Insider Analysis: Predictions of Democatic Defeat Premature

[babylonsister]

Insider Analysis: Predictions of Democatic Defeat Premature
Sat, 10/02/2010 - 09:48 — Anonymous
by:
Linn Washington Jr.

snip//


Where many analysts see a political tsunami washing away Democrats, the political tea leaves read by Clyburn and others point to a different outcome.

“There are a number of districts around the country where Republicans represent districts with Democratic majorities and this will change,” predicted Clyburn, who represents South Carolina’s 6th District that includes the state’s capital of Columbia.

“For example, Joe Garcia is ahead in Florida and Cedric Richmond is leading in New Orleans,” Clyburn said during a wide-ranging interview at the Tribune. Clyburn co-founded the now defunct Coastal Times weekly newspaper in Charleston, SC.

Philadelphia Congressman Chaka Fattah, who joined Clyburn for the Tribune E-Board interview, also declared that Democrats “will not lose the House or the Senate” using a similar calculus to Clyburn’s.

While partisan self-interest definitely drives this electoral perspective of Clyburn, Fattah and others, emerging evidence seems to support their point of view.

more...

http://www.thiscantbehappening.net/node/234

[and-justice-for-all]

1. It is nothing more than the M$M hyperbole...nt

[babylonsister]

2. OK. But people get their news from somewhere. That's the

maddening thing; will they listen to Beck/Hannity/etc., or anyone else.


I have a brother who adores Hannity and thinks he is a god. We don't talk.

[babylonsister]

4. Got a link for that, btw? nt

[and-justice-for-all]

6. I do not have a link to my opinion based on my observation..

and results I get from knock on doors.

[babylonsister]

7. So you assume people are watching 'something' and not influenced

by anything? Or their opinion is unexpurgated because they are into politics?

[and-justice-for-all]

25. Your pessimism is rather dull and quite the downer...

and no, I do not buy what the M$M is selling and I am rather optimistic about November. I think I can take a consensus based on the people I have talked to and the door I have knocked on, and I am sure they are easily exposed to the same trite M$M bullshit as everyone else and the majority of them will be voting Democratic.

In other news, I am not at all entertained by your Debbie Downer disposition.

I 'assume' a win, while you 'assume' a lose.

[Clio the Leo]

3. Well, Joe the Biden has said we wont lose our majorities ....

.... either he was trying to fire up the base/donors or....... we wont lose our majorities.

We shall see.

[babylonsister]

5. Haha! What else would he say?

He'd say that even if he was worried, but ... wait for it... Joe knows. :rofl:

[Clio the Leo]

9. No, he keeps making a POINT of saying it. He's doing it on purpose...

.... if he thought we wouldn't keep the majority (or wasn't trying to fire up the base) he wouldn't make such a point of saying it. No one's asking him, he's volunteering it.

Reminds of his claim that we'd have a month that saw a half a million new jobs. ........ which we did. :)

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. I'm not one to frequently complain about rec/unrec, but why would "Democrats" unrec....

news like this? What possible motive could there be to depress news from our own Reps, who are merely trying to counter the M$M spin? I hope the new rules will address this anonymous troll feature, otherwise known as "unrec".

[babylonsister]

10. It has been happening on here constantly, for months.

I am with you: why the admins allow it is beyond me.

[Tarheel_Dem]

12. The fact that we're only days away from an important midterm is reason..

enough to cut the crap. I'm hoping the results of the survey will soon be made public so that we know where DU is headed.

[Hekate]

18. Good question, right frame. The answer of course is that "Democrats" would NOT want to depress news

... that is good. Not at all.

Hekate

[Tarheel_Dem]

23. Bingo!

:thumbsup:

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[CLANG]

39. There is no requirement to be a democrat or liberal to sign up to DU.

There are a lot of republican trolls on this site.

[jaysunb]

11. This is a great strategic move by Dem leadership.

Let the media drive the Repub narrative all summer.

Trust the majority of the public to understand what's really going on.

Throw the kitchen sink at them in late Sept. and all of Oct.

Superior organizing tools, more money and a positive message of optimism will win the day for us. But we've got to GOTV !

[grantcart]

13. I am talking to a lot of friends who are more involved in Congressional campaigns

this time than they were 2 years ago.

Since that election there have been a number of by elections in traditional Republican seats that ended up going Democratic.

Republicans may find that some of their folks are also targets of anti incumbent feeling as well.

The Republicans have definitely counted all of their chickens even though the eggs haven't even been laid.

[Scurrilous]

14. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Radical Activist]

15. Something I've been saying for a while.

Claiming an election based on polls six months in advance was total media idiocy.

[DFW]

16. Howard Dean has been saying that all along

We might still lose the House, but for that to happen, a LOT of very knowledgeable people will have
to turn out to be wrong.

What burns me up is that Republicans have the Supreme Court decision (and thus a $100 million cash
advantage) on their side, plus a 24/7 media blitz (Fox) for free--another billion dollar advantage.
If we had campaign finance reform, and both parties were on an equal financial footing, the Democrats
would have 300 House seats and 70 Senate seats in the next Congress.

