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And so I posted my endorsement of Biden and volunteered for his campaign. I ended up a precinct captain, responsible for rallying and organizing Biden supporters in the room on caucus night. Working as a precinct captain gives you first-hand access to a campaign’s internal data about how many firm supporters have been recruited in your area; in my case, it was immediately clear that we had a very steep hill to climb with less than a month before caucus night. We campaigned hard to bring more people in, but as I trudged through the snow to the caucus site on Thursday night, I was pretty sure I knew how things would turn out.
And “turn out” turns out to be exactly the right phrase to explain what hit my precinct last night. We had more than enough Biden supporters to maintain viability in any other recent caucus, but this year’s precinct turnout was triple the historical average. That pushed our viability threshold way above any number we could hope to attain in an auditorium filled with Obama, Edwards and Clinton supporters. I talked to supporters of other second-tier candidates and tried hard to win them over to our corner, but this was to no avail. My heart sank, and I called our group back together to tell them it was hopeless and we would have to disperse to join one of the viable groups.
In retrospect, Biden probably peaked in mid-December, when his candidacy appeared to pick up steam every day and Chris Matthews declared him the third mostly likely candidate to win the nomination behind only Obama and Clinton. But then came the Des Moines Register’s endorsement of Hillary Clinton, which, while it obviously did little to help Clinton win Iowa, badly hurt Joe Biden by reinforcing, definitively for many Iowans, the pervasive impression that no matter how much you may like him, Biden could never win. It became a self-fulfilling prophesy.
After the caucus was over, I drove over to the Biden party in downtown Des Moines. When I arrived, CNN was playing on the projection screen, confirming our worst fears about the statewide outcome. Very shortly thereafter, the video feed was replaced with a photo montage of Biden campaigning in Iowa. A little after 10:00 PM, Biden walked up to the rostrum, his family behind him as always, to announce that he was dropping his bid for the White House.
The only dry eyes in the house belonged to Joe Biden.
http://pajamasmedia.com/2008/01/iowa_biden.phpBe sure to read the whole thing.