Charlie Cook names 13 most vulnerable House incumbents.

[tritsofme]

House Editor David Wasserman releases the Cook Political Report’s 2010 House Vulnerable Incumbents Rundown, featuring our latest race-by-race assessments for 78 of the hottest House races in the country all in one place. At today’s writing, the chances of Republican gains in excess of 45 seats are better than their chances of falling short of 40 seats. We currently rate 74 Democratic incumbents as vulnerable, including 28 in the Lean Democratic column, 34 in the Toss Up column, and 12 in the Lean Republican column. Just four Republican incumbents are in real jeopardy.

Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status. It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.

We have historically treated the Toss Up column for incumbents as the political equivalent of the intensive care unit, and haven’t commonly used gradations of danger worse than Toss Up. But we have seen some incumbents that have fallen far enough behind and remain behind for so long that we could no longer justify referring to their races as Toss Ups. Overall, 51 House Democrats have trailed their GOP challengers in at least one public or private poll taken this year, a higher number than we have ever seen before. At this point in 2006, fewer than 20 House Republicans trailed their Democratic opponents.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-10-08_10-23-12.php

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick.

CO-04: Betsy Markey.

FL-08: Alan Grayson.

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas.

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson.

LA-02: Joseph Cao

OH-01: Steve Driehaus.

OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy.

PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper.

TX-17: Chet Edwards.

VA-02: Glenn Nye.

VA-05: Tom Perriello.

WI-08: Steve Kagen.

It is almost certain that these 13 representatives will not be in the 112th Congress, but there are still 28 other races Republicans must win to secure a majority.

[Sanity Claws]

1. Alan Grayson??

I can't say I've been following the races that closely but that one surprises me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Am Posting From Grayson's District

This is a tough district for Dems. Grayson is the first Dem in thirty years to represent it.

Grayson spoke of Republicants the way we would. I don't know how well it plays with the public.

[Dawson Leery]

2. Kagen, Grayson, and Perriello are the strongest of this group of endangered incumbents.

Democrats will pick up four house seats too.

[Me.]

3. This Is Like Political Fantasy Football

I thought all the polls had Grayson ahead?

[tritsofme]

5. The only poll I have seen Grayson ahead in was an internal poll

released in a fundraising appeal.

[demosincebirth]

4. Thanks, that brightens my day.

[FrenchieCat]

6. We want your "enthusiasm" stiffled as much as possible......

because after all, if you feel we have no chance in winning,
this will increase the chance that you won't even bother
(not you personally, but in general principle).

The fact that we play these polls games makes us the biggest suckers.

[PopSixSquish]

8. I Saw Perriello on TV Last Night and He's Not Going Down Without One Hell of a Fight

The Tea Party terrorists thought it was hilarious to post his brother's address online (thinking that it was the Congressman's) which resulted in the cutting of a gas line at the brother's house. Perriello's family also took steps to alter their daily routines and step up security.

I hope to hell Perriello pulls this one out and tells these morans to get stuffed...