Daily Kos highlights toss-up Governor races

[WI_DEM]

(So far they show Dems takiing GOP governor seats in HA, CT, MN with GOP taking WY, TN, IL, MI, PA, IA. These seats will determine which party controls a majority of the nations governorships and will have the most say in redistricting:

TOSS-UP (6 D, 5 R): California, Florida, Maine, Maryland, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin

In these eleven races are the key to whether November will be greeted with smiles or frowns in DGA or RGA headquarters. If all the lean/likely/comfortable races fall as projected, the GOP is looking at a net gain of three governorships, which would place the balance of power at near-parity (26 R/24 D). If the toss-ups fall disproportionately to the GOP, then they could have a pickup of anywhere between 4-9 seats, which would ensure that a solid majority of the nation's governors will be Republican when redistricting kicks off in 2011. But if the toss-ups swing back toward the Democrats, they could hold or even slightly pad their majority of the statehouses, an almost inconceivable show of strength in a trying electoral climate.

CALIFORNIA: This is a classic battle of terrain versus money. California is a blue state, one where the generic lean to the Democrats is fairly profound. But the GOP has a candidate (Meg Whitman) who has already spent nine figures out of her own pocket to hold the seat for the GOP. Whitman has been within the margin of error of Democratic nominee Jerry Brown throughout. Should Democrats be concerned that Whitman has been able to pull close in what is admittedly an ugly climate, or should Republicans be concerned that Whitman has all of these inherent advantages, and still can't pull into a consistent lead?

FLORIDA: Few races have shifted more in the last few months than the race in the Sunshine State. The GOP primary in Florida (which comes to a merciful end of Tuesday) has been one of the most expensive, ugliest affairs in the 2010 cycle. Rick Scott spent nearly $40 million to win the nod, and polling in the past week shows that his efforts will be for naught. But Bill McCollum has gone from a lock to hold the seat for the GOP to a guy with no money (having blown his war chest fending off Scott) and badly damaged favorability. Democrat Alex Sink, meanwhile, has been able to look like the grown-up for the past few months, and has moved into a slight lead. Bud Chiles (the son for former Governor Lawton Chiles) looked like a potential Dem spoiler when he announced early in the Summer, but polls show him drawing fairly evenly from both parties. This would truly be an improbable pickup for the Dems, who were watching Sink trail by double digits to McCollum just four short months ago.

MAINE: Maine's gubernatorial elections are often a mystery to predict, because this is a state that is not afraid to embrace Independent candidacies (witness Governor Angus King, who served two terms here as an Independent from 1995 to 2003). The pattern holds in 2010, as Democrat Libby Mitchell and Republican Paul LePage (a surprise winner in the GOP primary) are joined by Eliot Cutler, a former Democrat who has polled in the double-digits as an Independent candidate. Sadly, only Rasmussen has deigned to poll the general. Their predictable results (great news for the GOP!) have yet to get outside confirmation, but one wonders if a teabagger-friendly candidate (LePage was the weapon of choice for the movement in the primary) can win in a state that Barack Obama carried easily in 2008.

MARYLAND: In the mid-Atlantic, one of the most high-profile races in 2010 is this sequel of one of the more high-profile races of 2006. Democrat Martin O'Malley, the former mayor of Baltimore, scored a clear win over then-incumbent Republican Robert Ehrlich four years ago. This time around, Ehrlich is back, but the strong Democratic tailwind of 2006 has been replaced by a headwind whose strength might be debatable, but whose existence at this point certainly is not. O'Malley still holds a slight lead, which might be legit. Ehrlich is clearly a known quantity, so the usual rules about challengers having a lot of upside may not apply here.

NEW MEXICO: This race has a lot of intriguing quirks to it. This was a state that seemed to shoot from a bellwether state to at least a light blue state in 2008, when Obama carried the state by 15 points. But outgoing Democratic Governor Bill Richardson is another one of those relatively unloved second-term outgoing executives, and the GOP nominated a Hispanic woman from bluish Dona Ana County in District Attorney Susana Martinez. Democrats counter with Lt. Governor Diane Denish. Every recent poll in this race (although it has been a while since we've seen one) has been a pure coin flip.

