Democrats Closing the Gap In Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin

[JohnWxy]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/20/sestak-and-bennet-running_n_769469.html

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In Pennsylvania, two new surveys from the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call and from Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling (PPP) confirm the significant tightening in the race first indicated by a set of internal Democratic party polls released last week. The PPP poll shows Democrat Joe Sestak edging Republican Pat Toomey's by a single percentage point (46% to 45%), while the smaller sample Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Sestak with a three-point advantage (44% to 41%). That result represents a ten-point net shift from Muhlenberg's last poll in early October. On the other hand, a Rasmussen poll conducted last week still showed Toomey leading by 10 points (49% to 39%).

Our standard trend estimate, which takes all of these surveys into account, now shows Toomey leading by less than four points (46.1% to 42.6%), just a whisker from toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate, which puts greater weight on the four most recent polls, shows Sestak ahead by a toss-up 1.8 point margin (44.6% to 42.8%).

Three new polls in Colorado also show a similar narrowing of Republican Ken Buck's previous advantage over Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey shows Buck's lead down to 2 percentage points (47% to 45%), while a survey by Rasmussen subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News gives Buck a one point edge (46% to 45%). Meanwhile, a live interviewer survey by Reuters/Ipsos gave Buck a 3-point advantage (48% to 45%). Previous Rasmussen and Fox surveys conducted two and three weeks ago showed Buck leading by 5 and 4 points respectively; Ipsos showed Buck leading by 9 in late August.

The new polls narrow Buck's lead on our Colorado trend estimate to just 3.2 points (47.9% to 44.7%), enough to move Colorado into toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate (shown below) reduces Buck's margin to less than two points (46.9% to 45.2%).

[louis-t]

1. Please close the gap in Michigan...

Please close the gap in Michigan Please close the gap in Michigan Please close the gap in Michigan Please close the gap in MichiganPlease close the gap in Michigan Please close the gap in Michigan Please close the gap in Michigan....

If repugs win here, we lose the movie industry and the thousands of jobs our Dem governor created.

[saltpoint]

2. Toomey, Ron Johnson, and Ken Buck...

I can't think of one nice thing to say about any of them.

Not one little thing.