Fox News Poll--Angle up by 3 in Nevada!? Plus CT, MO & WVA

[book_worm]

With the exception of CT this isn't the best set of polls I've seen today:

NV:
Republican Sharron Angle seems to be solidifying her support in her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

In the first Fox battleground poll in the Silver State four weeks ago, 10 percent of respondents were either unsure, in favor of a minor party candidate or, as state law allows in Nevada, planning to vote for "none of these candidates."

In this week's poll, those three categories add up to 5 percent. Over the same period, Angle’s overall vote percentage went from 45 percent to 49 percent.

Democratic strategists hope to prevent an Angle win by driving up her unfavorable ratings and pushing voters to choose a minor party candidate or “none of these.” Angle was viewed unfavorable by 53 percent in the survey. But Reid was viewed unfavorably by 55 percent.

Angle's supporters are growing more certain of their support, too. Two weeks ago, 10 percent of Angle supporters said they could still change their minds. That number has dropped to 4 percent.

While Angle's lead is still within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, this is the first Fox battleground poll in Nevada to show a difference of more than 1 point.

The survey generally reflects a sharpening of opinion in Nevada. A strengthening among Democrats lifted Obama's job approval from 40 percent to 44 percent. Support for the Tea Party movement, meanwhile, rose from 25 percent to 30 percent.

The race remains a true tossup, though, because voters aren’t very happy with their choices. Fifty six percent of all voters said Reid had been in office too long and 53 percent said Angle’s views were "too extreme."

Connecticut:

Republican hopes to pick up a Democratic Senate seat in Connecticut face a tough reality on the ground.

Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a 10-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in a new Fox News battleground poll in the race to replace retiring Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT).

Blumenthal -- elected five times as attorney general -- took 52 percent support compared to 42 percent for McMahon, who built a professional wrestling empire with her husband, Vince. The survey was taken before the fiery first debate between the two, moderated by "Special Report" anchor Bret Baier, on Monday night.

Blumenthal was helped by relatively strong support for President Obama. Forty eight percent supported the job he was doing as president and only a slim plurality favored repealing Obama’s national health care law. Forty seven percent were in favor of repeal and 43 percent were opposed – the best showing for the plan in any of this week’s surveys

Missouri:

A new Fox News battleground state poll in Missouri shows Carnahan trailing Republican candidate Roy Blunt by 8 points among likely voters. Blunt, a seven-term congressman from the central part of the state, won the support of 50 percent compared to 42 percent for Carnahan, the second-term secretary of state

West Virginia:

Deep resistance to Obama's agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters -- 48 percent to 43 percent.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/05/fox-news-polls-gop-poised-gain-hold-senate-seats-key-states/

[bluestateguy]

1. These are Fox News polls conducted by people pushing an agenda

nt

[tridim]

3. Not only pushing an agenda, but FUNDING it.

[totodeinhere]

6. Except that other polls also show the race within the margin of error and winnable by either side.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.ht

Angle is crazy, but Reid is hated so much in this state that the race remains competitive. BTW, I am in Nevada.

[GSLevel9]

2. well...

I don't believe those NV results... CT won't be close but WV is such a really BAD demographic makeup for this political cycle and will go Pub.

[bigdarryl]

4. It seems the more NUTTY you are the better chance you have winning

This country is going to shit

[FBaggins]

5. There's really very little that's new there.

In some ways, the Mason-Dixon tie at 43-43 is just as concerning as an Angle "lead" of 49-46... and both are consistent with the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Reid "leading" 46-44.

In all of these polls, Reid is stuck in the mid-40s. It's clear that if Angle didn't keep sticking her foot in her mouth, Reid's chances would be close to zero. He's in very real danger of losing that seat and there's nothing he can do to stop it.

Fortunately... there's quite a bit that she can do to help Reid and she seems quite intent on trying. The race is therefore still a tossup. Given the shift to safe D in DE and the recent improvements in CA and WA, a win here in NV slams the door on republican chances at the chamber.

The other races listed are little different from what is already out there. CT is just about safe at this point. Missouri is almost certainly lost... and WV haw become one of the big dissapointments of the cycle (though still somewhat in play).

[book_worm]

7. WVA didn't have to be in play at all, but the governor insisted on having a special election this

year rather than waiting until 2012. His ego wouldn't allow having a special appointee hold the seat for two years.

[FBaggins]

9. That's commonly repeated, but simply untrue.

There was going to be an election this year, and there was little the governor could do to stop it. His choices were to either go with the lie that "it's too late to hold another primary" and then lose support when the court's slapped him down... or have the legislature clarify the language so that everyone knew what the rules were. This wasn't just his best chance to get into the race (arguably, he would have been much better off if he could have delayed until 2012), it was out best chance to hold the seat.

The principle in the law was quite clear. The people get to pick their representatives unless there simply isn't time to give them a vote... and the law defines what "enough time" is.

I suspect that the governor is enough of a Democrat to recognize an UN-democratic process is never in our long-term best interest (as well as being ethically wrong).

[Lyric]

26. Excuse me, but you have no idea what you're talking about.

There was NOT going to be a special election this year until Manchin pushed for it. Our Secretary of State examined the law and determined that there didn't have to be an election to replace Byrd until 2012. Manchin immediately proceeded to whine about how "unfair" it would be for an appointed Senator to hold that office office for two and a half years, and demanded a special election THIS year. Supposedly it's all to save us the "hassle" of having to elect a full-term senator plus a short (8-week) interim Senator in 2012, but his true motivations were blatantly obvious. Hell, he all but launched his own campaign practically from the moment he left Byrd's funeral. The whole thing was just nauseating to witness.

If things don't go well in West Virginia, don't just blame the right-wingers who are scared of a photo of Manchin and Obama. Blame Manchin himself for pissing off people on BOTH sides of the political spectrum with his shocking and classless power-lunge while his constituents were still grieving their loss, and for alienating liberals with his anti-woman, anti-gay, anti-environment politics. I'm a member of the WVU Young Democrats organization, and we've actually had members QUIT the group this semester because they couldn't stomach being involved with a group that's collecting money and canvassing for Manchin and Oliverio. I have never seen that happen before; our members don't usually "leave" until they graduate. Contrary to the constantly-repeated meme, it's NOT just the right-wingers that despise that guy.

As for me, I'm going to the polls in November, but it will be with a metaphorical gun engraved with the name "Raese" held to my head. I fully expect to vomit in the parking lot afterward.

[FBaggins]

28. Sorry... I certainly do.

There was NOT going to be a special election this year until Manchin pushed for it.

Wrong. The SOS tried to claim that it was too late to hold an election for this cycle and the law was somewhat ambiguous. The tortured reading would have meant that WV would hold a special election in Nov 2012 to fill the remainder of the term (at that point just a few weeks), and the election would be on the same day as the regular election to fill the 2013-2019 term. A pretty ridiculous result that anyone with two brain cells to rub together could tell was not the law's intent.

Our Secretary of State examined the law and determined that there didn't have to be an election to replace Byrd until 2012.

Yes. And the SOS was wrong and we would have lost in court (easily) had we tried to defend that determination. State law laid out a principle... the people elect their senator if one dies with more than two and a half years to go in the term. The language which the SOS tried to use to defuse that was that the election had to take place after a filing period and the filing period for this election had already passed. Just about any judge would have laughed that argument out. There is nothing in state law that limits the state to only one primary and/or filing period per year. They would have been ordered to create a new schedule for this race and our chances of winning would have gone right down the tubes as people came to believe that we tried to win by using our power to game the system. I pointed this out at the time (when it looked like we were going to try).

Manchin immediately proceeded to whine about how "unfair" it would be for an appointed Senator to hold that office office for two and a half years

Nope. Not "immediately". Manchin picked up that "whine" when it was clear that public opinion would turn against him if he didn't take that position AND that republicans were likely to sue (and win). IIRC, it was a week and a half later.

Don't get me wrong... There's no question that Manchin wanted this seat. There's also little question that Democrats (in general) wanted him to run for the seat (either now or in two years). He's just about the only (living) Democrat that would have been an assumed win and he's term-limited as governor. But there's also little reason to doubt that he would have been perfectly happy to finish up his term and run in two years. Anyone borrowing those same two bran cells could guess that 2012 would be a better electoral environment for Democrats.

Supposedly it's all to save us the "hassle" of having to elect a full-term senator plus a short (8-week) interim Senator in 2012,

It has nothing to do with "hassle". Let's make this really clear. You're on Democratic Underground... so of course we all share a desire to win as many seats as possible. But we're also supposed to stand for basic democratic principles. The People should select their representatives whenever possible. Going against that principle could have cost him the race.

[JuniperLea]

8. Only three points? In a Faux Gnus poll?

Wow... how many filthy libruls they got watching them these days?

:rofl:

[FBaggins]

10. The poll is consistent with the other polling in the race.

Three points is not enough to say that Angle is favored... and Reid's polled support (the most important indicator for such a well-known incumbent) is identical to the other polls.

[JuniperLea]

12. Which polls?

Rasmussen?

[FBaggins]

13. I think this one IS Rasmussen. But no... all of the recent polls.

See my #5.

The key here is that Reid is a VERY well-known long-term incumbent. If people were going to vote for him they would say so. The undecideds will either break for the challenger or they won't vote at all... so the key is how close to 50% Reid can get. It's almost irrelevant whether tha gap is two points in one direction or two points in the other... if Reid stays stuck on 43-46%, he's in real trouble.

By that measure, all the polls say the same thing.

[totodeinhere]

19. Too many people at DU refuse to remove their rosy colored glasses.

It's the same people who assured us that Scott Brown could not win in Massachusetts. In fact, before that election I even got flamed for just saying that Brown might win.

Every indication is that the race here in Nevada is too close to call and could go either way. Anyone disputing that is letting their partisanship get in the way of objective logic.

[golfguru]

27. Rose colored glasses....very funny

[still_one]

11. What do they mean by likely voters? white republicans? /nt

[bigdarryl]

14. FOX poll is disputed in this oped piece

http://www.lvrj.com/blogs/politics/Fox_poll_has_Angle_up_but_.html?ref=894

[Cognitive_Resonance]

15. The "none of these candidates" option will help to save Reid, and Angle's

"Got Juice" babbling should hurt her. She's actually been pretty reliable for a gaffe of some kind at least once a week. Anyone with that much crazy bottled-up apparently has a need to let it out at regular intervals.

[Ter]

16. In my opinion Angle is way worse than McDonnell

Yet we are hung up on her. I could care less if she was or still is a witch, Angle is saying insane things now in 2010.

[Arkana]

17. Fox News, nuff said. Of COURSE they're going to put Angle up on Reid.

[county worker]

18. I don't buy it at all.

I can't believe that voters in Nevada want a stupid person like Angle representing them.

I know the electorate is pretty dumb but I give them credit for having common sense.

[COLGATE4]

21. I hope you're right. The real problem seems to be that the

people of Nevada just can't stand Harry Reid any more (a sentiment with which I have found myself agreeing watching his hapless performance as leader of the Senate), so it's tough for him to pick up many more votes. We have to hope that the batshit crazy Angle manages to turn off enough Goobers so they don't vote and lets Harry squeak by.

[newspeak]

22. yeah, Reid appears not to have a spine

however, he is a senior senator with much influence and he saved jobs in Clark County. I mean we have a repug governor, and when they started attacking Reid on the stimulus, it is up to the governor's office to file for those funds. I am a progressive and think Reid is not bold enough to be leading the senate-but why Nevadans HATE him is beyond me. What exactly is there to hate?

Nevada is a tourist state, and I knew after 9/11 that we were going to be in a world of hurt on tourism--also, Little Boots assholeishness to other countries and lying for war doesn't help either. But, I knew tourism was going down. And, the further deregulation of Wall street and the mortgage debacle also happened under Little Boots. But, these damn fools want their country back?

So, this misplaced hate, and it is misplaced is beyond me. To vote for someone who thinks those on unemployment are lazy, those women who have been raped should not have a choice, federal departments like education should be abolished and social security "privatized." To me, she's a hypocritical corporate stooge. It's like those I've seen with Angle bumper stickers--they're elderly and you damn well know they're on social security and medicare. Also, the hypocrites shouting the loudest about supporting our soldiers, and she wants to privatize the VA and probably end GI benefits. Corporate stooge that's all she is and so are most of the teabaggers--they are funded by corporations and probably supported by organizations like the COC, who apparently happens to be getting money from foreign entities like China. Teabaggers, totally clueless.

And if Angle wins Nevada, I'd love to move somewhere else--but I'm stuck here. If I was younger, I'd even think about moving somewhere in Europe because "stupid" is just plain dangerous.

[elleng]

20. Consider the source.

[Zoeisright]

23. There's nothing dumber than people in a state getting rid of a POWERFUL

politician. I mean, it's just stupid to kick out the Senate Majority leader. Especially for an idiot like chicken lady.

[budkin]

24. It just goes to show how many people loathe Harry Reid

The fact that it's even a race is pathetic.

[Jennicut]

25. If Blumenthal is ahead by 10 points with a Fox News poll then it looks like I may not have to put up

with that idiot McMahon as my Senator. Getting out the vote will still be very important.