Crap - Paul pulling away in KY, leads by 7 in Rasmussen, 13 in PPP.

[argonaut]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/new-poll-shows-rand-paul-up-13.php

Looks like "Aqua Buddah" wasn't such a hot idea. Yikes.

Maybe the behaviour of the Paulite thugs last night will change things, but it's not looking good. :(

[kentuck]

1. Populism works for Democrats in Kentucky.

There are more Democrats than Repubs in the state. It is not easy to get them to the polls. One way not to get them to the polls is attempting to be more "conservative" than your opponent.

[OHdem10]

3. The voters just might decide to pick the real thing over a fake.

This may be the year that the "Me Too" Democrats flop.

Instead of a contrasting ideology, too often the Dems
come off as saying I am a conservative too but nicer.

[Bad Thoughts]

2. He didn't get it

Republicans can be absolved of all their past sins. Democrats will always be damned as Democrats. It's how Christian Fundamentalism works.

[Cosmocat]

21. Yep, but lets be honest ...

he was behind, and needed something to pull Paul down ... And, frankly, IMO, more than the religious aspect, it spoke very loudly to the arrogant, self entitled and in over his head little puke Paul is ...

But, Kentucky is Kentucky, and while he did what he had to do, in the end, Rs rally around their crape unabashedly, while Ds get thrown under the bus for shiite that never even happened ...

[savalez]

26. I couldn't have said it better myself.

[dennis4868]

4. It's very scary....

that a man who wants private businesses to have the right to discriminate against blacks might just win the senate race. He wants to take this country back to the 1950s....the good ol days for the white folks!

[rfranklin]

5. But that's what the Tea Baggers are all about...

They see "their" America slipping away as the brown skinned hordes take over.

[dennis4868]

7. you are exactly right.....

I think there are many people in this country who will vote for this guy (who are not tea baggers) and are just flat our uninformed about politics....these are the people who will put this man in power not the tea baggers (if only tea baggers voted for this racist he would not have a chance to win).

[indy legend]

27. Kentucky is living proof. You can't fix stupid

[Imajika]

6. The Aqua Buddha thing was a desperation move...

...no different than Grayson's "Taliban Dan" ads.

Both know they are losing and are just throwing Hail Mary's hoping to change the dynamics of the race.

When you see a candidates run highly controversial negative ad's like this, especially near the end of a campaign, you know they are in deep trouble.

[FBaggins]

8. 13? That's got to be an outlier.

There's no question that Paul is ahead and that time is running out... but 13 points?

Not a chance. Even if it is PPP.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Never Was A Fan Of The PP Polls Even When They Favored Us

Another poll favored by the cherry pickers that comes back to bite them in the ass.

Pros aggregate. Amateurs segregate.

I remember when Zombie, errrrrrrrrrr, Zogby was all the rage here...

[WI_DEM]

13. While no poll in infallable, PPP has had a good track record this year and in 08

As a rule I trust them more than Rasmussen--but I do agree a 13 point lead does seem to be a bit large.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. That's Like Saying The Battleground Poll Nailed 96 And Zombie Nailed 00

Pollsters can be alternately accurate and inaccurate, good in one election and bad in another, and that's why you have too look at all of them.

I like a second opinion and a third opinion and a fourth and a fifth...

[WI_DEM]

9. yeah, I got the idea from hints by PPP that KY was falling away thanks to that stupid

"Aqua Buddah" ad. He should have just concentrated on medicare, social security, jobs, and mine safety.

[The Northerner]

10. According to the poll, 56% thought the aqua buddha ad was inappropriate

Conway should've focused on SS and Medicare instead.

Yikes.

I hope something can change these numbers but there's only about a week remaining before the mid-term elections.

[kentuck]

11. As I recall..

He was behind by double-digits when he ran the Aqua-Buddha ad? Then he jumped in the polls to only 5 points behind? I don't think it hurt him.

[recadna]

17. He was actually closing in with error of margin

But he had never led. Conway became inpatient and threw a bad hail mary.

[kentuck]

25. I recall a poll that had him down by about 9 or 10 points....

just before the ad?

It was a Hail Mary because needed to change the way the race was going. He was having a difficult time smoking out Rand Paul but the Buddha ad worked, in that regard.

[jenmito]

15. I think Conway's Aqua Buddha commercial and continued pushing of the story

has really hurt him. He went from being the one who was on the offense, making the case of Rand Paul being way out of the mainstream on relevant issues, to being the one on the defense, constantly trying to defend that commercial. Rand Paul got to feign outrage, talk about how devout a Christian (and family man) he "really" is, and get people on his side.

[golfguru]

16. Looks to me like crazy negative ads are back firing..

[Cosmocat]

22. except, of course, when they are Rs ...

The Chamber of Commerce has run 1000s of ads in Pa portraying Sestak as a puppy beating space alien pretty much, and it has dug him a hole he will be lucky to get out of ...

Rs have spent the whole year blasting complete nonsense ...

[golfguru]

31. Anyone who believes that puppy beating alien ad

must be a dumb republican to begin with.
I am very skeptical such ads change any voter's mind.

[PVnRT]

18. Conway needs to mention the 23% national sales tax every time he opens his mouth

[zulchzulu]

19. Face it. Kentucky is a red state.

You can't turn poisoned sewage into nourishment.

[jenmito]

20. Yes, but Conway caught up to Paul until the Aqua Buddha thing.

Conway was really making Paul look even too extreme for KY. He messed up and gave an opening to Paul and he took it.

[ProSense]

23. Kentucky may be a red state, but that poll has to be an outlier. From the article

A second poll of the race by Fox News (using Rasmussen's automated polling methods) out today seems to confirm PPP's numbers. Paul leads the race 50-43 in the poll, and internals show that voters have a more favorable opinion of Paul. Voters remain split about Paul's views, however, with 42% saying he's too extreme and 44% saying he's not.

Other recent polling has shown Conway running much closer to Paul -- the TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading 48.7-42.6. Most public polls conducted in the month of October have shown Paul leading by around five points. But as one of the first public polls to track public opinion of the spot and how it might affect behavior in the voting booth, the PPP poll suggests a tough road ahead for Conway and his supporters.

How does five to seven become 13?

[budkin]

24. People enjoy a little curb stomping

[JCMach1]

28. They elected a Repug ex-jock with alzheimers, so no shock from me

[Dawson Leery]

29. This is Kentucky afterall.

:puke:

[Jennicut]

30. Yes, there are a lot of registered Dems there that vote Repub.

Kind of strange, isn't it?
Thankfully we live in CT. Though I give a lot of props to liberals that live in more reddish states. Not an easy thing to do.

[LiberalFighter]

32. I guess the majority of Kentuckian voters agree with beating people.

But we should also wait until they count the votes.