I'm just talking out my ass here

[boston bean]

and I'm sure someone will make me realize just how wrong I am, with some wisdom that I haven't thought of (I say that respectfully, and with the hope that I am totally talking out my ass).

But thinking strategically, what way would be the best way for a Republican to win in 2012?

Possibly, split the vote of Democrats with the fear of a Tea Party candidate winning the presidency, or splitting it with what looks like a moderate Republican (almost Democrat).

Say the Tea Partiers put up a candidate and that candidate wins the Republican nomination. Then some easily disguised right winger who seems like a moderater Republican, who lost the primary, runs an independent. Or some variation there of. Past experience usually tells us that it would split the Republican vote. However, that is not how it is working in Florida. The split is amongst Democrats. And it's not just a plurality of votes we need to worry about in a presidential election, it's the electoral college in a three way race (possibly).

Is this really that far out there?

[Robb]

1. I think that would require a national atmosphere

...where third party candidates can garner significant support. I'm not sure we're there yet. The quick way for that to happen would be D's and R's both putting forth terrifically unpopular candidates during the same election year -- which would sort of wreck the whole idea of fielding a spoiler so the party candidate could win. :shrug:

[boston bean]

5. I think in those purple states the Right winger in Indy moderate sheep clothing

would probably take some states.

[Wednesdays]

11. There is a precedent, though...

Ross Perot took a large chunk of Clinton voters in 1992. Not enough to change the outcome, but who knows what might have happened if Ross hadn't quit and then re-entered the race that summer? :shrug:

[vi5]

2. Here's a good rule of thumb...

If any scenario you think of hinges on Democrats in a state of panic, acting like cowards, and doing things not in their best interest simply for some short term sense of maintaining any last vestiges of power they have regardless of how much of their souls and the souls of their base they have to sell in order to do so, then there's a pretty good chance that not only is that very likely but it's highly probable.

[madokie]

4. As much as I hate to admit it I think you're right

[Ineeda]

3. Putting aside the 2000 SCOTUS appointment of *...

isn't that what Nader did? He took votes away from Gore -- enough votes to be the kiss of death to the Dems. If Nader's votes had been out of the mix, it wouldn't have been close enough to steal.

[boston bean]

6. And the ballots in FL where people accidentally voted for Buchanon. nt

[jgraz]

7. .

dup

[jgraz]

8. And the ballot purges ignored by the DNC

At this point, continuing to blame Nader for 2000 reveals a political agenda with a casual disregard for obvious facts.

[Ineeda]

16. ALL those thing were factors -- including Nader. n/t

[jgraz]

22. All those things were BIGGER factors

Yet people continue to focus on Nader.

[KharmaTrain]

9. The Upcoming Implosion Of The Teabaggers...

This astroturf group was formed to stonewall the Democratic agenda until the GOTB regained some form of power. If they capture the House, then the need for the teabaggers will diminish...and that's where the fun begins.

Many of the teabaggers are former Paulbots and other right wing fringers...those who aren't going to dance to McConnell or Boner's tune nor will line up behind a Mittens or even Mooselini. Should Ron Paul decide to run again, watch out...it'll be a catfight within the rushpublicans as the "establishment" tries to squash the monster they created.

The problem with the teabaggers is they are against everything and stand for nothing. They're not a party as much as a lynch mob. And I'm glad they're inside the GOTB tent. Let the fun begin...

[boston bean]

10. Yeah, they have the tendency to make a Right Winger look like a lefty. nt

[vi5]

12. I disagree....

they (the teabag candidates who may win on Tuesday) will absolutely dance to McConnell and Boner's tune and will line up behind anything and everything the republican party stands for and wants them to do.

Someone like Rand Paul started ostensibly as a faux libertarian (a wingnut leaning libertarian, but more a libertarian than anything else) and look how quickly he's gotten on board with the christianist/facist right wing stuff.

None of these teabaggers have any views that differ in any major noticeable way from the mainstream of the republican party now. Yes, the teabaggers on the street and now up for office like to pay lip service to populism the same way the GOP power structure does but they will never, ever follow through and act on it. The right never has to account for their change of policy, their changes in beliefs their changes in opinion and nobody ever holds them to task for it.

[KharmaTrain]

13. Watch For The Over-Reach

I agree with most of your points...especially that there is no real difference in what the teabaggers stand for (if they really know themselves) and the rushpublicans in general. But they're a subset of a bigger machine...one that will attempt to exploit these losers just like they have the fundies. Yep, offer a lot of lip service but serve the real masters who bought them the election...their corporate masters.

Watch for goons like DeMint in the Senate and Pence in the House become...or attempt to become power brokers by lining up a lot of the teabaggers and the bully pulpit of hate radio. The fun will be when there's a clash between the two and I expect it to happen early and often. It may even result in a leadership battle and surely will spill over into their 2012 primaries. This year the teabaggers are a useful tool for the rushpublicans...but many won despite, not because of the "establishment".

Cheers...

[vi5]

21. I hope you're right.

I'll be happy to see that happens. I'll cross my fingers.

[Uben]

14. The absolute best way would be to........

....nominate a reasonable candidate who holds rebuilding the middle-class a top priority without regard to partisan bullshit!

But, unfortunately, they're not that smart.

[Yeshuah Ben Joseph]

17. Well that, and the fact that

I don't think Thom Hartmann wants the job ;)

[Yeshuah Ben Joseph]

15. Evan Bayh?

He didn't walk away from the very DLC betrayal of this country that he spent decades working for, for no reason.

He (or Lieberman) would be the right wing tools most likely to attempt a Crist type fearmongering scenario

I can see the spin now...... "It's either him, or President Palin !!111!!!!"

[deaniac21]

18. Too far off to even conjecture.

[lumberjack_jeff]

19. The best way for a Republican to win 2012

In corporate boardrooms, privately promise the world.
In public, kiss Glenn Beck's ring, and whip up paranoid fantasies among the ill informed.

[Motown_Johnny]

20. this is a variation on the speculation about Bloomberg running as an (I)

and taking a few states so that neither major candidate wins 270 electoral votes.


Then the election is decided by The House with each state getting one vote.


Since there are so many low population states that are (R)s it is reasonable to assume that Obama has no chance of winning under this scenario. The wild speculation is that the House would vote for Bloomberg as a middle ground to settle the election instead of giving the Presidency to a tea bagger.



I think it is pretty far out there because I think Obama can still win 270 even in a 3 way race with Bloomberg (pundits pushing this don't account for some southern states splitting the (R) votes and going to Obama by default).

Not really talking out your ass, more like your navel. Close though.