Elway Poll--WA Senate: Murray (D) 55% Rossi (R) 40%

[book_worm]

http://www.publicola.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Elway-Poll-OCT12-Senate.pdf

Despite an earlier Fox News poll in Washington showing a very tight race for U.S. Senate, a new Elway Poll finds Sen. Patty Murray (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (R) by a margin of 51% to 38%, with 11% still undecided.

When those 11% were asked toward which candidate they were "leaning," an additional 4% said Murray and 2% said Rossi, giving Murray a 55 to 40% lead.

(The Elway Poll is an independent polling firm in WA respected like the Field Poll of California)

[saltpoint]

1. Love it. Go, Patty.

As much as I disliked Rossi the last cycle I like him a lot less this cycle.

[impik]

2. Hee

[oxymoron]

3. Great news!

[SeattleGirl]

4. Good news!

Patty's been running ads featuring her accomplishments. Dino has been running ads denigrating Patty, and not giving ANY ideas about what he wants to do. But then, that's typical for a Republican.

[Raster]

7. Yes, and in Dino's ads when he talks about the trillion dollar deficit...

...he neglects to mention it was rethuglicans that ran it up! When Rossi's ads talk about Murray voting for the bankster bailout, he neglects to mention it was a rethuglican pResident that begat that program and signed it into law.

Dino and his ads neglect to mention all kinds of inconvenient facts. He should have "rethuglican tool" tatooed across his forehead. Or "rethuglican fool." Either is correct.

[SeattleGirl]

10. I absolutely cannot stand that man.

He's nothing more than a lying huckster.

When he ran against Gregoire for Governor, I had a friend who said she and her husband were considering voting for him because he seemed to have a good business head on his shoulders. Well, after I edumacated her a bit about ol' Dino, she and her husband changed their minds and voted for Gregoire.

[Raster]

20. Girl, I am right there with you! I wish Dino would crawl back under rock he crawled out of.

He would be bad for Washington and bad for America!

[Raster]

5. Oh, Baybee! Make my day!

I would love to send Dino packing. Maybe he can run for dogcatcher of Spokane.

[Aristus]

6. I was driving up on South Hill this evening, and saw a bunch of Rossi

supporters on the corners, doing their best. Yelling and screaming and hooting and hollering.

I was tempted to roll down my window and call them a bunch of losers, until I remembered: we're better than they are. No need to be a jerk about it.

One guy living on the north face of South Hill has a huge Rossi sign on the roof of his barn. It's visible from the westbound lane of 512.

On Election Day, I'll be casting a proud vote for "Fighting Patty" Murray... B-)

[BlueIdaho]

8. Oh Yes Please!

Rossi is a complete disaster.

[Turbineguy]

9. This I like

Let's hope it turns out that way. But even with a difference like that, Rossi will claim "You cheated!"

[SeattleGirl]

11. Yeah, he probably will.

Guy's an asshole, but likes to blame others for that fact.

[Politics_Guy25]

12. Wow-the good polling news just keeps rolling in

We're up now in WA, NV, IL, WV, CO. Could hold 53/54 seats come January.

[saltpoint]

13. Here's a morning kick for Patty Murray, who deserves

very much to win re-election, even as her opponent deserves to be crushed in November.

[wmbrew0206]

14. I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but that poll is why outside what every other poll is showing.

According to electoral-vote.com, a poll during the same period the race tied.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It may be accurate, but I would want to see a couple other polls showing similar results before I get my hopes up.

[FBaggins]

15. The Elway poll has been consistently good for us... but that doesn't mean that it's wrong.

n/t

[wmbrew0206]

16. I've been following this race and every other poll has it much, much closer. Even another poll

taken over the same time frame has Murray down 1.

I am not saying that the poll is wrong. There could have been a big shift during this time period that this poll captured. However, I have not heard of any major developments in this race that would cause such a big shift. The percentage chance of this one poll being right and all the others taken recently being wrong is very small.

I hope it is right and is capturing a shift, but I want to see more polls confirming this one.

[littlewolf]

21. I agree

one week up 15 points and no one else showing it ... hmmm maybe .... however
I would like to see more then one polling org. showing it .... IMHO ....

[WI_DEM]

17. Never fails everytime a positive dem poll is posted people come on and pooh-pooh it

I don't care if there are other polls which show a closer race. Those polls get plenty of exposure on DU too, so why not embrace a poll that is good news. Everybody knows polls don't vote--people do and we'll see on election day. With the lack of democratic morale (supposedly) in this election it's nice to see good, positive polls.

[ampad]

18. And when you comment on the fact

You are told you only want to see polls that are good for our side. If anything Elway is consistent.

[FBaggins]

19. Nate Silver has an excellent analysis up on his page now.

It boils down to "Murray appears to have a small lead" and speculation that WA's mail-in voting may make polling less reliable.

It's a good read.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/mail-voting-in-washington-state-may-confound-pollsters/

[Raster]

22. Two paragraphs of note:

<snip>
That would point toward Ms. Murray indeed holding a small lead, one that could be somewhat more meaningful than usual given that many ballots in Washington are sent in before Election Day and it is hard to make up ground late — although Mr. Rossi obviously retains decent chances.
<snip>
A few other things about Washington State are worth considering. First, Washington, a technologically savvy state, has a somewhat higher than usual number of cellphone-only adults, which pollsters may not be capturing. It also has a fair number of Asian-American voters, who can sometimes be hard to reach because of language or cultural barriers. These things could make a difference at the margins.

[Ter]

23. The headline says 55 to 40, yet the topic says 51 to 38

Why the conflicting data?

[jefferson_dem]

24. Nate: rumors that CNN poll later today will confirm high single digit lead for Murray

Hearing rumors that CNN poll later today will confirm high single digit lead for Murray in Washington. #WASEN

http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight