The Surprising Democratic Firewall (Hotline)

[FBaggins]

Actions speak louder than words. That's why Democratic control of the House is looking more tenuous by the day. As the party begins to build its firewall to prevent a GOP takeover, top strategists are working to salvage seats that few considered Republican pickup opportunities just a few months ago.

The majority party is slowly starting to open its checkbook, spending millions of dollars on hard-hitting advertisements and mail campaigns aimed at undermining Republicans around the country. But the districts in which it is advertising were once considered safe, indicating that it is Republicans who have had the most success in putting seats in play.

This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running ads in seats held by Reps. Bill Delahunt (Mass.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Phil Hare (Ill.), Bill Foster (Ill.), Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Sanford Bishop (Ga.), and John Salazar (Colo.). In each district, Democrats won re-election by significant, if not overwhelming, margins in 2008. Now, Democrats view every one of those seats as endangered.

...snip...

"Our strategy is to win, and that's what we're doing. Reading anything else into it is not accurate. We're confident Democrats will hold the majority," said Jennifer Crider, the DCCC's communications director.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/the_surprising.php

Don't know why it's "surprising"... This seems like the smart plan.

[Imajika]

1. It may be smart, but it still gives an idea how grim things could be...

"Don't know why it's "surprising"... This seems like the smart plan."

It's just that we have to defend seats once considered Solid Dem instead of taking the fight to the GOP. Gives you an idea of the real state of this election cycle. It is pretty sad it has come to this.

[DrToast]

2. It's surprising where the firewall is

And a bit troubling.

[nevergiveup]

3. I can promise you that Bill Foster's seat

here in Illinois 14th was never considered safe. This is Dennis Hastert's old district and Foster was swept in by Obamamania in 2008 after winning a very close special election just a few months earlier when Hastert resigned. Foster will be extremely lucky to hold this seat.

[Teaser]

4. it's fashionable to read panic into Democratic strategy

this is simply logical in what could be a tough year.

Personally, I believe the odds have improved on Dem's holding the house. If I were to put a Bayesian probability on it, I'd put it around 40% right now

[FBaggins]

7. Yes... but it's beyond "simply logical" - it's the key

The key to the difference between a bad year and a year that makes us think that 1994 wasn't so bad.

I'm convinced that one of the big errors of that year was in mis-identifying where the dividing line was. You can throw lots of money and time at a race, but you're only going to move the end result by a tiny amount. So you want to pick races where your guy is just a tiny bit down (or up). I think that the dividing line in 1994 was a couple points beyond where we assumed it would be, so there were some one point losses that could have been narrow victories but we didn't have them on the radar screen... and some two point losses that our mis-targeted firewall efforts turned into one point losses (IOW... it didn't help in the end).

[Teaser]

10. can't disagree

.

[karynnj]

5. In Delahunt's case, he is not running, so looking at his numbers is kind of silly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Is A Dem Open Seat In Massachussetts In Jeopardy

That sucks. I believe the whole delegation has been Democratic since Barney Frank beat Margaret Heckler in 1982.

[FBaggins]

8. I wouldn't say "in jeopardy"

... but one is in play (because it's an open seat)... but that's like a one in four chance of losing it, and one (Tsongas) is only theoretically in play if the nightmare scenario becomes reality.

[karynnj]

9. I'm not from MA, and I haven't seen any polling

Their hope comes from Brown having done well there in 2010. But, we all know that that election might be an oddity, where a Democratic candidate thought she didn't have to campaign and made several gaffes. Maybe a Massachusetts person could say if anyone has polled this.