It will come down to turnout, turnout, turnout:
Phoenix, Arizona. October 11, 2010. Incumbent Jan Brewer holds a three point lead over
challenger Democrat Terry Goddard in the Arizona governor’s race and over a fifth of voters remain
undecided (21%). Among those voters most likely to go participate in the election, Jan Brewer has
a larger lead in the poll (eleven points) and fewer are uncommited (15%). The Libertarian candidate
Barry Hess and Green Party candidate Larry Gist are far behind with just six percent of the vote
between the two. The Green candidate Larry Gist may be pulling as much as five percent of the vote
away from Goddard.
Democratic candidate Terry Goddard is benefitting from a huge vote from the Latino
community, 60 percent of whom say they will vote for him and only 13 percent say they favor Brewer.
Goddard also out-polls Jan Brewer among other minority voters, who in Arizona are mostly Native
American or Asian. These advantages are off-set by Jan Brewer’s anchor of voter strength among
those who classify themselves as “Very conservative.” Of these voters, 63 percent of people favor
Brewer and among voters who consider themselves “conservative” but not extremely so, the Brewer
vote is still impressive at 57 percent. Goddard attracts a fifth of conservatives. Brewer also rolls up
an impressive 65 percent of the GOP vote and out distances Goddard by only 33 to 26 percent among
Independents.
As of the time of this survey, Goddard is leading Brewer in Pima County (46% to 29%)but
trails in populous Maricopa country (41% to 36%) and in the rural counties, (28% to 26%). Brewer
draws no unique support from the ranks of women and in fact, Goddard leads among women voters
by 43 to 31 percent. Male voters lean more strongly toward Brewer and in general, men lean strongly
toward GOP candidates in this year’s elections.
http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-IV-01.pdf
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