WI Governor's Poll: Barrett (D): 47% Walker (R) 47%

[WI_DEM]

I live in WI and I've been feeling Barrett gaining ground for some time now, so this wouldn't suprise me. Barrett has run a very organized, hard-hitting campaign and his ads are great and he responds immediately to Walker's charges. In Madison, where I live, I've been surprised to see the Barrett (who is the Mayor of Milwaukee) yard signs in greater number than even Feingold signs:


WISCONSIN EXCLUSIVE II – OBJECTS IN MIRROR … Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has pulled into a tie with Republican Scott Walker in the Wisconsin governor’s race, according to a poll taken by the Democratic firm Fairbank Maslin. The survey – a tracking poll for Barrett’s campaign – shows Barrett and Walker locked at 47 percent of the vote, when leaners are included. Without leaners, Barrett’s at 39 percent to Walker’s 41 percent. Pollster Paul Maslin calls Barrett’s uptick a sign that Democratic voters are finally getting engaged with the race: “Clearly one of the chief reasons for the tied race is growing enthusiasm among Democrats … here is virtually no difference in candidate support and party identification among those most interested in the election.” The poll tested 600 likely voters from Oct. 5-7, the week after President Barack Obama held a huge rally in Madison. Read Maslin’s full memo: http://politi.co/dkJW85

http://www.politico.com/morningscore/

[Rabrrrrrr]

1. Is Walker the whiny shit whose daughter is in an ad complaining people are being mean to her dad?

I've heard that someone running for something in Wisconsin has an ad with his daughter whining that opponents of her dad are pointing out his faults.

I've seen a picture of Walker - he looks like a smarmy little fucking weasel.

[WI_DEM]

2. I haven't seen that ad, but it wouldn't surprise me. Yes he looks like a weasel.

[zulchzulu]

7. I think that was an early Johnson ad...

I do remember seeing it before grabbing the remote as fast as one can...

[karynnj]

10. I wouldn't laugh that off - Scott Brown's daughters did that in their father's campaign

and it actually helped.

It is an interesting idea if the daughter can seem appealing. I would have said, if the charges are seen as unfair already, but that might not be necessary. What it might do is humanize the candidate.

[Deep13]

3. Voters are saying...

Waitaminnit!! Those guys are NUTS!

[FBaggins]

4. Has there been any news that would support this large a shift?

Didn't PPP almost have a double-digit gap just a couple weeks ago?

If it's the president's rally... that would be spectacular (and argue for getting him on the road for the rest of the cycle).

[WI_DEM]

6. Actually the poll in governor's race has been tightening over time

Pollster Dates N/Pop Walker Barrett Undecided Margin
Rasmussen 9/29/10 750 LV 50 44 4 +6R
Marist/McClatchy 9/26-28/10 503 LV 51 43 6 +8R
FOX 9/25/10 1000 LV 49 45 4 +4R
CNN/Time 9/17-21/10 963 LV 53 42 2 +11R
DailyKos.com/PPP (D) 9/18-19/10 677 LV 50 41 8 +9R

The PPP poll actually had Feingold down by double digits but Barrett down by 9. The last poll in late Sept by Rasmussen had Barrett down by 6, I expect another poll out soon by Ras since they just polled the Feingold race.

[FBaggins]

9. Not from what I can see.

It's only been "tightening" if you take that CNN and PPP poll as accurate (when both were larger gaps than anyone had seen in the race since the early part of the year). I think they were both a bit too high.

One challenge has been that the bulk of the polling is coming out from Rasmussen... but their latest (6-point) gap seems to be about the midpoint their polling over the last several months.

Were I to look at the string of polls (ignoring this latest report), I would guess that it was about a 5-6 point race and had remained so almost all year. Which makes me question this poll unless there had been a "Maccacca Moment" that I missed. It looks more like the desperate release of an internal poll that we tend to see (from both sides) at this point in the race.

I confess, however, that I gave up on this race in mid September when republican primary turnout so dramatically reflected a gap in enthusiasm.

On edit - You may be more familiar with the "Wisconsin Communications Group" that recently released a poll there. Is this a republican internal being released in response?

http://wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=213769

[WI_DEM]

11. I think both internal campaign polls are showing the race tightening

which is why the GOP is putting more money into it. I don't discount it and I consider a 5-6 point race fairly close too. It will all come down to turnout because among registered voters as a whole the dems have a bigger advantage. I'll post the Ras numbers when they release the governor's race latter. Two weeks ago it was 6-points, I'll be interested in seeing how it is today. The Senate numbers improved for Feingold in Ras going from 12-points down to 7 in todays poll.

[ThatsMyBarack]

5. Walker Texas Ranger

Or rather Wisconsin Ranger....

[catgirl]

8. Yes!

I hope this helps Russ.

[OregonBlue]

12. Looks like it was Obama coming to Wisconsin and Dems waking up. The article says:

The poll tested 600 likely voters from Oct. 5-7, the week after President Barack Obama held a huge rally in Madison.

[yowzayowzayowza]

13. Thx for keepin us up on all the polls, WI_DEM. K&R

[DFLforever]

14. I think Barrett may pull this off

Hope Feingold is as fortunate.

[saltpoint]

15. Scott Walker just makes me puke.