Democrats Closing the Gap In Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin

[JohnWxy]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/20/sestak-and-bennet-running_n_769469.html

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In Pennsylvania, two new surveys from the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call and from Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling (PPP) confirm the significant tightening in the race first indicated by a set of internal Democratic party polls released last week. The PPP poll shows Democrat Joe Sestak edging Republican Pat Toomey's by a single percentage point (46% to 45%), while the smaller sample Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Sestak with a three-point advantage (44% to 41%). That result represents a ten-point net shift from Muhlenberg's last poll in early October. On the other hand, a Rasmussen poll conducted last week still showed Toomey leading by 10 points (49% to 39%).

Our standard trend estimate, which takes all of these surveys into account, now shows Toomey leading by less than four points (46.1% to 42.6%), just a whisker from toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate, which puts greater weight on the four most recent polls, shows Sestak ahead by a toss-up 1.8 point margin (44.6% to 42.8%).

Three new polls in Colorado also show a similar narrowing of Republican Ken Buck's previous advantage over Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey shows Buck's lead down to 2 percentage points (47% to 45%), while a survey by Rasmussen subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research for Fox News gives Buck a one point edge (46% to 45%). Meanwhile, a live interviewer survey by Reuters/Ipsos gave Buck a 3-point advantage (48% to 45%). Previous Rasmussen and Fox surveys conducted two and three weeks ago showed Buck leading by 5 and 4 points respectively; Ipsos showed Buck leading by 9 in late August.

The new polls narrow Buck's lead on our Colorado trend estimate to just 3.2 points (47.9% to 44.7%), enough to move Colorado into toss-up status. Our more sensitive trend estimate (shown below) reduces Buck's margin to less than two points (46.9% to 45.2%).
(more)

[1776Forever]

1. Don't forget Ohio: Polls: Strickland Leads In Ohio, Scott Over Sink

Polls: Strickland Leads In Ohio, Scott Over Sink
October 20, 2010 4:52 PM
By Jeremy P. Jacobs

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/polls_stricklan.php

The roller coaster ride that is the Ohio governor's race took another turn on Wednesday, as new polling showed Gov. Ted Strickland (D) taking a narrow lead over former Rep. John Kasich (R).

The CNN/Time poll found Strickland leading Kasich by a 48 percent to 47 percent margin among likely voters -- within the survey's +/- 3.5 percent margin of error. That's a significant change from the last poll, which found Kasich leading 51 percent to 44 percent a month ago.

Democrats have been claiming that the Ohio governor's has been closing since polling a month ago showed Kasich opening up double-digit lead. Democrats are, as usual, focused on Ohio and Strickland may have benefited from Pres. Obama's large rally in Cleveland last weekend.


:applause:

[vaberella]

2. How are we doing in Alaska....I think we got a chance there. n/t