OHIO: If there is a race of the eleven that is flirting with leaving "toss-up" status, it is this one. Ted Strickland is an incumbent that is clearly struggling with public approval, and polls show him starting to trail former GOP Congressman John Kasich. Strickland's ace-in-the-hole might be Kasich himself, who cashed in big time in his post-Congressional days and will have to defend a few things (Lehman Brothers comes immediately to mind) that might be tough to defend in the current environment.

OREGON: This race joins Florida as a race that has changed markedly in recent months. Former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber has come out of several years in the political wilderness to reclaim the job he held between 1995 and 2003. The national climate seems to be holding him back a bit, as well as the unique opponent he faces--Chris Dudley. The GOP nominee is largely known to Oregon voters as a bench player for the NBA's Portland Trailblazers. While Dudley built up a fair amount of name recognition from that gig, his political chops are still somewhat of a mystery. The DGA is helpfully trying to fill the gaps with a new website which is a fairly effective attempt to define Dudley. Expect Team Kitzhaber to work hard to define Dudley politically in a state where the terrain should still favor Democrats incrementally.

RHODE ISLAND: One thing is near-certain--the GOP will lose their nearly two decade stranglehold on the Rhode Island governor's mansion. The question is whether the GOP will be replaced by a Democrat (state treasurer Frank Caprio) or a Republican-turned-Independent (former U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee). Chafee is not a standard-issue Republican, of course. He endorsed Barack Obama in 2008, and was the least conservative member of the U.S. Senate when he served from 1999-2007. Caprio dodged a primary when state Attorney General Patrick Lynch elected to stand down several weeks ago.

TEXAS: One would suspect that, in this climate, an incumbent Governor in a traditionally Republican state should be safe and sound in 2010. In the Lone Star State, at least, that suspicion would be way off. Incumbent Republican Rick Perry survived a high-profile primary from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, but the fatigue that comes with longtime incumbency (he has already been on the job for nearly ten years) has put him in a fairly difficult position against Bill White. White may well have been the strongest Democrat the party could have fielded: a popular former mayor of Houston who has been able to go blow-for-blow with Perry on the fundraising front. The polls have been so close here that it is impossible to call this a "sleeper race" anymore.

VERMONT: This race, despite being a toss-up, has received little attention and scant polling. Republicans have held this seat since 2002, when Jim Douglas replaced outgoing Governor Howard Dean in an upset over Democratic nominee Doug Racine. With the seat open in 2010 upon Douglas' decision to retire, Racine is back. He is not alone this time, however, as a quintet of potentially competitive Democrats are in the mix. The Democratic field will shake out next week, with Tuesday's primary. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz is generally considered to be the favorite, but this could be close. Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie has been quietly waiting, raising more cash than the Democrats and hoarding it (Dubie doesn't have a primary). This one could be extremely close: while Democrats dominate the state in federal elections, the GOP is often competitive in statewide offices.

WISCONSIN: It is a battle of the greater Milwaukee area in 2010, as three candidates repping the region are the frontrunners to replace outgoing Democrat Jim Doyle. The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who also served for years as a Congressman from the region. On the Republican side, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former southern Wisconsin Congressman Mark Neumann are squaring off in next month's primary. Walker was considered the strong favorite, but he did not have the best week, as charges of latent racism followed a video put out by team Walker that meant to criticize the President on mass transit, but wound up being a pretty ridiculous unforced error by Walker. Polls give Walker a narrow edge, but Barrett is still very much in the game.

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[Lost4words]

1. sums New Mexico nicely, Martinez would be a train wreck for NM

thanks :hi:

[Greybnk48]

2. I think voters will go for Barrett in Wisconsin

I don't think it's wishful thinking on my part. Barrett is strong in the polls and hasn't really been saturating the air with ads like Walker.

[WI_DEM]

3. Yes, considering all of Walker's advertising the race here in WI is close--Walker is up by a few

points but it's been in the moe. I think that Barrett will do very well in Milwaukee and with Feingold on the ticket the turnout in Madison/Dane Co will be strong and that will benefit Barett as well.