WA poll (R internal?) Rossi 48 Murray 42

[FBaggins]

Looks like an internal poll to me. Definitely some "push" questions (though after the top line question).

http://americanactionforum.org/files/AAF_Polling_WA_09_10.pdf

[geek tragedy]

1. 100 respondents. Cheap-ass poll with MOE at +/- 4.5%. nt

[FBaggins]

2. Lol... that's 100 [b]percent[/b].

The sample size is 500 likely voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It Would Be Prudent To Ignore Internal Polls Regardless Of Which Party Conducted Them

I laugh when people post them.

[FBaggins]

5. Not "ignore" so much as "account for the bias"

But yes, internal polls released by candidates almost always means they're worried about how the public polls are perceived.

[Bumblebee]

4. He was ahead of Gregoire last time too, in all kinds of polls,

and then lost to her by more than 5%

[Teaser]

6. lol. wrong.

.

[Mass]

7. According to RCP, it is a Republican firm (not sure if internal or not).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wa/washington_senate_rossi_vs_murray-1183.html

It is also a week - old. So, let's see what other polls will bring. No doubt the race is close.

[marlakay]

8. i don't believe it

I just drove through wenatchee yesterday a very very very red city I live near and last two times he ran for gov there was Rossi signs all over the place...this time I saw one small sign on my way downtown and was surprised by a very large Patty one someone put out right on the main drive through town.

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[maxsolomon]

10. jebus don't let this be predictive of the vote.

WA state has absolutely no reason to prefer a grifter like Rossi over a proven advocate like Murray.

[GSLevel9]

11. I'll go stand in front of the WalMart in Kirkland

and ask passers by for their vote...

can I haz $100,000?

[book_worm]

12. Where do you keep finding these anti-dem polls?

[DFLforever]

13. I'll second your question

Seems a little bizarre to me.

[ampad]

14. What is your problem?

A poster posted an article yesterday stating that the dems were gaining in popularity. You brushed that off as wrong and I believe you even went as far as to say some folks here were posting internal polls to prove their point. Then you go out and post as many internal polls as you can and how cute of you to behave as if you do not know if they are internal or not. I'm talking about the question mark you put behind the word internal. Don't worry though. I live in Washington state. I believe that Patty is going to win. The last real poll I saw had her way ahead of Rossi. I wish I could remember what polling company hosted that poll but it was here on DU and it was not an internal poll. You might want to flip the names you have with those numbers in your subject line. I bet it just breaks your heart. Take that any way you would like. Oh btw, Rossi did what many Repigs did during this elections season. Blew his wad well at the start of the summer. He was ahead by quite a bit until Patty came out swinging. Now that everyone is settling down, it is fall, kids are in school, vacations are over, people started paying more attention. Hence Rossi falling behind Patty. Breaks your heart doesn't it?

[Upton]

15. I live in Washington state too..

and I'm not sure exactly what you mean by the "last real poll" showing Murray "way ahead." The last two polls I've seen, and granted they're Rasmussen and SUSA, have Patty trailing by 3% in one (Rasmussen) and leading by 2% in the other. This is going to be a real close race...similar to Gorton/Cantwell. Lets hope it has the same outcome.

You seem to have some kind of problem with anyone posting polls that aren't favorable to our side...why? Aren't they every bit as relevant?

[ampad]

17. What I mean by real poll

Is a poll that is not an internal poll by the campaign. That is what I mean by a real poll. Not hard to figure that out. Also I have no problem with people posting polls showing our side trailing. Matter of fact I think this is the first time this year I have made a comment about a poll. Internal polls are to be trusted now? The only problem I have is with this poster. A poster that went after another poster in regards to a Dem surge and was very critical about that particular poll that showed a dem surge. On the other hand, this particular poster is posting internal polls to prove a point. Last I heard internal polls swing all over the place. The last "real" poll I saw showing Patty moving a head was a few weeks ago on DU. A long time poster posted it and it was not internal. I also watched a king 5 news special which included a poll. A poll stated that Patty was moving ahead and that Dino was trailing behind. I have no reason to lie about that.

[FBaggins]

19. Where was I "very critical" of someone who posted an internal poll?

The only thing I can remember a thread by WI_Dem (who I have not criticised... he does a great job) that didn't mention that it was internal... so I added that to the thread.

the other hand, this particular poster is posting internal polls to prove a point.

By all means tell me why you think I posted this to "prove a point". I regularly post polls (good and bad) that I find before someone else gets them up here. What "point" was a I making beyond "here's the latest" ???

Last I heard internal polls swing all over the place

Not quite. They're actually more accurate than the public polls... but we hardly ever get to see those. The released internal polls look "all over the place" because candidates almost exclusively post them when they contradict another message (usually from the opponent).

[FBaggins]

18. Essentially all of the recent polls showing a Rossi lead have been Rasmussen

or that internal poll.

There's little doubt that the race has tightened again, but we're going to see lots of that over the next three weeks (mostly in our favor).

[FBaggins]

16. No problem at all.

A poster posted an article yesterday stating that the dems were gaining in popularity

That poster and I have had a running dialog on the issue for awhile now. Polls have a natural variability... the gap isn't going to stay constant even when the race doesn't change. But every time he sees a good poll, it's a "surge" and "momentum". The bad polls are entirely ignored. I've been using more recent polling information to show him that he needs to learn how to read the polling landscape. I apologize if that comes across as glee at apparent republican success. I assure you that's not the case. I would rather lose that argument a hundred times over than lose these races.

You brushed that off as wrong and I believe you even went as far as to say some folks here were posting internal polls to prove their point.

