IBD/TIPP generic poll 48-43 (rep). Independents prefer reps by 55-31

[FBaggins]

Independents Favor GOP Rule 55%-31% As Elections Loom :

Democratic voters are finally coming home — but are getting trampled by independents who have decided to move out of the house that Barack Obama built, according to October's IBD/TIPP poll.

After months of stories suggesting a GOP wave in November, Democrats are now shaking off their torpor and rallying behind the president and his allies in Congress, the survey found. But independents who joined them to elect Obama in 2008 have soured on Democratic leaders and their policies.

Likely voters favor a GOP Congress over a Democratic majority by 48%-43%, the poll found. Self-described independents would prefer Republican rule by 55%-31%.

"Independents don't believe that the country is pointed in the right direction. They see the November election as an opportunity to remedy the situation," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducted the poll. "Ideologically most independents — 58% — find themselves to the right of Obama."

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/550099/201010111950/Independents-Favor-GOP-Rule-55-31-As-Elections-Loom.aspx

An interesting datapoint: Only 16% want to keep HCR as it currently stands... but the rest are pretty split on whether it needs to be expanded or repealed.

[DrToast]

1. I wouldn't trust anything by IBD

I can't remember who said, but it's a good line: IBD is for people who think the Wall St. Journal isn't rightwing enough.

[impik]

2. There is no such thing "independents". 99% of them are Republicans

who are just embarrassed to admit that.

[FBaggins]

7. Lol... if that were the case, we would never win any elections.

They broke heavily for the President in '08

[wisteria]

15. LOL. n/t

[sharp_stick]

3. Unless IBD

completely discloses the numbers this poll isn't to be taken any more seriously than the PBS poll that must still be DU'd.

[fugop]

4. I always wonder about independents

One thing I wonder about (because I genuinely don't know) is whether these independents actually voted for Obama or McCain. I've suspected that the independent pool is larger and includes more from the GOP pool than it used to. So I can't help but muse over whether it's the same number of GOP + GOP leaning indies as it's always been, only some of the GOP has siphoned off to the indy column. And if so, and if the weighting still allows for the same numbers of both .... I don't know. I just wonder about those indies and whether they've actually switched sides or just switched labels. I wish there were a way to get an honest picture of which indies are deserting the Democrats and which are just changing what they call themselves.

[bigdarryl]

5. If independents think things are going to be better under the rethugs there in for

a let down because all there going to do is Investigate Obama for the next two years and propose tax cuts for the richest Americans.

[polichick]

6. Most "indies" are just lazy voters who jump onto the perceived winning side. nt

[BeyondGeography]

11. This is correct

More than anything, they want to be in with whatever is supposedly cool at the time. They are the Good Time Charlies of the American electorate. And, if their ranks appear to be growing, it is because their ranks appear to be growing.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

8. Many independents are just embarrassed Republicans. nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. DOOMED!

:rofl:

[scheming daemons]

10. IBD/TIPP is a RW polling outfit that had McCain and Obama tied on election day in '08

...

[Teaser]

12. we'll see.

at this point my main interest is in determining the extant to which likely voter screens are off this year.

I still suspect we will do a bit better than expected.

[MadMaddie]

13. At this point these polls are useless

The groups that put these numbers out spin the numbers to their flavor.

I don't pay much attention to any of them. Don't be surprised if the MSM is reporting these numbers....they don't fact check anything these days.

Forgot to add the only numbers that will count is "Voter Turnout"! So get out there and vote!!

[wisteria]

14. Blah,Blah, Blah. This poll has been out over a week and like others was done to

benefit Republicans.

[FBaggins]

17. Over a week? Wow... who knew they had a time machine?

The last day of polling was Saturday the 9th.

[DCBob]

16. Independents are mostly conservative libertarian types and were probably Repubs prior to Bush era..

Also, I think they can be swayed by which party has the momentum. If the Dems come on strong prior to election day, we will get more indies.