not on any single guess.

[Donnachaidh]

22. uhh yeah

that'll happen :rofl:

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

36. What'll happen?

Angle winning or your mea culpa?

The stupidity is strong out there, and I see no trend that looks good for Harry.

[depakid]

10. The model is what it is

I don't know why this surprises anyone.

Reid's unfavorables have been over 50% for more than a year, with approval ratings in the low 30's- and Nevada's economy is one of the worst in the nation.

Politicians with those sorts of numbers don't generally win re-election, and if Lowdon hadn't become chicken lady, we'd have long since written him off along with Blanche.

[customerserviceguy]

12. Harry's been a lousy candidate

He's been uninspiring, and he finally found someone who was more than a token challenger in a wave election year. It's no wonder he's struggling.

[DJ13]

6. A reporter from Las Vegas was on the Ed Show today

He said the polls showing Angle winning were using the wrong metrics, assigning too much % of likely voters to the GOP and Independents, skewing the results.

Left unsaid (but implied) by him was it amounts to a voter suppression tactic to try and keep Democrats at home.

[Ikonoklast]

13. And VASTLY underestimates the Hispanic vote.

And they are none to happy with the racist "be afraid of brown people" ads Angle is running.

[tnlefty]

14. "it amounts to a voter suppression tactic to try and keep

Democrats at home"...I've never understood this. I vote in every election, and by every I mean it..local elections, etc., even if I know that my preferred candidate might/will/is destined to lose. Perhaps I'm an oddity in relation to this whole voter suppression thingy that I hear and read so much about.

Although, from working many elections I know that there are far too many voters who don't vote, but polling doesn't seem to be the reason.

edit: to add are in the last sentence

[DJ13]

17. Its not the polls that are suppression

Its the headlines those manipulated polls result in that can be used to suppress votes.

The non stop barrage of "give it up, your choice cant win" message by complicit news outlets can cause many marginal voters to not bother voting.

[tnlefty]

34. Whatever. If people are so simple minded as to allow polls, and

headlines based on polls to determine whether they show up to vote or not...well, perhaps they should stay home. I've turned out to vote for candidates that I knew didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but I voted.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

37. It should motivate them

The assholes are about to take over......GOTV!!!!!

[enlightenment]

19. That is John Ralston, who is one of the best political

reporters around - and he knows Nevada inside-out.

One reason why things look so squirrely in polls is because Nevada is oddly populated (physically) - almost 70% of the population lives in Clark County (Las Vegas and environs) - the rest of the folks are scattered throughout the rest of the state.

If you look at a blue/red map of Nevada, you assume it is predominately conservative by population, because most of the state is colored red. That's not really the case, though - because that little tip of blue down in the south is where most of the people live.

There is a lot of nonsense going on in this state, but I honestly do not believe that Angle is going to win this. Harry pisses me off almost on a daily basis, but I'd rather have a spineless do-nothing conservaDem than a complete nutbag.

[county worker]

8. I think this is the election where Nate becomes a has been.

I'm not buying it.

This is the disclaimer to a new poll by New York Times/CBS News.





The poll does not measure the strength of individual candidates in specific districts, where indeterminate factors like voter turnout and even weather can affect Election Day results.

[elleng]

9. As you can see, 538 can be spun in several ways.

I could also say, 'Reid and Angle are only separated by 3 points.'

[Arkana]

11. Eh. Did you read Jon Ralston's article about why the latest CNN poll is bunk?

Nate's problem is that he uses aggregate data from other polling outfits...ALL of them. And most of them suck dog balls. Garbage in, garbage out.

[Ramulux]

16. Absolute Bullshit

If anyone needed any more evidence that Nate Silver's projections are full of crap, simply look at this. Reid has lead in most private polling consistently, Angle gets a lead from Rasmussen every once in a while. This shit does not add up. The majority of the polls show Reid in the lead, how in the hell does that mean that Angle has a 76% chance of wining?

[Old and In the Way]

18. Seriously, how is this even a contest?

Would the people of Nevada give up their thoughtful and pragmatic Senator who happens to also be the Senate Majority leader? For a barking loon that thinks her job is to do nothing there? This one is the one to watch...if Reid loses, the political idiocy will definitely be ascendant in Nevada.

