PPP--FL Senate--Rubio (R) 44% Crist (I) 33% Meek (I) 21%--Rubio still wins one-on-one

[WI_DEM]

Rubio continues to lead

In the Florida Senate race Charlie Crist is getting 42% of the Democratic vote and Kendrick Meek is getting 41%. It's been clear for months that unless one of the candidates broke away with the Democratic vote Marco Rubio would coast to victory and with only three weeks left until the election that's looking more and more likely. Rubio leads with 44% to 33% for Crist and 21% for Meek.

Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin. That 20% of Republicans for Rubio suggests that some segment of Meek's supporters would be none too pleased about him being forced out of the race and would not gravitate toward Crist.

In a head to head between Rubio and Meek, Rubio would lead 48-41. Meek performs weaker than Crist because although he would lead with independents by an 11 point margin that's nothing compared to the 35 point advantage that Crist has with that group.

In all likelihood Crist and Meek are both in it to the end. Crist is actually slightly more popular than Rubio, sporting a 47% approval rating to Rubio's 45% favorability. And Crist does have a strong lead with independents in the three way race, 50-27. But independents make up only 19% of the voters in Florida to 40% who are Republicans and with his former party Crist's support has pretty much evaporated to just 14%. Rubio's the only candidate in the race with a really strong base and the 82% of GOP voters he's getting right now has him in a very strong position to win and quite possibly win big.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[Tony_FLADEM]

1. If half Of Meek's support decides to vote for Crist he can win.

[Radical Activist]

28. If Democrats vote for the Democrat then a Democrat will win.

[rocktivity]

2. I'm too worried about Crist turning into another Lieberman

which I think would be worse than Rubio. A fake Rethug isn't better than a real one.

:shrug:
rocktivity

[PhilosopherKing]

11. Lieberman is a douche but

Rubio is 100X worse.

[COLGATE4]

49. I don't think Charlie is the Lieberman type. And he certainly is a

whole hell of a lot better for us than Rubio would be. Think of him more as a Blance Lincoln - with us some times, against us others. He's just basically another Blue Dog.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Rubio and Crist are tied at 46 in head-to-head.

Hello. ... It's time somebody wakes up and does the right thing.

[DCBob]

4. Yep, finally some numbers to "prove" what I and many others have been saying for months.

Crist can beat Rubio. Meek cannot. That is the reality folks. What are we going to do about it?

[wmbrew0206]

5. Early voting has already started and I think that most of the ballots are already made up.

It is too late for Meek to drop out and endorse Crist.

It would also have a detrimental effect on the governor's race which is a race that Sink can win.

[DCBob]

6. Its not too late for Democrats to come together and make a very tough decision.

There are enough votes to defeat Rubio.

[FBaggins]

16. Yes it is.

Democrats can't be pushed around by throwing a switch. There's no way to get everyone to act together like that.

Nothing changes the fact that many people show up on election day and throw the level next to the guy with the "D" (god blee 'em). Meek's name is on the ballot to stay even if you could convince Democrats to all support Crist (and you can't).

[DCBob]

23. I think Meek needs to stay in the race.. we need a big Dem turnout to help Alex Sink..

Winning the FL Gov is probably more important than winning the Senate.

[FBaggins]

24. That's an excellent point.

I disagree that the Fl Gov is more important than the Senate, but since I don't think that there is any way to beat Rubio at this point (barring a major collapse/scandal), I think that we should shoot for anything that helps our gubernatorial candidate.

[DCBob]

26. I think FL Gov is more important because of the impact on 2012 elections

Florida is likely to be the key state again determining who will be our next President.

[golfguru]

32. I would much rather have Crist quit and we can take a chance

on the only REAL democrat in the race, Kendrick Meek.

[DCBob]

33. of course you would.

[golfguru]

34. Damn right, I prefer Meek over Crist any day, any place.

[flpoljunkie]

19. Schwarzenegger endorsed Crist today via Twitter

The Terminator endorses Crist



If Sarah can do it, so can Arnold.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger used Twitter today to announce, "I endorse Gov @charliecristfl for Senate. Great leader, works with both parties, and our country needs someone like him in DC right now."

In his final days as a Republican, Crist said that he had talked with Schwarzenegger and that he urged him to run as an independent. http://www.sptimes.com/2007/07/21/State/How_Gov_Crist_became_.shtml|(See photo story here.)>

Marco Rubio's campaign had some fun with the matter. "When it comes to inflicting ‘Collateral Damage’ on the economy, Charlie Crist and Arnold Schwarzenegger are definitely ‘Twins.’ Charlie’s flip-flops have made him a master at telling ‘True Lies.’ We all know the only thing Charlie cares about is the next election. But this year, Florida will take an ‘Eraser’ to ‘The Running Man.’ ”

Posted by Alex Leary at 05:05:41 PM on October 12, 2010

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/10/the-terminator-endorses-crist.html

[DCBob]

25. Ha! The Governator comes though for Charlie..

Rubio must be fuming!

[golfguru]

27. Convince AA's in FL to abandon Meek

Easier said than done, that is just the reality.

[Radical Activist]

30. Let Crist and Rubio split the Republican vote

while Meek wins with the Democratic base. That was the only winning strategy. Democrats will have no one but themselves to blame.

[DCBob]

37. Every Dem could vote for Meek and he still loses.

Democrats only amount to about 1/3 of FL voters.

