Are Democrats Waking Up? (Charlie Cook)

[FBaggins]

A new poll suggests Dems may turn out in higher numbers than expected.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20101002_4174.php


A certain ebb and flow marks every campaign year. In 2010, as everyone knows, most of the flow has been in the Republican Party's direction. But if a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is correct, the tide may have ebbed a bit.

The survey shows the two parties still tied at 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot test among all registered voters, just as they were knotted at 43 percent in late August. The more interesting result is that the Republicans' advantage among likely voters has dropped from 9 points in August, 49 percent to 40 percent, to 3 points now, 46 percent to 43 percent. The new poll also revealed that a higher proportion of African-American and Hispanic voters appeared likely to vote than was the case a month ago. With voter turnout typically about one-third lower in midterm years than in presidential elections, the question of who shows up at the polls is critical. The "enthusiasm gap" has been a chronic problem for Democrats all year.

...snip...

Most of the experts who analyzed the NBC/WSJ numbers concluded that the results represent no big change in the overall political climate, but that Democrats could be getting more engaged. But one poll isn't a trend, and other high-quality surveys that carefully screen for likely voters should be examined for signs that Democrats really are becoming energized. The juice behind the GOP surge has been based in part on an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, with independent voters swinging strongly in favor of GOP candidates. In my view, the structure and direction of this election hasn't changed. A natural tightening is occurring. Republicans are still headed toward retaking the House and making substantial gains in the Senate, possibly enough to become the majority. The next round of quality polls of likely voters will show whether that assessment holds.

[Windy]

1. We were never asleep Cook... you had the HRC/Obama election wrong

and you have the midterms wrong!

[Colobo]

5. We will vote, and we will keep Republicans from destroying the Nation once and for all.

[prolesunited]

16. Yup

They have the timing perfect, a wave building to a crest within the month. If you recall, McCain was leading Obama and Obama peaked at the right moment.

We have to keep fighting for every vote, but the GOP ain't gettin' the keys back.

[olegramps]

22. I hope that you are right. I hate the thought of the Repubs returning to power..

[DCBob]

2. Better start adjusting those predictions Charlie!

and Nate!

[Cirque du So-What]

3. Trolls, you cannot keep good news suppressed

This thread was unrec'ced not ten seconds out of the starting gate. I have alerted on your disruptive asses, and I hope you are unceremoniously TSed.

[FBaggins]

6. Some people must just read really really fast. n/t

[caledesi]

9. Amen CDS! nt

[OHdem10]

4. Likely voter polls skew Republican or are waited Republican

because in usual times Republicans participate in higher
numbers in Mid Term elections. If you have polls weighted
toward Republicans it is logical the result will show
more Republicans.

DEMOCRATS, Fool the Pollsters!!! Get out and vote.
This is the answer.

Later, we can push our Members to be Democrats just
as Teabaggers push the Republican Members.

[jillan]

7. Woweee - this coming from Conservative Charlie - glad he finally noticed that we are NOT going back.

We worked too hard to come this far and we still have a loooong way to go.

[FBaggins]

12. Lol... I get a kick out of people calling Cook a conservative.

He's a lifelong Democrat. He used to work for the DSCC and the Democratic Policy Commitee, as well as at least one prominent Democratic senator.

Just because you don't like his predictions doesn't make him a conservative.

[jillan]

17. Really? Never knew that before, I always assumed he was a repug.

Learn something new everyday.

[bigdarryl]

8. Charlie go to hell with your bullshit polling the election is still 30 days away

[FBaggins]

13. Early voting starts in the next couple weeks.

The people who keep preaching that nothing starts until after Labor Day are living in the electoral past.

We basically have two weeks to turn this thing around.

[rocktivity]

10. The "flow" has been in the Rethug "direction" because people like you PUT IT THERE, Charlie

You and the MSM tried to make the Tea Bag movement look mainstream and declared the GOP return to power a done deal. Now that their candidates are falling over their own feet, the 10/2 rally accomplished its mission of outdrawing Glenn Beck's, and "the professional left" can take some comfort in Rahm Emanuel's departure, it is the media that are waking up to the fact that the spell they tried to cast is dissipating.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[FBaggins]

15. Yeah... that's gotta be it. The economy is great... everyone has a job...

...progressives are getting everything they expected from solid majorities in the House and Senate and the first real progressive president in decades.

It's all made up.

[RepublicanElephant]

11. nice try, repubs.

spinning this lie of repubs leading in the polls to "legitimize" their planned election theft next month.

it's gonna look kinda suspicious if all these dems turn-up and vote!

[Change Happens]

14. One poll is not a trend, but other polls have showed the same thing, recently

I think even last night someone posted here a Newsweek poll showing few points DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE!!!

Edit: Just found the link the post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=463584&mesg_id=463584


Gallup showed them even at 46%.

So yes, the momentum has shifted!!!

[butterfly77]

18. Cook never kmew what...

in the hell he was talking about anyway. Cook has been showing up for months trying to downplay the Dems voting or not.

He show up on cspan a few weeks ago and was hostile to the callers because they told him he didn't know what in the hell he was talking abou.,

Cook got angry and told one caller they didn't know what they were talking about because he has been on the ground for months, For which I say, which ground,what ground and how did you ask your questions,go to ...

[CADEMOCRAT7]

19. We are fired up and ready to vote. Just wait and see how awake we are !

[impik]

20. Oh really?

Just because you tools decided that the election were back in June, doesn't mean it was so. You tools just continue to underestimate Barack Obama, no matter how many times he kick your collective ass.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

21. To whatever extent we were "asleep", then yes

:eyes:

Of course, given that the Republicans have been repeatedly and obsessively obstructing votes on things in the Senate, the Republicans and the "teabaggers" have had a LOT more time to go to campaign events and rallies, and to appear on TV to bemoan the "lack of progress" (that they themselves are playing a significant part in) while the Democrats are busy actually, you know, governing, and trying to figure out ways around Republican obstructionism in the Senate.

:banghead: :mad: