Allan Grayson is in SERIOUS trouble in Florida

[bigdarryl]

Someone posted this on the Huffington Post saying a back lash has taken place because of the Taliban Ad

[bigdarryl]

1. I found a article and its worst than I though someone needs to get down there ASAP

it's funny how a progressive fights back on a rethug and he or she gets this supposed backlash for being negative.The rethugs can go around calling the President of the United States every name in the book and get away with it I guess only the rethugs can be negative http://www.newsweek.com/blogs/the-gaggle/2010/09/29/alan-grayson-outspoken-florida-congressman-could-be-in-trouble.html

[karynnj]

20. Not negative - dishonest

It is unfair that the SAME backlash does not happen as readily when it is the Republicans doing it. There may be two reasons - they have an echo chamber that works well on defense and on attack and liberals/moderates are more willing to say that something is wrong - when it is - even if a liberal did it.

Other than Grayson, who needs to apologize, there is no one who can help by "going there". Who would you want to squander their own credibility defending him if he does not reject the ad?

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I think Grayson was in trouble prior to the ad...

Which explains why he ran it. Candidates leading in the polls (not their own leaked insider polls, mind you), generally don't go on the negative like that. If they do, it's almost always a bad sign.

I've suspected the Democrats could lose this seat for a while now. Nate Silver even http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/florida/8">lists it as lean-Republican and gives Grayson only a 39.5% chance of winning.

Of course, this is a very underpolled race, as there have been only two polls released over the past couple of months. The recent, a Susquehanna poll from Sept. 25th, has Webster leading 43-36, while a PPP poll from almost exactly a month earlier, had Grayson leading 40-27.

So one of those polls is wildly off. Of course, since PPP hasn't polled this race in about a month and a half, and the recent poll is only a couple weeks old, it might indicate the race has shifted recently.

The bottom line, no one knows exactly what to expect from this race. Surely Grayson isn't acting like a candidate who thinks he's got this in the bag. That doesn't mean he's going to lose, but I suspect he's more nervous today than he was back in August.

[RBInMaine]

3. He was on Big Ed recently saying he was up 13 points. "Taliban" may go a bit too far.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Yeah. That was one of his polls.

Never trust polls leaked by campaigns. They might not be awful, but they're never going to leak polls that are bad for their candidate. Even if the candidate leaks a poll showing them trailing by a point or two, it generally means, through an outside polling firm, they're down quite large.

That's not to say he isn't winning. Like I mentioned above, the only two polls released in this race contradict each other. So we don't know. But I suspect Grayson isn't feeling as confident as someone who would be up 13-points.

[RBInMaine]

6. I hear you. Grayson needs to take out the "Taliban" reference but keep hitting him HARD on the

ISSUES. Being very TOUGH is one thing and that is good, but at the same time Grayson doesn't want to caricture himself as going way over the top. Be on offense, but on the ISSUES. Don't go into over-the-top namecalling.

[baldguy]

9. And the only polls saying he's down are from Webster.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. Not according to Nate Silver's site fivethirtyeight.

[karynnj]

21. likely quoting the month plus old PPP poll that shows just that.

[RBInMaine]

7. Nate Silver is pre-mature,

[Chan790]

45. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Nate on this one.

You know being that he's a whiz at building accurate predictive mathematical/statistical models. I want to keep Grayson in office but I think Silver's read is largely right on the money, not just in Orlando but generally.

[Clio the Leo]

17. He was and the ad prob. didn't help....

... and I hope other candidates else takes note. We lose when we stoop to their level.

[Knight Hawk]

49. Right

I live in the adjacent district.Grayson was an abberation from the beginning .He will not win this race..................

[wmbrew0206]

64. I am not too far from his district and I agree. Grayson can't be as outspoken

as he was in that district. If he had Pelosi's district he could, but his district is not as progressive as Grayson is.

[DFW]

5. He is high on the Koch brothers' hit list, too

Alan Grayson has been the target of a LOT of the Roberts/Alito enabled money for months now.

The fact that he is even still viable at all given this huge wall of money and negative propaganda
thrown against him is a testament to the fact that in his Republican district, some people are liking
being told the truth about things, even if it has to come from a representative of the "other" party.

[vaberella]

8. That ad was stupid. So I'm not surprised. I was turned very turned off by it.

While on DU people loved it, which I couldn't get. Don't intentionally mislead the people. And for all intents and purposes---the American people, the voters who don't make up DU or leftist bloggers---don't like dirty politics like that.

[Mass]

10. This is the type of ads the GOP is running against our candidates.

Grayson was in trouble before and there is no proof he is more in trouble now.

While is it that we want to fight with one hand tied behind our back while the other side is busy sending nuclear bombs.

[vaberella]

25. The GOP is not us.

We are not them. I do realize that Grayson was in trouble before hand. However, I don't care about that. We need to rise above the uncalled for name calling. We need to focus on issues. People aren't into this pettiness and this is what I was talking about. Not to mention I don't think most people "got" this commercial. They saw the whole "taliban" thing and haven't gone beyond that.

I think we have really great commercials that are going around without commercials like that. Check out Rachel Maddow's show where we see Reid not calling Angle a taliban member but calling her out on her positions. And although that was what Grayson meant to do, it is obvious this commercial didn't help his cause.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/ <----Great commercial.

[Mass]

28. These great ads are from people who are as poorly placed as Grayson.

(and honestly, they are not that great, except for Reid's ...). So, we'll see in November. But I am not convinced that Grayson's ad hurts him.

[Chan790]

46. Actually, issues lose.

I could have told you that but other people whose opinions are far more respected than mine (like Lakoff) say the same thing.

Electoral winning is all about framing debates. A large part of that is demonizing your opponents frames and mouth-smacking them where they're weak. But if you want to continue to be marginalized out of existence, by all means think that issues win anything.

[Bluenorthwest]

11. That ad was spot on

It did not mislead at all. I see the entire 'faith community' with their hate and invective to be Taliban like, Grayson's opponent is an adherent of an extreme form of the faith trip. Taliban. Yep. You calling it 'dirty' and 'intentionally misleading' is cute, but I do not agree with that view, nor with the 'faith community' bashing other people with impunity.
McClurkin. Some folks put up with hate if it wears a cross, others among us do not play that game. I love Alan Grayson for standing up to the bullies and liars.

[muffin1]

14. +1

Some people hate it when the truth is told.

[vaberella]

24. Yeah I do see it as misleading---let's move this Taliban thing.

Don't look at that ad as someone intelligent watching the ad. Look at it as a common voter and a few voters who misspell. Someone who's tired and coming from work or someone busy and putting the clothes on their kids in the morning, and busy. This is not the kind of commercial that I find would make sense, and stupid. I find it misleading with the taliban name calling and I find it utterly ineffective. I'm all for great commercials that really throw these bums out of the water. This wasn't the commercial.

Harry Reid's commercials are great or this one is great: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/ This taliban thing will always overshadow the real story of the commercial. Out of most of it, I think most people will only remember the Taliban quote which would also be seen as an uncalled for and vicious name calling, which we know many don't respond well too.

[golfguru]

43. No Christian ever threatened to behead me

if I did not convert to Christianity. That is far far far different
from Taliban.

[Ter]

55. It was misleading

I heard the original speech and it was heavily edited to sound like men should control women, when in fact he did not say that.

[wmbrew0206]

65. You really need to learn more about the Taliban before you start comparing them

to the entire "faith community." Last time I checked the faith community did not execute homosexuals by building a wall and then toppling it over on them just for being gay or conduct public executions for adultery.

Also, the fact that Grayson used a clip where it was obvious his opponent was saying the exact opposite of what Grayson was trying to portray him as saying was stupid. I am sure there are other clips of Webster saying things that are out of the main stream that Grayson could have used instead.

[zipplewrath]

12. What was sad is that it was true

The vast majority of the ad is about Webster's positions on women and reproductive rights. And the ad was dead on. Dan is running away from his own record. But they had to throw in the 3 second quote, that was WAY outta context and the result has been a huge back lash on the three second quote with no one paying any attention to the rest of the commercial.

[karynnj]

19. I agree - and the worst thing is that that backlash pretty much makes it difficult to use the real

extreme positions.

[vaberella]

23. Which was my problem from the beginning.

And I felt, that could also be read as confusing for the people who are watching it. I don't want to say that I find the American public stupid. But I do find that, after a long day and they want to rest seeing a commercial like that doesn't make any sense and calling someone part of the Taliban is a problem. It screams of hypocrisy for some people who remember how Dems hate any equation of their officials as being weak on national security or "pal-ling around with terrorists".

These people wouldn't be looking at those commercials and getting it. If he was straight forward like this commercial: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/ns/msnbc_tv-rachel_maddow_show/

It would be more damaging to the other guy. The commercial above was poignant and really did the job effectively. Without this Taliban business.

[TwilightGardener]

26. Yep, and yep--fully agree.

[karynnj]

13. I hope he wins, but he deserves that backlash

The audio he uses is part but not all of a sentence - and it completely distorts the intent of that sentence. I know that some have said that the group Webster belongs to does believe that women should be subservient to their husbands. That does not mean Webster does, unless there are other quotes - that, in context, say that. Had they existed, Grayson should and would likely have used them.

This is something that we condemned when the Republicans did this - one of the more despicable times was in 2004. In 1971, Kerry was invited to speak before the SFRC on the Winter Soldier hearings. Kerry started his statement by doing what he was called to do - to report what he heard soldiers testify to. He then started a sentence by saying that soldiers spoke of .... (and gave a long list of atrocities that were in fact confessed to by soldiers in the full transcript that had had earlier been given to the committee). Kerry then used the rest of his time to call on the committee to provide what was needed by many of the veterans, arguing against continuing a war that couldn't be won, and then expressing a hope that our foreign policy would change.

In the ad, the SBVT, start the tape where the list of atrocities began. They then accused Senator Kerry of lying and of making those accusations himself. In fact, Kerry stated that soldiers confessed to those things - and they did. The committee and the military had the ability and means to investigate what was said, John Kerry didn't.

Both of these ads rely on the fact that people think they can believe what they see with their own eyes. Although Webster and Kerry both did say the words in the ad, their full sentences did not mean the same thing as was included in the ads. Neither ad is honest.

No excuses should be made by Democrats for what Grayson did. No argument of the sort that it's ok because Webster probably does believe that. In both cases, they are intentionally distorting what was said - and doing so to smear a political opponent.

What is truly stupid is that Grayson could have made an honest ad by simply leaving out the Webster audio. Webster's positions here are extreme. Grayson also ignored that the Republicans have an echo chamber and they can get the full tape out - and they have.

[Bluenorthwest]

15. Anyone who quotes Bible rules either belilves women should

be subservient to all men and submissive to the husband, or they are hypocrites of the fist division. Those are major teachings of St Paul, the same man whose writings are quoted to rationalize anti gay and anti equality policies. That is a fact. Any 'Christian' who does not believe those things is editing the scriptures to suit themselves. Period.
What is dishonest is this pretense that the NT teaches only 'no gays' and somehow says 'women are equal and can be anything they wish'. Big liars and fakes, the entire faith community, ashamed to own their own books.
I loved the ad. It was far more honest than the religion spouters will ever be. They are all liars and hypocrites anyway, devoid of human feeling. Fuck them.

[karynnj]

18. Then make the ad with the full quote or no quote at all

As I said - I think there are extreme views that could have been the basis of a negative ad - Webster is out of the mainstream.

The fact of the matter is that, even fundamentalists - of any faith - do not 100% believe every word in their holy scriptures, though they will say they do. Their great theologians will have pontificated explaining how what is meant is different than what it says on the surface. (Talmud scholars spent a life time doing so.)

You can not say that every Christian believes everything in the Bible - or that every Jew believes everything in the Torah. If asked, do you believe it, they will say yes - but in reality they likely don't. The fact is that a religion as practiced is more (and less) than the books.

Most Democratic politicians list a religion and I think it would take a huge amount of chutzpah to argue that that religion is not real. Yet, most of their worldview and their believes, though possibly informed by their religion, are not from their religion. You might want to consider that the "social justice" Jesuit type Catholic religion (and the Jewish concept of Tikun Olam) was behind many pushes to help the needy. Have you never heard the phrase "cafeteria Catholic?" Your kind of thinking leads to people labeling all orthodox Jews as religious, which I guess implies the rest aren't.

That you "love" the ad - even knowing that it twisted an actual statement is troubling to me. The ad is bad because it is easily debunked by playing the entire comment. Further, by debunking the ad, it takes away some of the credibility of the real underlying issue.

[onpatrol98]

50. Isn't our president a part of this faith community?

I think Grayson's ad stinks. I think it as a Christian. And, I think it as someone who has only voted for democrats for my entire voting life (almost 20 years).

He deserves the backlash. And, democrats will deserve the backlash also, if they keep up the insane rhetoric against Christians and Christianity.

Hypocritical??? What is supporting a Christian president (one who professes to be proud of his Christian belief system) and spewing profanity at the people who share in his faith. Hypocritical is when people muse enthusiastically at the prospect of republicans losing Muslim voters, while at the same time showing the same level of disdain for Christians.

There are a lot of Christian democrats. Is there room for us in this party? I think Grayson comes across as a buffoon when he strays from the issues.

There are a lot of Christian democrats on DU, also. Some too intimidated to mention it much. But, I think the party needs to come to grips with the fact that there are a lot of distinct groups under this umbrella. And, Christians are one such group.

Issues actually do work for me in an ad. Issues work for many working class adults who don't have the time or patience to deal with hours of silly, stupid, gotcha commercials. I need to know about their policies.

Taliban Dan...give me a break. There are a dozen legitimate issues to bring up.

[FBaggins]

16. Didn't need a poll or Silver rating change to see that he's in serious trouble.

The ad alone is proof of that. It's clearly a desperation move (whether it is arguably accurate or not).

[speppin]

22. He did go too far with the Taliban ad. But he has a month to

redeem himself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Live In The Next District

It's a purple district, I believe he's the first Democrat to represent it. Dan Webster has been a darling of the Christian Right since the 80's.

[book_worm]

29. of course it was a stupid ad on his part if a republican did a taliban ad on a dem

there would be a huge outcry here on DU.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AtomicKitten]

32. I was appalled by his "Taliban" ad.

It's the kind of stuff that sends Democrats howling when Rs do it. It's not okay when our side does it. We lose the moral high ground with that particular tactic.

[WeekendWarrior]

34. Come on, that ad was pretty ridiculous

Whoever advised him to put that on the air was an idiot. The ad could have been JUST as effective with out the Taliban nonsense.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

[Phx_Dem]

36. +1. I'd still vote for him, but it was a tacky ad.

[BlueIdaho]

35. Congressman Grayson jumped the shark.

It happens...

[Arkana]

37. He kinda deserved it for lying that blatantly.

His opponent is an absolute nutcase--there was plenty of truth for Grayson to draw on without having to resort to out-of-context remarks.

That said, I hope he wins--he's a much-needed voice.

[ibegurpard]

38. wow, lots of self-described DU "moderates" in this thread disgusted with Grayson

interesting

[RBInMaine]

39. Uh Uh. Not at all. We ALL want Grayson to kick ass. But he can do that without going into over-the

-top namecalling. Just beat the shit out of him on his crazy statements and positions on the issues, but outwardly comparing him to the Taliban is just going a bit too far and you can't blame people for calling him on that. Just pull the ad, and ATTACK the wingnut like hell on the all the issues but without over the top namecalling. That's all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. I Don't Think It Was The Name Calling

If he's done in it's because he distorted his opponent's words which is tangible.

[BeyondGeography]

42. What's the point of all the snark if he loses?

It's nothing but junk food politics if he can't hold onto his seat.

[NorthCarolina]

48. par for the course

we're 'all DLC all the time' now here on DU. Where have you been? :hi:

[demwing]

53. Fuck. Stop being the DU protector if purity, will ya?

"Moderates"?

In quotes, just because they don't like the damn ad? It's clear what you mean with your quotation marks, so why not just be honest and say it?

Are we not allowed to be critical of ANYTHING now?

