The Hill/ANGA poll of 12 tossup House races (all freshmen Democrats)

[FBaggins]

Note: ANGA is "America's Natural Gas Alliance". I have no idea why (or in what way) they're involved in the poll.


POLL: GOP leads widely, Dems in danger but race for House tight

In a poll of 12 hotly contested races that could decide who controls the House in the 112th Congress, Republican challengers are beating freshman Democrats in 11 — and in the last one, the race is tied.

But The Hill/America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA) poll also detected a glimmer of light for Democrats; not one of the 12 Republican challengers has reached 50 percent, and half of them have leads so small that they are within the margin of error.

...snip...

“Very few of these races are really put away one way or the other,” concludes Penn, who said the outcome in these districts lies in whether undecided voters will stick to historical trends and break largely for challengers or support their lawmakers.


http://thehill.com/house-polls/thehill-anga-poll-week1/122855-gop-leads-widely-dems-in-danger-but-races-tight


Comments: Not great news obviously... but there are some nuggets in there.

The first one that jumps out is the VA 5th that Tom Perillo took in 2008 in what was probably the closest race in the country. Yes, he's down by one and well below 50% - but this is his best showing (that I've seen) since Feb. Survey USA has polled there a few times since the Summer and and the gap has consistently been in the low-mid 20s.

The MI 7th tie is the best that Schauer's done in a poll I've seen.

These are all on Cook's tossup list and are all freshmen democrats, so seeing all 12 in danger is unfortunate, but not surprising. Next week's poll will probably be worse because they are polling only the competitive open seats... which aren't even tossups. It should get better after that as they poll sophomore democrats in week three and the finish with long-term incumbents that are considered to be in competitive races.

[bigdarryl]

1. Wonder if DUMB ASS Tim Kaine is going to put money toward them

[FBaggins]

2. Maybe a couple of them, but the "firewall" is a dozen seats down from there.

Just my guess of course.

If we lose twenty House seats, most Democrats will be exstatic... but the chances are high that many of these races will be in that twenty... as will likely all of the open seats that are currently rated as leans R or likely R.

So no real surprises here... and nothing that implies a bigger "wave" than current predictions expect.

[WI_DEM]

3. My guess is that this pollster is someone with GOP interests at heart

but I'm sure all of these races are close and have been targets.