Not quite. I pointed out (correctly) that candidates who release internal polls usually do so for a reason... and that reason is usually that the race appears to be turning against them and they need to do something to build support (or fundraising etc). I make the same point here. Rossi releasing a two-week-old internal poll showing a lead is (probably) a sign of worry in his campaign.

Then you go out and post as many internal polls as you can and how cute of you to behave as if you do not know if they are internal or not.

I said that I thought it was internal when I posted it (which does not mean that it shouldn't be posted) and I confirmed it when I read the rest of the poll. I added commentary on how this was possibly good news. I have no idea why you have a problem with that.


I live in Washington state. I believe that Patty is going to win.

Good. I appreciate the local perspective. I hope you're right. It's beginning to look like WA may be one of a couple key races that determine control of the Senate. Please do what you can to keep people energized so that potential bad news early in the evening (from the east coast) doesn't squash turnout.

I wish I could remember what polling company hosted that poll but it was here on DU and it was not an internal poll.

Both CNN and the Elway Poll had her up by nine points a bit less than a month ago.


I bet it just breaks your heart.

What is, is. If a race looks like a loss, that's what I'm going to say (not the case here, btw). It has nothing to do with how I want the race to go. I've never understood people who assume that you're on the other side just because you don't think you're going to win. If my team plays with their starting QB,RB and both OTs injured and we have lousy backups... I can tell that our hated rivals are likely to beat us absent a miracle. That doesn't mean that I'm rooting for the other team.

Oh btw, Rossi did what many Repigs did during this elections season. Blew his wad well at the start of the summer. He was ahead by quite a bit until Patty came out swinging.

I have no idea what race you've been watching. Rossi has never had a large lead except in a single Survey USA poll that was quickly followed by an Elway Poll giving us a 17 point advantage.

On edit - I just looked up the financial reports for the race and you appear to be wrong there as well (with the caveat that the most recent reporting is from early August). Sen Murray had raised $7million and spent $6.8million of it (but still had $3million on hand from earlier years). The challenger had raised $1.85million and only spent $200k of it. The report indicates that she had more cash on hand, but not that he had spent it all early. Of course that's stale data... but we won't get the rest until just before the election.

[ampad]

20. No I do not think I am wrong

In regards to him blowing his wad I was not talking about money. I was talking about Dino not wasting the summer away. His ads hit the airways weeks before Patty had a single ad out. Not only did his ads hit the airways quicker, those ads were brutal. He went out swinging. The only ad Patty had out was an ad about the Boeing Jet mess. Dino hit hard with a very negative ad showing Patty walking on the backs of Washington state citizens. It was a very effective ad as Dino got quite a bit of bounce from it (according to local news polls). I remember wondering what the hell Patty was waiting for because that ad was brutal. Also, please do tell why the poll in the Dem surge post is considered invalid while you keep posting internal polls? That is what I am struggling to understand.

[FBaggins]

21. Thanks!

It's good to know.

That is, however, apparently the case in a number of other races. Republicans are getting outside help, but have spent much of their money while democrats still have dry powder for the last couple weeks. I don't know which is the better strategy in the end (with more and more early voting), but it hints at the possibility that things won't get any worse from here.

Also, please do tell why the poll in the Dem surge post is considered invalid while you keep posting internal polls? That is what I am struggling to understand.


And I'm struggling to figure out where you're seeing that. The only internal poll that I've commented on recently was the same position I've taken here. People need to understand where these polls come from and what they usually (or at least often) mean... that the candidate is getting worried. If that's a democrat's internal poll, that means we shouldn't be as excited as we would otherwise be (particularly when even that internal poll doesn't indicate that we would win the race)... if it's a republican's internal poll (as this one is), we shouldn't worry that it refects reality.

Unless I've badly mistaken which thread you're talking about, my debate re: "surging" has been entirely with a different poster who just needs to learn how to read polls. As I said on the earlier reply... any apparent "glee" is just being able to demonstrate that he didn't know what he was talking about... it has nothing to do with the fact that the proof also means that we're not doing well.

And (to the best of my knowledge) I've only posted two internal polls. So I don't understand where the "keep" part of your comment is coming from.

[ampad]

22. Something else to say

Got to get the kids to the bus stop.

I have been watching this race closely. It seems that you think that I have not because I stated that Rossi was once ahead and only one poll (survey USA) has indicated that. I'm looking at the date of that poll and putting it all together. That poll was released during the summer in August. At that time Dino was running a very negative ad while Patty was running a somewhat neutral ad about the Boeing jet contract. Putting that all together , IMO, that poll was probably going in the right direction. Also I think that considering the survey USA poll had Dino at 52% and Patty at 45% that it is not to be overlooked. Not to be overlooked because of the timing of the poll.

I am not under the delusion that this will be a close race and that there is a chance she will lose. However, considering that Patty's supporters are loyal and motivated while Dino's voters are not as loyal and or motivated is encouraging. That was indicated in the Elway poll, Patty's has stronger support than Dino. So no I am not just interested in polls that have patty in the lead. That does nothing to help her win. However, I am looking at patterns and details. I am looking at the fact that Patty has closed the gap. Details such as the fact that Patty's support is stronger than Dino's. Probably because people are starting to pay attention and Patty finally is running strong, hard hitting ads against Dino. When at the time that Dino was enjoying a lead she was barely running anything at all.

http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/KING-5-tracking-polls-A-Democratic-bounce-104309674.html

http://horsesass.org/?p=29859

[joe black]

23. I se alot of scumbag Rossi signs.

Mostly in rural areas hear in western washington. It concerns me.