I Want Sestak To Win, But Believe He Shouldn't

[gokira]

I like Sestak's politics, but believe he'll get crushed in the G.E.

The fact of the matter is he is a horrible politician,not meaning politician as in lying, but politician as in the way he conveys his policies to voters, He kinda reminds me of McCain , pimping his military record, that's all he said in the debate, the way he speaks is terrible, so i would hold my nose and vote for Specter because the pity vote won't be there for Sestak and November

[Aramchek]

1. exactly. What good is a Nominee who can't get elected?

[polichick]

2. Toomey is a nutjob - Sestak can run great ads against him, the way...

...he has against Specter. PA is blue these days - not nearly nutty enough for Toomey to win.

[JackintheGreen]

10. Never forget, we elected Santorum. n/t

[dchill]

11. We also unelected him.

:shrug:

[polichick]

20. Yeah, but that was before people wised up to the crazies...

And man-on-dog Santorum was definitely NUTZ!

[krawhitham]

19. Maybe you haven't noticed nutjobs are making a bg come back and winning more than they should

[polichick]

22. Can't see enough people here voting for Toomey though...

In any case, Dems are more apt to go to the polls if they can vote for a real Dem - and Sestak is it.

[AllentownJake]

45. Sestak ran one good ad

The no-brainer ad a 10th grade poli-sci class could put together.

We'll see the ground game operation tomorrow. Sestak doesn't have the troops Arlen has.

[polichick]

48. imo he followed up that one (the Specter/Bush/Palin ad) with another good one...

...the simple compare voting record on Democratic issues ad - that was a one-two punch that made a big difference.

This time I think Dems will also vote against the establishment bullshit.

[AllentownJake]

49. Who knows

We are in PA...and Sestak is about as much establishment bullshit as it gets.

He was an Admiral and I don't hear him talking like Smedley Butler. :rofl:

[skipos]

3. Why is the pollster average Toomey 42.9 vs. Sestak 36.9, Toomey 48.2 vs Specter 39.1?

Why does that make you think he will get crushed compared to Specter?

[Oregone]

4. Those are actually promising results for Sestak

Specter is well-known, and seemingly not liked. Its too late for him to form a compelling narrative. The opposite is true for Sestak, who is doing almost as well

[karynnj]

42. I think they are promising for both

I have nothing to link to or even clear cut examples, but I assume that a large reason the numbers sum to much less than 100 for both is mainly in a very nasty, close, hard fought race, there are many strong proponents of the non-polled Democrat refusing to chose. This seemed to happen in Obama vs McCain polling, when he was the certain nominee of the Republicans, but the Democrats were not yet 100% certain. (Or it was certain, but the Clinton people were still in denial and suggesting there were still ways she could win.

As to Sestak not speaking well - I did not see the debate(s), but he was extremely personable and articulate when he spoke often in 2006/2007 on Iraq. I suspect that it is harder to impress people in primary debates as the difference in broad issues tends to be small. (Think of 2008, I saw few (if any) people changing their favorite due to any of the many debates. In 2004, I think that the debates once it was down to Kerry and Edwards, did increase Kerry's margins - and it countered the media's infatuation with Edwards. I don't think earlier debates played all that big a role - but when it got down to just Kerry and Edwards (and the unlikely Kucinich), there was no contest who had the greater experience, depth and knowledge. )

In a general election, either Sestak or Spenser could make the case that the state was more in agreement with their positions. The key might be if PA really does swing to the right.

[dchill]

5. On the other hand: Arlen Specter.

How did we get stuck with having to seriously consider this asshat, anyway? As a resident of PA, I really have to try.

:puke:

[saltpoint]

6. I am rooting for Joe. I think he is more likely than Arlen to whup Toomey

in the general.

Also I hope Pennsylvania voters won't decide their primary choice based on whether there'd be a "pity vote" in November. I don't want politics conducted on that basis.

[IndianaGreen]

7. Sestak is leading Toomey in the polls, while scumbag Specter is lagging way behind!

Comparing Sestak to the lunatic flip-flopping McCain is like comparing a healthy looking apple to a crumbled cement block.

Putting a D after Specter's name did not change the facts that Specter is a POS that must be defeated!

[yurbud]

8. and Specter is Mr. Charisma?

[dchill]

9. No, actually, I believe he's known as...

Mr. Magic Bullet theory.

[yurbud]

13. that too. proof he is a kept man.

[jbnow]

33. Arlen is Mr. 80 year old charisma at that and with a republican governor

almost certain to be elected in November. If health problems stopped Specter from serving out his term the governor would pick his replacement

Also Dem primary voters are unlikely to be inspired bu Specter. They might well get out and vote to prevent the crazy right winger... but it will hardly be FOR Specter
I think of NJ and Virginia... where the Dem was not inspiring and too many stayed home...

[Jennicut]

12. Sestak is surging in the GE polls and the primary polls right now.

Specter seems to be going backward a bit. I think Sestak has a better chance of beating Toomey.

[saltpoint]

25. Hi, Jennicut. Agree. I think a better chance bordering on much better chance

to beat Toomey.

[freddie mertz]

14. WTF?

You obviously really "want" Sestak to win.....

Not.

:eyes:

[tsuki]

15. Vote Arlen because Joe worked out so well for CT? nt

[JI7]

16. i worry about the same thing with him, he just doesn't seem to be up to it

[TheKentuckian]

17. Time to give up fear based reactionary politics

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

18. I disagree. I think Sestak is what Dems need. He apparently knows how to run an effective

campaign. And he's doing what many of us having screaming for Dems to do: use "their" own words against them. That's the beauty of YouTube, video and audio; you can catch people lying. Had the Dems done this in 2000 and 2004--even Obama in 2008--we wouldn't go through all of the shit that we do in election campaigns.

[WeDidIt]

21. Latest polling shows Sestak has a chance while Specter gets SMASHED by Toomey

Sorry, but nominating Specter = Senator Toomey.

[socialist_n_TN]

23. Yeah, that's what I thought too...............

Maybe something's changed lately, but everything I saw last week showed Sestak with a BETTER chance to beat Toomey than Specter.

[saltpoint]

24. Agree -- all the current polling gives Toomey a

commanding lead over Arlen but a within-the-margin-of-error lead over Sestak.

I just did some hunting around on Intrade.com and found that they are given Arlen only a 33 percent chance of winning. They think it is going to be a Sestak victory on Tuesday:

http://www.intrade.com/

[boppers]

26. Sestak closed at 75 for the party nomination

Republican candidate (Toomey) for the GE closed at 69.9.

[saltpoint]

27. Yes. I'm not all that familiar with Intrade but I'm poking around the

site trying to get a feel for it.

From what I can tell Specter was riding very high for months until May and Sestak just floored it and Specter is tanking.

[thatsrightimirish]

28. I think Sestak can win

Right now he is going up against not just Specter, but Rendell and the White House. Despite all that things are looking good for him

[saltpoint]

29. Yes. For what it's worth, Intrade.com gives Specter no better than a 30.0

chance to win the nomination.

Sestak is at 75.

[polichick]

53. I agree - I'm guessing he will win against Specter and against Toomey...

Dems here are not happy at the way Obama has moved right and don't much care who he is backing in this race - they want a progressive and are very used to voting against Specter.

[Chisox08]

30. I believe that Sestak can win as long as

Specter doesn't pull a Lieberman and run as a Independent in November. Specter is a opportunist and more than likely will flip back to be a Repuke as soon as it is safe to go back.

[thatsrightimirish]

31. he said in the debate today

that he will support the Democrat to prevent Toomey from winning/

[saltpoint]

32. I think Pennsylvania has a "sore loser" law which prohibits Specter

from running as an independent after losing in one party's primary.

[AllentownJake]

38. We do nt.

[Inuca]

36. No, he won't switch back

Specter may be many things, but being an idiot is not one of them.

[DCBob]

34. Sestak said Sunday that he wouldn't commit to supporting Sen. Arlen Specter

if Specter won... What's up with that?? Does that mean he would support the GOP candidate?

