With less than four weeks left to Election Day, the DCCC is reshuffling where it plans to air ads in the final weeks of the campaign - a key indicator of the its candidates' strength in key battleground states.
According to ad buy data confirmed by both Democratic and Republican sources, the DCCC has reduced its ad reservations for the second to last week of the campaign - Oct. 19 to Oct. 29 - in eight districts, seven of which are held by Democrats. In a few of the districts, Democratic sources insist that the changes were made from a position of strength. But in most, the reductions are a sign that Democrats are facing increasingly long odds.
The changes underscore the challenge facing the DCCC this year in deciding how to allocate its resources in what seems to be an ever expanding playing field. The changes show that the DCCC is trying to be a tactical as possible, allowing themselves the flexibility to shift money in the final week of the campaign.
As with all ad reservations, it is worth keeping mind that these numbers are fluid; they can change right up until ads are planned to air.
The DCCC has shaved the size of its ad reservations in 6 districts where Democrats are running behind their Republican challengers in polls. These include CO 04, where Rep. Betsy Markey has consistently trailed state Rep. Cory Gardner (R). Similarly, the DCCC has moved its ad reservations a week later in NM 02, where Rep. Harry Teague (D) is facing an uphill fight against former Rep. Steve Pearce (R).
In Rep. Chet Edwards's (D) TX 17, the DCCC reduced the size of its reservations for Oct. 19 to Oct. 25, scaling back 600 points. Edwards has trailed businessman Bill Flores (R) in most public polling, and this district gave John McCain 67% in '08. Democrats, however, insist that they are not giving up on Edwards, despite the district's conservative leadings. Even with the reductions, the DCCC is still matching the total number of points the NRCC has reserved in TX 17 during that week.
Similarly, the DCCC has shaved the size of its reservations on behalf of Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) in FL 24 from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25. Kosmas is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats this year. She is facing state Rep. Sandy Adams (R) and has already been the target of adds from the NRCC. As with Edwards, the DCCC still plans on matching the NRCC's planned spending there for that week.
Democrats have also made changes in a couple open seats in conservative territory that were previously held by Democrats. In IN 08, the seat vacated by Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), the DCCC has cancelled its reservations from Oct. 19 to Oct. 25. Recent polling has shown state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) trailing heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) by significant margins in this race. The DCCC has also cancelled its reservations during the same week in KS 03, where nurse Stephene Moore (D) is trying to hold on to her husband's seat in congress against state Rep. Kevin Yoder (R). The DCCC still has ad reservations for the last week of the campaign in both of these districts.
Not all the reductions were in districts where Democrats appear to be trailing. The DCCC also cancelled a week's worth of ad reservations in LA 02, where state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) is leading Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R) in a key pick up opportunity for Democrats. Richmond appears to be in control of this race, having aired an ad featuring Pres. Obama last weekend. The district also gave Obama 75% in '08.
Democrats also cancelled a week of ad reservations in AZ 08, where Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is running against Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly (R). Democratic sources insist the cancellation is because Giffords is running strong there, and point to her significant cash on hand advantage; Giffords has $1.9M in her warchest compared to Kelly's $78K.
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/dccc_reducing_a.php#more
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