OTOH, if we still retain the majority without Harry, maybe we get a new leader that will use the rules to force votes on legislation in the next Congress. Harry sure didn't seem to want to confront the filibustering minority.

[SweetieD]

23. Not sure if this means anything but

my mom and I were having a conversation tonight about education. She said she heard somewhere that only 14% of the Nevada population have a bachelors degree. I went to an event this week where someone mentioned that Las Vegas has a 60% high school drop out rate.

If you look at politics in states with low education stats like that it doesn't surprise me. I've lived in Nevada for about 5 years. There are liberal enclaves in LV but outside of that the mentality of a lot of people reminds me of folks back home in Indiana or Kentucky. The republican led state governor and legislature has ruined this state over the past decade yet they still get elected year after year. The state legislature I believe only meets for a period once every two years so it is hard to get things done. There will likely be another republican governor elected this cycle, Brian Sandoval, who will no doubt continue in the downward spiral of the state.

Harry Reid however gets blamed for everything wrong in the state. The mentality is anyone but Reid. Yes I think people would vote for a head of lettuce as long as they were opposing Reid.

[Change has come]

38. Greetings from Carson City.

You are right that we have a repuke Governor. The Democrats gained control of the state Senate in 2008. (for the first time since 1993). Democrats have a strong majority in the Assembly (28-14). The Legislature does meet every other year. During special session this past spring, Democrats saved our bacon from the idiotic cuts the guv tried to ram through. He wanted to cut funding to both universities by 50%! Democrats also saved drastic cuts to teaches and state employee pay. They also passes a strong domestic partnership law. The guv vetoed the bill but Republicans joined us in a historic over-ride!

Education spending in the state sucks. Aren't we dead last in funding per student? According to census data from 2006-2008, "84 percent of people 25 years and over had at least graduated from high school and 21 percent had a bachelor's degree or higher." http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/NPTable?_bm=y&-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_NP01&-geo_id=04000US32&-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&-_lang=en

This seems like a really strange year for Reid's boy Rory to run for Governor.

[Greyhound]

25. You have to live in one of these intellectual sinkholes to understand it.

First, most are astonishingly ignorant. They have no idea and no interest, period.

This is combined with a total blackout of any idea other than the corporate narrative. They 'know' that anything labeled conservative is good and everything else is very bad, possibly apocalyptic. They know this as certainly as any religious zealot knows they will get their reward after they're dead.

And absolutely no one is telling them any different.

And this is the same throughout vast areas of this nation.

This is what failure to lead brings.

[OHdem10]

20. The official in charge said these claims are unfounded.

I think and hate to say it, but I question some of Fox'
tactics.

[provis99]

21. I give Angle about a 5% chance of winning.

But only if she cheats.

[AsahinaKimi]

24. I seriously hope

People from Nevada are smarter than that. She seems like the type, that if elected, she would ban all Casinos from the state.

[DaveinJapan]

26. Sorry to say this, and I know it would harm a lot of innocent workers, but

that would be pretty fucking hilarious if she did so.

[AsahinaKimi]

30. I wouldn't put it past her... I wonder why no one ever asked her..

It would be simple. She's a fundy Christian. Most Christians hate gambling. She seems just the type to want to get rid of Casinos. Maybe she thinks she can turn Nevada into a lush garden state?

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JCMach1]

29. What is NONE OF THE ABOVE polling???, let me guess, they forgot to poll for that

Nevada has the NONE OF THE ABOVE option on the ballot as well.

[pstokely]

32. What happens if that option wins?

then what?

[SweetieD]

33. Yes I wonder about that. The NV ballot does have none of the above.

I think that will get up to 1% of the vote to be honest.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. I'm Bookmarking This Post

Next Tuesday we will know the Nostradamuses from the Nostradumbasses.

[Johonny]

35. But he could have been right either way

it's not like there will be 1000 election nights so we can find out if she wins 76 % of the time. There will be one night and one out come. So it will be impossible to tell if he was wrong.