If Obama Has A Primary Challenger in 2012, It Will Be From The Right of the Democratic Party

[Yavin4]

Here's why:

1.) In order to mount a successful challenge, you would need money and lots of it. That would mean that you'd have to raise it from corporations such as the finance, big pharma, etc.

2.) According to all polls, Obama is the weakest among White, working class voters, who are very conservative on social issues. A primary challenger would have to appeal to those voters.

3.) Also according to the polls, Obama is weak among independent voters concerned about big government spending and the deficit.

4.) Obama polls extremely well with African American and Latino voters, so a successful primary challenger would have to have strong appeal to primarily White Democratic voters


In sum, contrary to many here on DU, and throughout the Liberal blogosphere, Obama is most vulnerable to a primary challenger on his right than he is on his left. A conservative Democrat who takes conservative positions on social positions, is a deficit hawk, and is seen as "pro-business" would be able to raise a lot of money through corporate donations and appeal to voting blocs within the Democratic party that are luke warm about Obama. Moreover, if a left of center Dem also challenged Obama, then that would make it even easier for a right of center challenger to Obama.

[ibegurpard]

1. lol

obama IS the candidate for the right of the Democratic Party

[DJ13]

2. +1

I doubt the left gets fooled again.

[Yavin4]

4. Uh, No He's Not. Not By A Long Shot

Evan Byah, who already has close ties with Big Pharma is more conservative. Bill Nelson of Florida is another candidate.

[Lorien]

5. +1,000.

which is exactly why he needs a challenger to the LEFT.

[Yavin4]

7. The Lack of Even a Remote Understanding About American Politics on the Left Is Truly Stunning

The amount of total ignorance about the American politics is beyond belief.

[Raine1967]

19. No, please be aware that it's NOT the left -- it's a small but vocal crowd.

I consider myself Left, and I understand not only what you are talking about, but the politics how things get done these these days.


There are some people who want nothing more than a left wing version of the former occupant of the office. The decry how radical that one ws, and are upset that this POTUS isn't as radical, so in turn they strawman it claiming he is nothing more than a corporatist, sellout, B*sh lite, just like Bush, etc.

That is not the majority of the left. Many on the left understand this political environment, and this President. I am one of them.

[great white snark]

24. Well Said.

And I'm right there with you. Or is it left there with you?

:applause:

:thumbsup:

[tallahasseedem]

25. Great post!

I completely agree!

[Yavin4]

28. You Are Correct. There's Left and Then There's The Democratic Party's Left

The Dem party left is primarily African Americans, Latinos, Unions (in particular Govt. employee unions), women, and some young people. The Dem party left is firmly behind Obama as they were behind Clinton.

And like you state, there's this extremely small and insignificant Left that believes they have some pull in the Dem party, but they have none.

[Enrique]

3. how would a democrat run to the right of Obama?

promise to invade Venezuela?

Seriously, though. On what issues. Instead of a moderate republican health plan(Romneycare), a conservative Republican health plan? Instead of only some Bush tax cuts, all Bush tax cuts? Instead of Robert Gates as Sec. of Defense, bring back Rumsfeld?

[Yavin4]

6. Easy

A conservative challenger would be a strong deficit hawk. Pledge to be bi-partisan. Be even stronger on defense, esp. Iran which would also appeal to the pro-Israel voters. Say that he will be "pro-business".

A right of center Dem challenger would get tons of money from corporate interests right off the bat.

[Enrique]

10. that's Obama

you're describing someone who can out-Obama Obama. Name such a person.

[JVS]

21. Bayh

[Yavin4]

26. Yep. And He Already Has Close Ties to Big Pharma

He could raise millions in an instant.

[bluethruandthru]

15. That would be a republican.

Contrary to how the right wing media portrays Obama, in reality he is a center-right Democrat.

[Bluenorthwest]

8. Obama is the righty Democratic candidate

Any more to the right and he's a Republican. He is against equal protection under the law, he favors discrimination. Get a grip!

[DURHAM D]

9. Your incorrect assumptions are stunning.

[Me.]

12. +1

Would that I could

[Jackpine Radical]

13. Please elaborate.

He's scaring me.

[Yavin4]

27. Can You Elaborate?

?

[karynnj]

11. It would be easy to make a similarly serious argument on why it has to be from the left

Including the fact that Democrats who vote in the primary are further to the left than the entire population of Democrats.

In reality, Obama is sufficiently close to the center of the Democrats. This means that there is not enough "space" on either end to mount a serious challenge. Remember that in 1980 Kennedy, who had more name recognition than any remotely possible Democrat to challenge Obama, could not get enough support running against a President firmly to the right of the party.

Just think of the geometry of it - place Obama in the center of a line. Now place an imaginary person to his right (or left). Now make the (bogus) assumption that Obama and this person are equally strong and people decide JUST on who they are closer to. The more you move this person to the right, the less votes they get.

[depakid]

14. That's a laugh- as usual

if he has a challenger, it will be from someone who appeals to the constituencies that he and his blind followers have spent so much time alienating.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. I agree with you and I'll go you one further (in response to the snark posted above)...

It's fine to sit there and say Obama is the right of the party. However, that does not change the fact there are many conservative Democrats who consistently vote against Pres. Obama on anything from the stimulus, healthcare reform to even the jobs bill and unemployment benefits.

Who on the left is opposed to Pres. Obama similarly to say Ben Nelson from the right?

Dennis Kucinich? No. He's voted for all of Obama's domestic programs.

Russ Feingold? He might not make it to 2012 as a sitting senator (though I think he will). Even then, I don't think he'd run against Obama.

So who?

Then you look at the fact most polls show Pres. Obama's approval among Democrats to be anywhere from 80-90% and you see a very narrow window there for a candidate to break through. Of that potential 20%, how many are progressives and how many, as Yavin24 said, are white conservatives who bit the bullet and voted Obama in 2008 - but maybe aren't liberal or even moderate?

It'd be interesting to see an ideological breakdown of that Democratic support. Though we know for a fact his weakest support comes from the white community, who tend to be more conservative.

Ultimately, though, I do not believe a well known Democrat on either side of the ideological spectrum would ever run against Pres. Obama.

Anyone who thinks there will be a substantial primary challenger is dreamin'.

[Mojambo]

17. I think he fears a challenger to his right more than one to his left

Which is why he's leaned that way.

He's left more room for a challenge from his left.

[Jim Sagle]

18. Oh, bullshit.

[Hippo_Tron]

20. Sounds like the primaries all over again

I can't count the number of times I heard somebody say that Obama doesn't poll well with white working class voters.

[DailyGrind51]

22. Not a chance! More "Grayson" than "Gingrich" I'd say!

[Arkana]

23. This hasn't happened since 1968, and if I recall it didn't work out

well for Democrats.

It has no chance of happening in the modern era.