GOP Widens Lead (45-37) in Generic House Ballot, CBS Poll Finds (#$%#@)

[FBaggins]

Republicans have widened their lead against Democrats among likely voters in the generic ballot for the House of Representatives by six points since last month, a new CBS News Poll reports.

Republicans now hold an eight point lead over Democrats in the generic ballot, with 45 percent of likely voters saying they would support the Republican candidate for the House, and 37 percent saying they would support the Democrat. Last month Republicans led Democrats by a margin of only 2 points, with 40 percent saying they would vote for a Republican and 38 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat.

But while Democrats have lately been making widespread efforts to diminish the so-called "enthusiasm gap" between Republican and Democratic voters, the poll, which was conducted from October 1 - 5, indicates that the gap has in fact expanded. Sixty percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, while only 40 percent of Democrats said the same. Last month, 47 Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans said they were more excited than usual to vote. At forty-nine percent, Independents are now more enthusiastic than Democrats, the poll indicates.



Comment - One piece of entertaining good news: "When asked about the "Pledge to America" recently unveiled by House Republicans, 61 percent of voters said they had never heard of it" :rofl:

[FBaggins]

1. Link

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20018938-503544.html

Apologies. I was sure I put it in there but now it's too late to edit.

[LittleBlue]

2. An historic collapse

This is one of the most famous approval poll collapses in modern history. In only 2 years. It took the GOP like 10.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Can You Find A Poll We Like?

Seriously...I am preparing for the worst and hoping for the best so I don't look like an idiot on November 3rd.

[Radical Activist]

4. In a world of useless polls

there is perhaps none more useless than the national generic Congressional preference poll.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Radical Activist]

6. First, I'm not your Dear.

Second, I can find plenty of pollsters and political scientists who will tell you the same thing. But what exactly is your problem with my statement? Are you hoping Democrats will lose?

[smalll]

7. Yes, of course, the generic ballot poll is a very rough measure --

but when it swings SO strongly one way, it carries a lot of weight.

I'm not hoping for the Democrats to lose, but at the same time, I'm not ready to create audible sound facially while ambling by my local burial-ground. :shrug:

[Radical Activist]

8. It's a nearly irrelevant measure

especially when other recent polls are much tighter. This is an outlier. What people think in non-competitive Congressional districts is meaningless.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Respectfully

Don't you think it's prudent to prepare for the worst and hope for the best so we don't look like imbeciles on November 3rd. I have seen predictions that this could be the worst year for an incumbent party since .1894 when the incumbent party lost one hundred twenty five seats.

[Radical Activist]

11. When Gibbs said Democrats might lose Congress

he got a lot of criticism. People suggested that comments like that help to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and encourage Republicans. Those critics had a fair point. I think we should be realistic about the fact that we need to work hard, but not dwell on the media narrative they've been pushing for over a year.

[tritsofme]

15. How is this an outlier?

Looks to be in line with what most polls are showing right now: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

Sounds like you have your head in the sand over what these numbers appear to indicate. I haven't heard anyone, even the most vicious of spinners declare the generic ballot irrelevant. It is not the only indicator, but it is an important one.

[rasputin1952]

9. R's are going to bomb...

the whole thing is media driven... the R's have nothing; voters can be dumb...but stupid...nope.

Want to see something? The few time Bohener is on TV, he looks like he crapped his pants. Watch the body language, he knows he's looking at a massive loss...and the loons have split the once lockstep party...is split all over he nation.

Get out and VOTE!!!

[FBaggins]

12. Wouldn't that be something? That would END it!

I they can't win here.. They can't win.

[bigdarryl]

13. just get the HELL OUT and vote and take or drag anyone else you know

to the polls in fact vote early if its in your state

[Teaser]

14. CBS poll is swingy.

I guarantee this forum that if we lost the house, it will only be a by a couple of seats, and that the national margins will nowhere, NOWHERE, approach these polls.

Every pollster is baking in the same assumptions to their models. Partly because they believe those assumptions, but partly because *everyone else is doing it*.

We are going to see polling exposed as the clique driven enterprise it is. We may or may not hold the house, but it will not be nearly as bad as these generic ballot numbers suggest.