[demwing]

54. Dupe. Self delete.

Nothing to see here... move along

[Drunken Irishman]

56. Not at all...

Read the thread. Grayson's commercial was misleading and probably hurt him more than helped. It has nothing to do with being liberal, moderate or conservative. It was a dumb move. A desperate move. In fact, I think it suggests he's losing.

I don't want Grayson to lose. But this ad backfired.

[robcon]

41. I have no use for Grayson.

He knew what he was doing was very wrong, yet he did it.

He was a hero of mine. No more.

[KansasVoter]

52. Wow, you are quite a friend I bet!h

[txlibdem]

44. I gave money to Grayson's campaign - have you?

This is one of the people we need to rally around.

On the ad: they've edited the taliban part out, just saw it on the Ed Show. They should run this ad on a 24-hour loop on all networks.

We need about 100 Allan Graysons in the Senate and another 400 in the House!

[Common Sense Party]

60. They edited the word "taliban" out, but kept the out-of-context quote?

The one that is 180 degrees off?

[Name removed]

62. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Imajika]

47. Obviously he is trouble...

It wasn't the ad that caused Grayon's troubles, he was already in trouble and went strongly negative to try to make up some ground.

There is an even nuttier Tea Party candidate in this race that could split off some of the Republican vote, but so far she isn't much of a factor.

[midnight]

51. How can this have had no recommends?

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[onpatrol98]

59. Your reply was...

Your replay is clearly ignorant and intolerant. Since you posted that link HERE ON DU. I assume it was meant for Christians on DU to read.

In addition, I assume this position, details how you feel about Christian democrats. I personally think attitudes like yours are what continues to drive the divisive nature in American politics today.

Apparently intolerance isn't unique to people of faith or political persuasion. I also assume you felt fairly safe posting that bigoted spill on DU. That's the biggest surprise to me. You felt no qualms sharing. One can't often be in the country club locker room to hear the jokes, comments, and derisive stereotypes dealing with ethnicity or sexual identity. Maybe that's what DU means to you...a special little locker room, where we can share derisive comments among like minded individuals.

Perhaps you don't feel anything in our political stances as democrats should suggest a level of tolerance or understanding.

You knew you were in a friendly environment, where others would either share in your belief system or feel insecure enough to be scared off from responding.

Okay. I get it. Today, I'll be the person that walked up while you were spewing this prattle. Unfortunately, in the country club, the person spitting it out - would feel a sense of shame. I know you feel none. If anything, you feel a bit of pride at the knowledge that you have officially offended me and others like me who wouldn't dare mention it for fear of being branded. But, I've met better bullies than you.

A bigot is a bigot...no matter the issue. My post will probably be deleted before yours. But, I'm okay with that, too.

Cheers...

:thumbsdown:

[Jim Sagle]

58. The ad RRRRAWWWXXXXX and so does Grayson.

[and-justice-for-all]

61. I will remain optimistic...nt

[girl_interrupted]

63. No one cared when Chambliss (R) ran an ad against Cleland (D)

comparing Senator Max Cleland to Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden in 2002, Cleland was a war hero and an amputee, but he voted against George Bush, "too many times", according to Chambliss. Chambliss won that election and still is a Senator from Georgia today. Yet there was no outrage by the media when the ad ran, for a veteran who had sacrificed his limbs for his country. Go figure.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/13/chambliss-cleland-truthful/

I really like Grayson, I'm sorry to hear he is so far behind. He was one of the few that really spoke to the truth. But I guess sometimes people don't like the truth.

[baldguy]

66. It's disturbing that some here at DU proclaim Gayson's supposed demise with such glee.

[denimgirly]

67. That is what i find surprising too...i mean WTF, DU...why so happy to see him go down?!?

Yea while reading the comments here there seem to be many here that are looking forward to him going down. Just from one single ad that had one comment out of context? And yet republicans all get passes. There have been a blanket of LIES in the ads against Grayson daily in Flordia but yet NO ONE here complains...they consider it acceptable and i wont be surprised people here will say grayson deserves the negative, lying ads against him.

Seriously, those who are hoping for his demise here on DU should be BANNED immedaitely because its truly disgusting...Shame on you here who hope he goes down!

[denimgirly]

68. DONATE TO GRAYON...NOW!!!