I don't understand the attention being paid here to early voting

[DavidDvorkin]

I.e., to states in which Democrats appear to outnumber Republicans in early voting. In the past, has this been a reliable indicator of the final results?

I'd love to have reason for optimism, but is this just clutching at straws, or does it really mean something?

[MadMaddie]

1. What is means is the early voter turnout is flying counter to

what the media has been portraying. The MSM story has Democratic supporters not turning out at all. What is the word they have been using "Enthusiasm Gap"! The turnout has proven once again that there is no "Enthusiasm Gap" on our side.

If we continue to turnout we will have many successes.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. Interesting point

I hope that's the case.

The American electorate has disappointed me so often that I'm afraid to hope.

[Kdillard]

2. Honestly nobody knows until the votes are tallied. It could be good

as I believe it was for President Obama in 2008 or it could be bad if the votes are going to the Republican from the Dem and indy side . We already have enough people saying what a disaster Nov. is going to be for us so I rather look at it as positive that Dems are voting and we will see what happens in Nov. soon enough to either celebrate or get some alcohol because it is going to be a long two years if Republicans get the House or Senate.

[DCBob]

3. Its got to be good if Democrats are voting.

Its shows they are more "enthused" than what most analysts/pollsters have been saying.

[dragonlady]

4. Early voting may protect minorities from harassment

at the polls on election day. That is good for Dems because minorities are more likely to vote Dem. Early voting also gets the vote in the bank in case something comes up on election day and the voter can't make it to the polls after all.

[Bitwit1234]

5. AT least one thing the republicans can't program the early

votes. they are all written.

[OhioBlue]

7. It is reason for optimism

But... optimism with caution IMO.

Optimism b/c it speaks to the ground game. The early votes are not just random voters casting ballots. They area also representative of the GOTV efforts of local Dem parties, OFA, etc. In my opinion for Ohio - the ground game can make up for the so called "enthusiasm gap". The strong showing of early votes favoring Dems is a good sign. I think it changes "likely voter" models for some polls. The big question with be with registered independents - how they vote and how many turn out.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Early voting means, in the end, those people are actually voting.

It's not being left up to hypotheticals and polls. These people have actually gone out and voted - we don't have to worry about them not showing up on election day.

[DrToast]

9. You're right. It would only mean anything if this was different than any previous year

And I don't know the answer to that. I'm surprised nobody has looked into that.