The DCCC releases 7 new House polls

[book_worm]

The DCCC is out with seven new polls showing five Democratic incumbents in the lead, and two challengers giving GOP incumbents serious races:

AZ-05: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):


Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 46
David Schweikert (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)

HI-01: Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):


Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Charles Djou (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This would be a Dem pick-up

IA-03: Bennett, Petts and Normington for the DCCC (10/3-4, likely voters):


Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 49
Brad Zaun (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/4-6, likely voters):


Bill Foster (D-inc): 48
Randy Hultgren (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-07: Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/3-5, likely voters):


Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 52
Ilario Pantano (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-11: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (10/4-6, likely voters):


Heath Shuler (D-inc): 54
Jeff Miller (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-15: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/27-29, likely voters):


John Callahan (D): 43
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I didn't know we had a competitive race like this featuring a GOP incumbent in PA.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/

[book_worm]

1. Here's another vulnerable GOP incumbant to add to the list

WA-08: DelBene Within 3
by: Crisitunity
Mon Oct 11, 2010 at 6:55 PM EDT
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/9-10/10, likely voters, no trendlines):

Suzan DelBene (D): 46
Dave Reichert (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±3%)

[Drunken Irishman]

2. MOE is extremely high, which makes these polls suspect.

Going by MOE alone, I'd wager the following on each race...

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 46
David Schweikert (R): 39

A seven-point difference is pretty good. So I'd feel comfortable saying the Democrats are winning this race when you consider the MOE & built-in bias of the poll.

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Charles Djou (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Guessing Djou actually leads in this race. Probably by a slim margin, though.

Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 49
Brad Zaun (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Boswell should lead, though it'll be closer than the 8 point spread given here.

Bill Foster (D-inc): 48
Randy Hultgren (R): 38

This poll is probably close to being accurate. Foster should win.

Mike McIntyre (D-inc): 52
Ilario Pantano (R): 41

Likewise, this poll's margin is wide enough to compensate for the MOE and bias.

Heath Shuler (D-inc): 54
Jeff Miller (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.8%)

I expected Shuler would win because he's pretty much run as a Republican. Still, we need to hold on to this seat.

John Callahan (D): 43
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4.9%)

I'm guessing Dent is up by a larger margin than this.

These are good numbers. However, they're also numbers provided by the Democrats. They wouldn't release 'bad' poll numbers. The worst of the batch is Callahan against Dent and I'm guessing he's probably down by a wide margin.

With that said, some of these margins best what could be considered unreliable party polls.

[book_worm]

3. With the Djou race PPP had an independent poll last week showing a 2-point Dem edge

so I think it is close in HI, but with the democratic edge in registration, I think the Dem is ahead. Also there was an article earlier today that somebody posted that indicated that just because an incumbant is under 50% doesn't mean they will lose--matter of fact most of them end up winning in the end. I also don't think just because they are party polls that they are necessarily unreliable. As a matter of fact, they are probably more reliable than some polls such as those by universities.

On the other hand when the RCCC releases their polls showing their challengers leading by small margins does that mean they are unreliable too?

p.s.
House race polls usually have a higher than average moe--I see this in both GOP and Dem polls as well as independent surveys.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Unreliable to an extent...

Certainly more unreliable than an outside poll not petitioned by a political party.

With that said, you can make a conclusion based on the poll.

If a Democratic poll has the Democrat up by a wide margin, the candidate is probably up.

If they're down, even slightly, it probably means they are realistically down and you could make the point they're down by a bigger margin.

If it's close, as the poll in Hawaii shows, it's muddled a bit more. But it could be a true toss-up.

[nevergiveup]

5. I find it almost impossible to believe

that Bill Foster is up by 10 here in Illinois 14. I talked to someone last week heavily involved in the Foster campaign and he said recent polls were showing a dead heat. This is a Republican district recently represented by Speaker Dennis Hastert and Foster was swept in during Obama mania. Foster's voting record has surprised progressives here and in a positive way and there are recent signs this district is becoming more purple but the final here will be a squeaker. IMHO

[angee_is_mad]

6. those blue dogs are a bitter pill though

I'm from NC and both of those MOFOers voted against HCR.

[jillan]

7. The thing about Harry Mitchell (D-Az) he is a BLUE dog - but hey - in Az - we'll

take what we can get :crazy: He's one of the House members that signed the letter to Pelosi saying not to vote on the extension of the Bush tax cuts before the midterms. What are you going to do? If Schweikert(R) got in, omg - he's crazy! And it was Mitchell that kicked JD Hayworth out of his job.

[bigdarryl]

8. As much as I hate to say this I think it will be the blue dog democrats that save us from loosing

the Congress

[jillan]

9. Yep, unfortunately during elections it always comes down to winning the independents. And that is

why the teabaggers don't really bother me.

[Grown2Hate]

11. It may not be IDEAL, but if that's what it takes to keep the gavel out of the hands of the

Orange Freak, I'll take it.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. It was a great deal of the Blue Dogs who helped Dems win the Congress.