[Radical Activist]

38. That's enough to win a three way race.

I don't know why you have such a hard time admitting that every time we discuss Meek.

[DCBob]

39. Do the math.. Rubio is getting most of Repub/Indi vote.. how does Meek win even with 33%??

Why do you have such hard time admitting that?

[Radical Activist]

40. Then it's a lost cause.

Neither candidate can beat Rubio in that case, and it's too late for anyone to drop out because voting has started.

The only chance is to increase turnout among Democrats, and remember that low-information, low-income voters who are least likely to show up in the polling data are also most likely to vote for Meek. Just like the primary.

[DCBob]

41. Probably.. but alot can still can happen in the next 3 weeks.

[wmbrew0206]

48. This is why a lot of us were hoping for Meek to drop out. I hate to see a Democratic

candidate lose to an independent but Meek never really had a shot in this election and Rubio is going to be trouble. No big time democrat wanted to run against Crist and so Meek ended up being the only decent nominee that had an real experience. (I think Corrine Brown looked at running but realized that she did not have a good chance of winning the general.)

I think Meek is setting himself up for a future election and using this opportunity to raise his name recognition in the state.

[JI7]

18. so Rubio actually picks up like a couple percentage from Meek

[Radical Activist]

29. Too late. Early voting already started.

It's pointless to speculate. Democrats lost this by being too weak to stick with their own candidate.

[JI7]

7. if Meek lost the Primary , Crist would probably be leading

but looking back i think one possible way to deal with this would have been for Crist to commit to voting for Dem leadership in the Senate and Meek to drop out before the Primary and endorse him.

anything now would seem to desperate and just not help.

if it was early enough there would have been time for that to sink in with voters and any negative affects to go away.

hopefully we can at least try to win the Governor's race.

[DCBob]

10. I suspect Crist and his advisers are very seriously considering making a caucus announcement..

I think their original strategy was to ride the fence hoping to get votes from both sides.. but clearly that isnt working out as planned. A clear commitment now to caucus with the Dems would gain many more Dem votes than lose Repub votes. I suspect they are now just figuring out the best timing.

[JI7]

13. it just seems to late for that

it will be seen as too "whorish".

he might lose some indies and moderates also.

[DCBob]

14. Not at all.. many FL Dems just want to hear him say that before they switch their vote.

I think he is going to do it.

[JI7]

17. what is he waiting for ? election is like 20 days away

[DCBob]

21. Perhaps to make it more dramatic.. one week before the vote.. it would be a major media event..

Get all the big name Dems who have endorsed him all on stage. It could turn the election over night.

[wmbrew0206]

35. The number of early votes he loses will probably be about equal to the votes he picks up.

[DCBob]

36. Crist really has nothing to lose at this point.. if he doesnt do something to change the dynamics..

Rubio wins this easily.

[angee_is_mad]

42. What Big name Democrats?

other than the ones in the State Senate. Name one Nationally known elected democrat (currently in office) in DC who has come out and endorse crist. The only big name I've heard about was wexler and he is retired.
No DC politician (democrat) is going to commit political suicide to endorse the rethug over the Black Progressive Democrat. I know this is crazy season but things aren't that crazy yet.

Now you have the progressives blogs and tv pundits advocating for crist, but the politicians know what time it is. They are not going to go on a limb for a guy who won't commit to them and once in Dc will be high price whore giving favors out to the highest bidder.

[DCBob]

43. There are quite a few infuential Florida Dems who are supporting Crist.

They arent well known outside of Florida.

[angee_is_mad]

44. When you write

"Get all the big name Dems who have endorsed him all on stage," I instantly think national which would get national press. If they are all local politicians he has already hit the stump with them. Floridians know who they are. Plus Meek will trump all that with clinton, Biden and other Floridian dems in DC.
Once again no national democratic politician who is or will be looking to be re-elected will be on the same stage with crist. Urban radio and the Afrosphere will be all over that shit like white on rice.

[DCBob]

45. This is a Florida state election.. right?

[angee_is_mad]

46. with national eyes watching it

and your point?

[wmbrew0206]

47. None of them will say it publicaly but they are supporting Crist. Notice outside of Clinton,

not one big name Democrat, outside the POTUS and VP, has been to Florida to support Meek. As the leaders of the party they HAVE to support the democratic nominee. However, if you look at all the national organizations that normally support Democrats, they are giving Crist money. Do you really think they would do that without the approval of the DNC or the POTUS?

[AtomicKitten]

8. Glad to see the TEABAGGER down from 50%.

This is one effed up race.

[JI7]

9. i don't think he was ever at 50 percent

[DCBob]

12. Yes.. but it was Rasmussen.. so substract 5 and add 5.. is my rule.

So its about the same as this poll.

[AtomicKitten]

20. probably about right

:thumbsup:

[AtomicKitten]

15. Yes he was. Last week. nt

[BlueStater]

22. Well, it's better than a 25 point lead like in that other poll, I guess.

I live in Florida and will be voting for Crist. You can look down upon me all you want but that Jeb Bush wannabe the GOP is running will actually be my senator if he wins. At least Crist has a fighting chance. Meek never had a prayer from the start.

[flamingdem]

31. sob! Hope that the elderly shut down that teabag creep

.. if they knew what his plans were for SS and Medicare they'd vote against him.