WASHINGTON — With two weeks to go, the Washington state U.S. Senate race is a virtual dead heat, with Democratic Sen. Patty Murray holding a 1-point lead, 48-47 percent, over Republican challenger Dino Rossi among likely voters, according to a McClatchy-Marist poll released Tuesday.
The outcome could determine whether Republicans pick up the 10 seats they need to regain control of the Senate.
"This is indeed a cliffhanger, any way you carve up the numbers," said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which conducted the survey. "The road to a Republican majority in the Senate could go through Washington state."
Other recent polls have shown a volatile race, with Rossi having a slim lead in some and Murray up by 6 to 8 points in others.
Murray, who ranks fourth in the Senate Democratic leadership and is a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, is seeking a fourth term. Though she's had strong challengers in the past, this is by far her toughest race. Rossi, a former state legislator and a businessman, has run twice unsuccessfully for governor.
Rossi has had strong support from the GOP establishment in Washington, D.C., which was instrumental in convincing him to run. As opposed to some Democratic candidates elsewhere, Murray remains an outspoken supporter of the Obama administration's economic stimulus measure, health care overhaul and Wall Street re-regulation.
Among all registered voters, Murray held a larger lead, 47-42 percent, but Miringoff said that likely voters indicated they'd almost certainly vote and that they reflected a more accurate picture of the race.
If the Washington state race is as close as the poll shows, the outcome could take days or weeks to determine. Rossi lost his first race for governor by 133 votes. It took 58 days to determine a winner, and then a court case challenging the outcome stretched into early June of the following year.
Washington state has a history of close races. Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell won her first race for the Senate by 2,229 votes in another contest that took weeks to resolve.
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