Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracking poll PA Senate: Toomey up by 8 (10/26)

[WI_DEM]

(not moving in the right direction after last week showing Sesak up by 3--but these tracking polls are notorious for their fluctuations, so we will see how things are going by this weekend):

After finding the race a dead heat last week, the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll shows Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by eight points in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40%, with 12% still undecided.

http://politicalwire.com/

[Kdillard]

1. Ugh. I was hoping Sestak could get this done. The polls are all over the place.

[FBaggins]

2. They're "all over the place" because this firm puts out a report every day...

...and they've only added 100 new responses to their rolling average.

That's a double-digit margin-of-error on the daily sample... so it's very likely that you'll see big swings even if the real race doesn't change at all.

My guess is that Sestak closed the race to about three points over a week ago and it hasn't changed much since then. Close enough for a big GOTV surge into election day... and/or a better-than-expected national environment.

[bigdarryl]

3. Everyday tracking polls are bullshit BOTTOM LINE get out and just vote

[FBaggins]

4. Well... they have their uses... but I wouldn't be comfortable with such a small sample.

The tracking polls that call 1,000 people a day (and then roll a three or four day average) can be incredibly helpful... but what is this other than an excuse to run a story every day?

[wisteria]

6. One poll shows a Toomey lead-the others show a close race.

This poll is very questionable.

[FBaggins]

8. True... but did you feel the same way when it showed us up by three?

To many, polls become more/less questionable depending on what they say.

Here's a prediction for you. If Gallup shows a continued tightening next Monday (say... to a six-point gap)... many here will start to tout the poll and the momentum it represents - even though two weeks ago they were telling us that nothing out of Gallup has any validity.

It would be a more entertaining game to watch if the stakes in the underlying reality weren't so large.

[wisteria]

5. I don't put much importance on this poll. Other polls have the race as close.

An eight point difference seemingly overnight is a stretch. And, I believe this poll limits it polling to the Harrisburg area-where there are more Repubs than Democrats.

[Cosmocat]

7. ARG ...

It is what it is ...

I can't see Sestak at 40 percent ...