Post your Senate predictions here.

[jefferson_dem]

CURRENT: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota): 56 Democrats, 44 Republicans

IN PLAY (10 DEM, 3 REP):

Alaska (R)
California (D)
Colorado (D)
Connecticut (D)
Delaware (D)
Florida (R)
Illinois (D)
Kentucky (R)
Nevada (D)
Pennsylvania (D)
Washington (D)
West Virginia (D)
Wisconsin (D)

[jefferson_dem]

1. Mine: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

MY PREDICTION: Democrats 53, Republicans 47

Alaska (R) - HOLD (IND)
California (D) - HOLD
Colorado (D) - FLIP
Connecticut (D) - HOLD
Delaware (D) - HOLD
Florida (R) - HOLD
Illinois (D) - HOLD
Kentucky (R) - HOLD
Nevada (D) - HOLD
Pennsylvania (D) - FLIP
Washington (D) - HOLD
West Virginia (D) - HOLD
Wisconsin (D) - FLIP

[terrya]

13. That's spot on. I completely agree with you.

I wish...I hope....Wisconsin will be different.

[Capt. America]

2. It would be better if you included the names:

Alaska (R) ----------Flip
California (D) ------Hold
Colorado (D) --------Flip
Connecticut (D) -----Hold
Delaware (D) --------Hold (thank you witchy woman!)
Florida (R)----------Hold
Illinois (D) --------Hold
Kentucky (R) --------Hold
Nevada (D) ----------Hold
Pennsylvania (D) ----Flip
Washington (D) ------Flip
West Virginia (D)----Flip
Wisconsin (D)--------Hold (Come on Russ!)

[Capt. America]

3. You missed Ohio (R) ---Hold

[jefferson_dem]

4. I had great expectations for OH...

but i'm afraid it's out of reach. Portman ... ack!

[karynnj]

5. I really come out very close to your prediction - 54, where I think yours should be 53

(You missed Dorgan (D, ND) as a near certain flip. )

Alaska (R)- hold
California (D) hold
Colorado (D) hold
Connecticut (D) hold
Delaware (D) hold
Florida (R)hold
Illinois (D)hold (close, but Chicago is known for its GOTV)
Kentucky (R)hold
Nevada (D)hold
Pennsylvania (D)flip (though I really hope otherwise)
Washington (D)hold
West Virginia (D)hold
Wisconsin (D) flip (though I really hope Feingold finds a way to connect to the people he served all these years)

Looking at this, if our predictions hold, very few Senate incumbents running will have lost - contrary to the media meme.

The best, most optimistic case is if sanity finally wins and Conway beats Paul and Miller and Murkowski wound each other enough that McAdams wins. If that (and these predictions happen) I think the only tea party win would be Rubio, Utah's R (no way do we have a chance) and NH's R, although I think she might be more mainstream than tea party.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Aye. How could I forget Dorgan's seat?

Thanks!

I've fixed the OP and adjusted my prediction.

[FBaggins]

7. I'm all for optimism... but how on earth can we call Florida "in play"?

It isn't even in play between Republican and RepublicanLite.

[Mass]

8. 53-47

AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota): 56 Democrats, 44 Republicans

IN PLAY (10 DEM, 3 REP):

Alaska (R)
California (D)
Colorado (R)
Connecticut (D)
Delaware (D)
Florida (R)
Illinois (D)
Kentucky (R)
Nevada (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington (D)
West Virginia (D)
Wisconsin (D)

[blue_onyx]

9. I think the GOP picks up 6

Arkansas
Indiana
North Dakota
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Republican (47) vs. Democratic (53)

[S_E_Fudd]

10. 52-48...Lieberman caucuses with Repubs in preparation for 2012..

So 51-49...nominal control. Of course Republicans have defacto control now so not a huge difference in the way the institution works.

Would not be shocked if a current Dem switches parties (Nelsen, Landrieu) to make it 50-50

Alaska (R) Hold
California (D) Hold
Colorado (D) Flip
Connecticut (D) Hold
Delaware (D) Hold
Florida (R) Hold
Illinois (D)Hold
Kentucky (R) Hold
Nevada (D) Flip
Pennsylvania (D) Flip
Washington (D) Hold
West Virginia (D)Hold
Wisconsin (D)Flip

[BootinUp]

11. Well you got the downside covered. lol. nt

[jefferson_dem]

16. I was about to give a "FLIP" to NV also but I simply couldn't get myself to believe

that teabaggin' dolt Angle could actually win. After the dreadful debate performance by Reid, however, that's probably more likely today than yesterday. Ugh...

[Milo_Bloom]

12. 50-50

[Jbowers]

14. I concur

It could have been worse, but I see Democrats keeping 53 senators, which is good considering we heard some pundits talk about Republicans obtaining a majority.

[Ter]

15. Republicans will hold onto all of their seats, and pick up seven

Republican 48, Democrats 50, Independents 2.

BTW, that is not a win. 48 Republicans will block nearly everything.

[S_E_Fudd]

17. Not much different than 40 republicans blocking everything...nt

[grantcart]

18. Democrats hold with 53 and the Republican Caucus has a challenge for leadership.

[jefferson_dem]

19. The coming DeMint(ed)-Ryan Republican Revolution.

:popcorn:

[saltpoint]

30. +1

There may be some discontented rumbling in the GOP House leadership as well if the GOP fails to win the lower chamber.

[craigmatic]

20. 52 dems 48 repigs

[mvd]

21. It will be better than people think, IMO

Alaska (R) - hold
California (D) - hold
Colorado (D) - flip
Connecticut (D) - hold
Delaware (D) - hold
Florida (R)- hold
Illinois (D)- hold
Kentucky (R) - hold
Nevada (D) - hold
Pennsylvania (D) - hold
Washington (D) - hold
West Virginia (D) - hold
Wisconsin (D) - hate to say it, but a close flip

Sestak will return the favor for Brown coming back in MA.

[Dawson Leery]

23. Colorado could go either way.

As could Kentucky.

[mvd]

24. Yes. Could make my predictions even more optimistic later

:hi:

[enough already 2]

29. Unfortunately, I see no way back for Sestak

And Toomey is nucking futs, which sucks for us in Pa.

[BootinUp]

33. Sestak is about to show people how its done

Mark my words. Have you seen his new ad?

[quiller4]

32. Here are my predictions

Alaska (R) hold
California (D) hold
Colorado (D) hold
Connecticut (D) hold
Delaware (D) hold
Florida (R) hold
Illinois (D) hold
Kentucky (R) flip
Nevada (D) hold
Pennsylvania (D) flip
Washington (D) hold
West Virginia (D) hold
Wisconsin (D) flip

[bigwillq]

22. CT stays blue.

Blumenthal will defeat Mrs. WWE.

[backwoodsbob]

25. hmm

53 47 us

[Imajika]

26. At this moment in time...

52/48 Democrats hold the Senate.

Still a lot of time though.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

27. A small Republican majority, if we're lucky.

I think that those people predicting Democratic majorities are driven by wishful thinking, in a fairly extreme way - while I'm not an expert, the overwhelming majority of the objective and the majority of the partisan analysis I've seen points to a Republican majority.

I won't be *amazed* if I'm wrong, but I think betting any other way is deeply foolish.

[Mass]

28. Not in the Senate. Actually, nearly all analysis point to a small Democratic majority in the Senate

The House is obviously a different story.

[rbilancia]

38. Are you trolling or just in need of anti-depressant meds?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

44. No.

I just try not to confuse desire with expectation.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. I hope you're right about Colorado. I hope you're dead wrong about Kentucky! n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Done

Alaska (R) R
California (D) D
Colorado (D) D
Connecticut (D) D
Delaware (D) D
Florida (R) R
Illinois (D) R
Kentucky (R) R
Nevada (D) R
Pennsylvania (D) R
Washington (D) D
West Virginia (D) D
Wisconsin (D) R

[argonaut]

35. I'm kind of optimistic, if realistic.

CURRENT: 59 D, 41 R

Assuming Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota are gone - and they are, really - that's 56 D, 44 R.

I think Murkowski will actually pull it out in Alaska, not that she's much better than Miller. But McAdams is actually within range, and this could be an upset.

Boxer holds on in CA.

CO is pure toss-up.

Blumenthal by eight in CT.

Coonslide in DE.

Rubio in FL. *vomits*

Giannoulious in IL by a tiny margin.

Reid in NV by a depressingly small margin.

Sestak makes it close, but Toomey wins PA.

Murray beats Rossi, yet again in WA.

Manchin pulls it out in WV.

Feingold, and I'm sad even typing this, is pretty much done at this point. *sigh* Senator Johnson (R).

Kentucky's interesting - Randy definetely has the edge, but I do think Conway can pull a surprise and make this one a pickup.

OH has been disappointing - Fisher's an awful candidate, and Bush hack Portman will win easily.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I Thought Murkowski Might Win But She's Not Even On The Ballot

Last candidate to win that way was Strom Thurmond in 54.

[Blue_In_AK]

39. I agree with you.

In addition, since she didn't finalize her write-in campaign until a few days ago, there is no write-up on her in the election pamphlet distributed by the state. Joe Miller has had scandal upon scandal, and I believe polling next week will show him losing support. Scott McAdams in the meantime is gaining converts every day in town hall meetings, debates and face-to-face encounters. I think he has a very good chance.

Lisa has rolled out an ad that Ted Stevens did before his untimely death expressing support for her in the primary. She didn't use it then because he was barely cold in the ground, but she is bringing it out now with the support of the Stevens family. Some people think this is a good idea, some people find it ghoulish. What I want to know is why she isn't running an endorsement from the former Alaska senator who gave her the job in the first place -- dear old dad, Frank Murkowski. She's not going to touch that one with a 10-foot pole.

I think this far out and with time to make up the difference, Scott's chances are very good.

[Blue_In_AK]

37. I don't have any on-the-ground knowledge of Lower 48 races.

All I can accurately report is that the Alaska Senate race is anybody's guess, but I'm liking Scott McAdams' chances.

[golfguru]

40. It's very volatile out there...could be any where from

44 repugs to 50 repugs on November 3rd.

[golfguru]

41. Here is my predictions, state by state

Alaska (R) --> R
California (D) --> D
Colorado (D) --> D
Connecticut (D) --> D
Delaware (D) --> D
Florida (R) --> R
Illinois (D) --> D
Kentucky (R) --> R
Nevada (D) --> D
Pennsylvania (D) --> R
Washington (D) --> D
West Virginia (D) --> dead heat
Wisconsin (D) --> R
Ohio (D) --> R

Net gain GOP = 3 seats, 4 if Manchin loses.

[and-justice-for-all]

42. Dems 57, Pukes 44...

Ellsworth (D-IN) is going to the senate and I am rather confident that Trent Van Haaften (D-IN) will be going to congress, a I do not know what you mean by "AFTER "FOR CERTAIN FLIPS" (Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota)"

[bigwillq]

43. There's 101 senators now?

:shrug:

[Radical Activist]

45. 59 Democrats. 41 Republicans.

We'll pick up Alaska and Kentucky. We have a decent shot at taking one more Republican seat in either NH or MO.

Most of the others on your list are Democratic states that will come around on election day.