http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/does-early-voting-show-re_b_773236.html<snip>
Nate Silver, political statistician extraordinaire, has posted an analysis of early voting partisan registration statistics, in states that report them, drawing upon a story by Molly Ball in Politco. I'll cut to the chase. Here is what Nate concludes in his analysis, which is largely consistent with Molly's headline that early voting shows "Signs of GOP Passion":
So, the various estimates of early voting data each show an edge for Republicans: their voters have been slightly more inclined that Democrats in most states thus far. Under the most favorable set of assumptions for them, their advantage is around 9 points; by the least favorable set of assumptions, it is more like a 4-point edge.
Unfortunately, Nate's analysis is fatally flawed. Molly provides the key damning evidence against Nate -- and against her own headline.
<snip>
In other words, in 2006 Democrats and Republicans were even in party registration among California's early voters. In 2010, so far registered Democrats have a plus 4 advantage over Republicans. Democrats are doing better among California early voters than in 2006 -- the year that Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress -- and this is evidence for GOP passion? For Nate, the answer is, "Yes." He reaches the conclusion that because there are far more registered Democrats in the state than Republicans, the 2010 early voting percentages will translate into a plus 9 advantage for Republicans over their baseline support in the state when the vote is tallied.
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