[MrScorpio]

17. Finally, some good news

There is absolutely NO reason why we should lay down and die while the Republicans take on.

NONE whatsoever.

[Kahuna]

19. K&R! Thanks for the positive news!

:hug:

[treestar]

21. It was always pure media drama to begin with

That's why they took the polls too early.

It is like 2008, when McCain first appointed Palin, and they had a "surge in the polls."

But then people realize what teabaggers are really like . .

[Cognitive_Resonance]

22. K & R nt

[Bluenorthwest]

24. I agree

The stats guys and the pundits are living in a dream world. There was no election to poll until late last month, no trends, no nothing. The whole narrative was made up. It is still too early for any serious predictions of any kind. Because this is the world, not a spread sheet. We hold both houses. It is too early for that to be a serious prediction, but it is what I think.

[AtomicKitten]

26. An enthusiastic K&R.

:thumbsup:

[saracat]

27. I pray to God this is correct.

[Beetwasher]

28. Lot's Of People Are Going To Wake Up The Morning After The Election Saying:

"Whuh happened?"

There are going to be lot's of disappointed Republicans and pundits.

[smiley_glad_hands]

29. K & R. eom

[old mark]

30. I was hoping we could surprise the GOP and just leave them in total shock

after we kick their ass in 3 weeks. I have NO doubt we can actually win this one if we vote...there is no secret, just convince Democrats to vote.

I think much of the "GOP will win" hysteria is working in our favor. I so want the republicans to lose this election I would go the the polls if I was on fire.


mark

[AspenRose]

35. Got that right....broken glass Democrat here

:woohoo:

[CLANG]

40. I want to kick their asses until they cry uncle

I'm "escorting" my son to his very first election this year. He's about as far-left as I am, and will pull the Democratic lever! I'm going to make damn sure everyone on my family goes to vote (all liberals).

[Joe Chi Minh]

31. Don't forget the machine vote. I expect them to be made 'natural persons'

under the law very soon. Or would that be guilding the lily?

[pleah]

32. That's what I've been saying!

Makes me think that they are hyping the thuglicans so an election theft won't look so obvious.

[DireStrike]

33. We're still gonna lose seats.

And we can't get anything done even with these majorities.

[Javaman]

34. While this maybe true...

all the tea party morons have to do is get one jerk in and the media will ignore the fact that dems won all the races except one. Then go on to tout the "game changing event in the political landscape".

Even if we win, we will still lose as long as the repukes hold on to the reigns of the propaganda machine.

[AspenRose]

36. Correct.

My kingdom for media reform....

[breadandwine]

37. Fact one, two and three:

FACT ONE: The corporate shills in the media are forcing down our throats the propaganda that we are going to lose. They are forcing it down our throats like a toilet plunger bolted to a jack hammer on steroids.

FACT TWO: This PROPAGANDA is a powerful force in its own right and dangerous and is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy to keep us from voting and it's working, dispiriting us. The message is, "You KNOW you're going to lose, so sit down, shut up and stay home!" It's a massive, well-funded conspiracy to QUARANTINE "over-abundant" Democrats. Unless you happen to have the moola to buy up all the networks with all their corporate shills by Election Day, we have an AVALANCHE of propaganda against us that we can't compete with.

FACT THREE: The other side is nationalizing the election and we're not. There are national issues and national hysteria going on in this country saying the Democrats are the Creature from the Green Swamp. But we are not scaring the public into voting against THEM. Michael Moore the other day called for a massive NATIONAL Democratic ad campaign - ads across the country. Imagine if there were ads around the country SHOWCASING the worst of the Tea Party candidates in order to brand the whole GOP as nuts, to SCARE THE LIVING SH*T out of voters. That might get our side to the polls. But we absolutely won't do this and are treating every race individually, triaging up the Wazoo and acting like every man for himself. The Republicans are supporting a flat tax on goods. That's a tax on nine bezillion products. THAT'S NINE BEZILLION TAXES. But we are quiet as mice about this. The Republicans are planning to get rid of Social Security. Social Security has been called "the third rail of American politics," something you just couldn't touch. Not anymore. Now the GOP can say this, that they are going to get RID of Social Security and we are busy hiding under the desk and in the closet, meeping and muttering that the Republicans only said this in certain races, so we can't make it an issue nationally. We can't paint the whole Republican Party that way. After all. Somebody might get mad at us!!!!

Clyburn, a guy I really like, says we'll win.

But the WHITE HOUSE is busy changing plaques on doors, going through staff musical chairs, and sending out feelers and trial balloons about installing Robert Gibbs as DNC chair, one of the stupidest things we could ever do as a party.

What's wrong with this picture?

There was a time when Democrats knew how to kick ass. Like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtYpnGZr6TA&feature=fvst

Goldwater had said we should nuke Vietnam and President Johnson beat the sh*t out of him over that. When was the last time you saw a NATIONAL Democratic ad (on TV, not just on the net to shut up the base) like that?

We don't do that sort of thing anymore.

[defendandprotect]

38. Anyone think that the right wing would be spending all this $$$$ if Repug win was a sure thing????