Read more: http://www.philly.com/inquirer/local/20100517_Senate-race_rivals_split_on_pledge.html#ixzz0oB2K6fnS

[Inuca]

35. While Specter answered right away

that of course he will support Sestak. One thing this shows is that SPecter is a better politician. I saw the interview, Sestak's refusal to answer (repeatedly) was awkward.

[AllentownJake]

37. Sestak is awful

I swear, other than the anti-Arlen thing, he's got nothing going for him.

[DCBob]

39. No shit. He always seems to come off like he's holding back and not quite telling the truth..

at least Specter "sounds" honest.

[AllentownJake]

41. He is a pretty bad speaker

plus he treats his employees like shit. Arlen is Arlen, but he at least takes care of his own people that aren't family members.

[polichick]

54. His voting record is pretty progressive - that's important, isn't it? nt

[DCBob]

40. I did not see it but even reading the report sounds "awkward"..

Not quite sure why Sestack would even say that.. Is he leaving open the option to run as an idependent?

[AllentownJake]

44. Sore loser law

He can't. Sestak was just being Joe Sestak...a certified ass.

[MH1]

46. Sestak: "I'll do whatever it takes" to defeat Toomey

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20100517_Specter_and_Sestak_agree__Defeat_Pat_Toomey.html

Sestak, a retired Navy admiral retreated to his military service, saying it prevented him from considering any option other than victory.

"However, I'll do whatever it takes to make sure Pat Toomey doesn't win," Sestak added.

I didn't see the interview but this is a direct quote. Funny how the folks trashing Sestak are spinning it completely differently, and leaving out this very plain statement. :eyes:

Kinda like all those "I heard Sestak really isn't progressive" nonsense posts. :eyes:

[DCBob]

47. So then why not say he would support Specter if he won??

:eyes::eyes::eyes:

[Orsino]

43. Then Specter will learn nothing...

...except that we like whatever the hell it is that he does.

[dumpdabaggers]

50. I worry the "job offer" thing will hurt other Dems if Sestak is nominated.

That has the potential to be one of the CONS fake scandals.

[flamingdem]

51. Don't forget youth and polls, their votes are never included since they use cell phones

They would vote Sestek, no?

[polichick]

52. Unfortunately few will show up to vote in a primary. nt

[AllentownJake]

55. yep college semester is over as well nt.

[polichick]

56. My college kid is voting as a favor to me but wasn't even aware of the primary...

...he's been so busy with final projects and exams.

[Phx_Dem]

57. I want the person who can beat the Republican candidate to win.

Whomever that may be. I don't live in PA so I don't care, and Specter is a Dem and votes with Dems so . . . .:shrug:

[Bluenorthwest]

58. Specter is a national joke

And he kinda reminds most of us of Reagan, as he tries to recall what party he is a member of this week. He stammers, and comes out with the wrong words, constantly. So voting for him because he speaks well is interesting to say the least.
The polling seems to show that Arlen would be destroyed in the General, by the way. You 'believe' and this faith based 'I know the future' routine is tired, old, and absurd on its face. Your arguments are nonsensical, your wording strongly editorial.
Arlen is a shame to the Democrats of PA. He should be removed, and replaced with an actual Democrat, Mr Sestak.

[Thrill]

59. Whether Sestak can beat Toomey or not. You really have to give him

credit for continuing to fight when no one thought he had a chance.

[HillGal]

60. Rasmussen had a poll out last week and Sestak has a better chance of winning the GE than Specter

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

In the GE

Toomey 50%
Specter 38%

Toomey 42%
Sestak 40%

[ProgressOnTheMove]

62. Agree, it's likely Specter has a lower chance as the Republican voters didn't like he jumped ship.

[Mass]

61. I remember having read that Sestak could not beat Specter a few months ago.

We'll see if he can, but certainly where the polls are at this point should tell us what we can do with early polls.

At least, he did not make a speech saying he was changing party for political opportunism.

[MH1]

63. recent polls show Sestak better against Toomey than Specter does

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_pennsylvania_senate_race.html