Quinnipiac Poll--CT Senate: Blumenthal: 50% McMahon: 40%

[WI_DEM]

Quinnipiac
7/28-8/2/10; 1,299 registered voters, 2.7% margin of error
1,003 likely Republican primary voters, 3.1% margin of error (separate sample)
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Connecticut

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
47% McMahon, 30% Simmons, 14% Schiff (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
54% Blumenthal (D), 35% Simmons (R) (chart)
50% Blumenthal (D), 40% McMahon (R) (chart)
57% Blumenthal (D), 30% Schiff (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Richard Blumenthal: 57 / 30
Rob Simmons: 40 / 14
Linda McMahon: 43 / 37
Peter Schiff: 16 / 9

[bigdarryl]

1. wasn't he like 20 points ahead of her at one point

what the hell is wrong with voters in this years election with these close poll numbers with crazy ass rethugs running for office.It's almost like act crazy and you might get elected we have Angle, McMahon and Forina all crazy bitches on the rethugs side running very close to democrat incumbents.

[Jennicut]

2. It is normal the closer you get to election time to have races tighten.

But I still don't see her beating him. His favorable ratings are very, very high.

[WI_DEM]

4. true, and I think that the favorable ratings will in the end give the Dem victory

Blumenthal has a very high favorable rating with McMahon is much lower.

[CTyankee]

12. Where are Dick's ads? Hers are all over on TV, as you know.

There is so much on her that can be brought out. What is he waiting for?

[Dawson Leery]

15. Perhaps Steroids buying millions in air time has

something to do with this?

[DrToast]

5. I don't know if Quinnipiac has polled this race yet

He was 20 points ahead by other pollsters.

[FBaggins]

20. They have... several times.

He was 41 points up in January.
33 points in march
25 in May
20 in June
17 in July
and now ten points up.

Quinnipiac hasn't made their switch to likely voter screening yet. In other parts of the country that would mean that this race is close to being a danger spot again... in CT maybe it's a good thing.

[Beetwasher]

7. He Had A Big Scandal That Took A Hit, These Numbers Are Big In Light Of That

n/t

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Linda McMahon is a criminal herself

She is one of the many unindicted co-conspirators in the steroid probes in the '80s, while she was the CEO of Titan/WWE

[Beetwasher]

6. The Senate Picture Is Looking Better And Better For The Dems, I Won't Be Surprised If We Gain A Seat

or two after all the dust settles.

[HERVEPA]

8. Lay off the drugs for a while

[KingFlorez]

9. There is the potential for pickups

Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio are within striking distance.

[Beetwasher]

10. You Obviously Haven't Been Paying Attention To The Individual Races

And probably have a limited understanding why the Senate is a wholly different animal than the house.

[HERVEPA]

11. I've been following politics for 40 years

I'm sure I have at least as much or more knowledge on this as you.

If you really think this might happen, you might want to place a bet in the Iowa Electronic Market

You could get almost 99:1 odds. (see below). This is a real market. http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

You could get about about the same on INTRADE.COM


Trader: xxxxxxx

8/4/2010 2:46:39 PM Iowa Electronic Markets
Senate 2010
Contract BestBid BestAsk LastPrice QuantityHeld YourBids YourAsks
DS.gain10 0.016 0.017 0.017 0 0 0
DS.hold10 0.830 0.836 0.838 0 0 0
DS.lose10 0.147 0.153 0.146 0 0 0

[WI_DEM]

13. Well why didn't you respond with that instead of a smart ass answer like "lay off the drugs"?

It would have been nicer.

[HERVEPA]

17. You are correct. Wish I hadn't done that answer.

I was in a rush at the time, and had more time later.
That said, perhaps you need to do a little more research before a post which really is way, way, way unlikely.

But apology stands.

[golfguru]

16. In defense of HERVEPA

the post was so dumb, it required a smart ass answer.

[MadBadger]

18. The problem is that the Republicans have a lot of sure thing pickups

Indiana, Delaware, Arkansas, North Dakota. They will win those four seats and take them from us. I cant think of any seat that we dont have currently that we will definitely win. There are a lot of seats that will be very close, including those that we could lose, like PA, CO, IL, and NV

[Imajika]

21. From what I can tell the odds are something like this...

...at this moment in time for the US Senate:

Best case scenario - GOP pickup of 3-4 seats
Mid case scenario (most likely) - GOP pickup of 5-6 seats
Worse case scenario - GOP pickup of 7-8 seats

There is almost no chance the Republicans can win back the Senate, however it is also extremely unlikely that we won't lose a net of at least a handful of seats.

The House on the other hand seems to be in play. At this moment in time the Dems stand a good chance of retaining their majority with a few seats to spare, however if nothing happens to change the dynamic by November and the economy continues to flounder there is at least an outside chance the GOP could win the 40 or so seats they need to capture the House. Even if they get close, and assuming a few Conservadems/Blue Dogs remain, the Democrats could lose their working majority even if they have the votes to keep Pelosi at the helm.

It is shaping up to be a tough cycle, but with commanding majorities from 2 previously fantastic cycles, this was to be expected. All we have to do is retain control in both houses with at least a small cushion to have been considered victorious. 2012 will almost certainly be better for us that 2010, even if the economy is just as bad as it is now, due to the voters who are most likely to turn out.

[FBaggins]

23. I'd say that your best case is accurate.

Your mid-case is possibly one seat optomistic.

The worst-case scenario, however, is overly optomistic. The worst case almost certainly involves losing the Senate.

In a wave election (not saying this is one, but that IS the "worst case") you lose all or nearly all of the competitive seats... and there are 11-12 Democratic seats in play right now.

[Dawson Leery]

14. I find this hard to believe.

As someone from CT, Steroids McMahon is getting her support from the GOP which will do anything to destroy the current President.

[Kingofalldems]

19. Uh oh-----someone not liking this one

Hmmmm----->:shrug:

[saltpoint]

22. McMahon certainly has the bucks to contend in a

U.S. Senate race but by all evidence she doesn't have a central nervous system, and you know, a brain.

Advantage Blumenthal.

[CTLawGuy]

24. she has been all over the air

bc she was in a primary, while he hasn't been campaigning heavily. Look for that to change soon.